While I was back in America, I realized that many people, if they're grasping that disturbing things are happening in Turkey at all, are missing the point. A common way of looking at it, to put things crudely, is "They're all Islamists and they always have been, they're just reverting to type."
Yes, absolutely, there are Islamists in Turkey who would like to see the country under Islamic law. But they're few and far between. What most Turks want--and what most supporters of the AKP want, what most people who voted "yes" in the recent referendum want--is stability. They want that, overwhelmingly, because they believe it's good for the economy. (And they're probably right, at least in the short-term.) They may wind up in the end getting a good dose of Islamic law in the bargain, but that's not what they're angling for.
I was talking to a Turkish friend last night about this. He was describing the attitudes of people he knew who had voted "yes." What he said tracked well with what I've heard and seen and read. "People weren't thinking about having the best constitution," he said. "They just think someone should be in charge, because if not there will be chaos, and the economy will go down the tank."
The constitutional talk is abstract to many Turks, as well it might be--after all, for example, the 1980 Turkish constitution guaranteed freedom of expression, and everyone knows that there's something of a gulf between those guarantees and reality.
People knew, in other words, that they were voting to give the AKP a lot more power. And in fact quite a few understood perfectly well that they were voting against the principle of separation of powers. But they reckoned that was a good thing, or at least the lesser of two evils. It would be far worse, in their minds, to see a serious struggle among warring Turkish power centers. That's associated--in immediate, living memory--with coups, tanks in the streets, utterly ineffectual coalition governments, hyper-inflation, economic crises that make the recent American one look like Xanadu.
I have the sense that many Turks felt, "Okay, the AKP wants all the power? Just give it to them already. Just get that settled. Let everyone stop fighting about it so we can get on with things."
Is there an Islamist overlay to this? Many Turks do feel a general solidarity with the Islamic world--"They're like us. And look, they like us!" Some, certainly, support the AKP because they think Erdoğan's really sticking it to Israel, and they think that's a good thing. But in many ways the enthusiasm for this devolves not so much from a theological understanding of that conflict as from an inchoate, smoldering anti-Westernism. Now, that's not a good thing, either. Obviously not. But it's different--in important ways, and with real consequences--from the sentiment that prompts young men to explode themselves in Copenhagen toilets en route to blowing up infidel newspapers.
It's still, I think, as it's always been, the economy above all that's driving voter behavior here. It's not even so much the sense that the AKP has really delivered on the economy, but the fear that any serious challenge to the AKP will result in chaos and the extinction of all economic hope.
Turkey is certainly becoming more and more bitterly and openly divided. But I sense the division is not truly so much between "Islamists" and "secularists" as between "afraid of Erdoğan" and "afraid of what might replace him, because this is Turkey, and things can always get worse."