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If I Was Emperor…
Apparently, some Swedes are worried that Putin has his eye on Scandinavia for a future playground. I will let Annika fill y’all in later.
Though I am fairly sure that Putin is not done helping poor lost Russians in neighboring states to secure their due right to rejoin the empire, I find it difficult to imagine an invasion of Sweden before an invasion of Estonia or Latvia. I suspect that the order of conquest will follow the path of least resistance. But perhaps not.
In any case, can we agree that would-be conquerors everywhere probably perceive Obama’s remaining years in office as an ideal time for action?
If so, might they take bigger bites than they otherwise would because of the limited window of opportunity?
Or, if you were emperor, would you let Obama’s presidency play out peacefully, in hope that America will weaken and withdraw further… and that the next American President will also be a Democrat?
Image Credit: “Map of Scandinavia” by 000peter – Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.
Published in Foreign Policy, General
The rise of UKIP and similar movements in Europe might also be considerable. Do these movements threaten renewed strength in Europe? Or do they signal increased domestic conflict and division, thereby weakening potential targets or police actors?
“If you were an emperor, would you let Obama’s presidency play out in hope that America will weaken…?”
You realize, don’t you, that the very question assumes that America is an empire and our president an emperor? It also shows up one huge problem, among several, of having an elective emperor.
You really wanna be a republic, ditch the imperial pretensions and the infrastructue of empire. You wanna be a succesful empire, ditch the democracy. As many pointed out after we first tested imperial waters in 1898, you can’t be both an empire and a republic for very long. In the end, its one or the other, not both.
That was 1898, though. Nowadays I never really hear Americans say things like that. The only question for most people now is not whether to be an empire but the best way to be an empire.
I’m sorry, I know this is a serious post, but all I can think of is the Cowardly Lion singing,
“If I were king of the forr-ehhhhhh-st.”
But seriously, I think both internal and external players show that they see now is a good time to gain territory while the golfing is good.
“You realize, don’t you, that the very question assumes that America is an empire and our president an emperor?”
No, not that I see. What it assumes is that a President is the Commander-in-Chief and dominates our military application.
The post’s general challenge is to imagine the strategies of Putin and other current strongmen.
That’s alright, Julia. The moment I wrote the title, I thought of Monty Python.
“If I went around claiming I was emperor just because some moistened bink lobbed a scimitar at me, they’d put me away!”
Yeah, but Aaron. You just confirmed it. You say the president dominates our military application. But you are assuming, aren’t you, an application in foreign countries? Ok, that’s not what you want to talk about. I know. I’m outta here! Have a good one.
Putin can and will take whatever he wants. Obama and the weak euros will not stop him and I would not support Obama if he tried.
How do you say schadenfreude in Swedish?
Coming to the aid of allies is not an imperial act.
Is the Swedish version of “Hunt for the Red October” going to feature adult themes and nudity?
‘Russian submarine’ spotted by Swedish military off coast of Stockholm
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/swedish-military-sights-russian-submarine-off-coast-of-stockholm-9805097.html
Yet another unintended consequence of big socialism is the diversion of defense funds to social welfare programs. Have the Scandinavian (and other European) countries left themselves too weak militarily to resist Russian incursion?
I expect that Putin this winter will seek to make Europe a vassal state.
He will rattle more sabers (Estonia, Poland, Sweden, etc.), in combination with turning off the Gazprom fuel supply. Europe, facing potential (albeit local) invasions, and freezing to death, will do whatever Putin wants. And the US won’t escalate the military response, so Putin has carte blanche.
Ukraine was the dry run. I think Europe will pay tribute going forward.
That’s an interesting alternative. Why conquer militarily when you can simply extort and control under a guise of independence?
Sadly, one might say that Taiwan has been generally content under a similar arrangement with China.
“Coming to the aid of allies is not an imperial act.”
Actually, it very often is an imperial act. That’s why George Washington’s Great Rule warned us against “entangling alliances.” And it’s why we never actually had alliances to speak of until after 1898 when we became an explicit and triumphant empire. Well, triumphant for a little while until we began to realize what we had gotten ourselves into.
He thought alliances would lead to empire? Evidence? Empires make alliances. Republics make alliances. Alliances, whether entangling or not, are not imperial either, they are just alliances.
Yup. The mafia does not want to run a restaurant. It wants to “protect” the restaurant. And all it needs to do is change the risk equation for the restaurant owner.
These may be the grimmest words written in my lifetime. Yes, the tyrants will act. That’s my prediction. Obama took the logic of “peace through strength” and turned it on its head. War through (American) weakness. That’s what we’ll have. What a poseur.
I don’t think waiting for Hillary is a good strategy for Putin and the others (China, Iran, etc.). She may be a left-winger, so she believes in accruing vast power to herself, but she doesn’t hold a grudge against America the way Obama does. They can’t take the chance she’d put up a fight.
Treaties must be ratified by Congress. Thus, the formation of an alliance cannot be an imperial act (unless the alliance is non-legal but matter-of-fact, of which I recall no example). If the formation of an alliance is democratic, then fulfillment of that alliance cannot be different… so long as it adheres to the original terms.
That said, I’m not entirely in disagreement. Standing alliances are very different from impromptu alliances. NATO is obviously not what it used to be, so our commitment to that alliance has become problematic.
Matty,
Have you read Dangerous Nation? It lays out the clear facts that the United States was an agressive, expansionist empire nation from the very beginning. From the War of 1812 to Spanish American War the US was the agressor taking territory by force from or exploiting financial weaknesses of European and other New World powers. In fact, it wasn’t until the turn of the century that we stopped being an agressive expansionist power.
Any country that is a treat of being invaded by Russia we should just give them a few of our nukes, problem solved for less money than we give in military aid to all countries. This would work to secure Europa from invasion regardless if we got another Obama in the office or not.
That is unless these nations get taken over 40 years from now by Islamic extremist.
Agreed. Yet, she is equally committed to American communism and an all-powerful healthcare system. As Steyn often argues: you can have extensive national healthcare or a strong military, but not both. The former is a money pit and monopolizes campaign rhetoric.
But suppose Hillary bows out for whatever reason. Suppose that Elizabeth Warren runs for President in 2016.
That’s a significant caveat, I’d say.
Pheh! Everyone knows Republicans would love to run against Elizabeth Warren. As an inexperienced first-term senator and former professor, she can’t possibly win!
Oh, wait…
I’d be surprised if Hillary drops out. She’s a grasper. She’s been after the title of “first woman president” forever. I think she’ll run even if it costs her her last breath.
“Can we agree that would-be conquerors everywhere probably perceive Obama’s remaining years in office as an ideal time for action?”
Not necessarily. Erratic people are more dangerous and unpredictable. And if the price of oil continues to decline, Putin won’t be able to flex any military muscle.
In the case of Sweden, I wonder if they would accept our Nukes if we offered. Wasn’t Scotland planning on getting rid of British Nuclear Submarines if it won independence from England?
I know it is a cruel thing to say, but if Putin invaded Sweden I would let them fend for themselves. Socialist countries have been allowed to live in a fantasy world for too long because of the U.S. military offering protection. They spend on social programs and big government instead of their own military. It would be good to see Putin make an example out of a Socialist country as a reminder to the rest of the world that bullies do exist and they will use force when it suits them.
He might not need to. If iWc is correct, then Putin could probably extort European nations with a military half as powerful as his current forces. If those nations are too ideologically weak to resist (let alone defeat) the sharia in their midst, then they might be too weak to militarily threaten a nuclear power like Russia whatever their needs.
Remember: Europe (East of France) has basically NO military at all. And the US’ total number of tanks in Germany? 32.
Israel has more tanks than the entire United States Army. How can Putin resist?
You left out, “and look down upon us for not following this lead”. It’s a tough thing to say, but I agree with you completely Pelayo.
Maybe I’m a hopeless optimist (something I’m never accused of being) but I just don’t see it. No doubt we wouldn’t do much but issue our displeasure in the strongest possible terms….but one, I don’t think Russia is all that strong a player any more and two, world condemnation would be overwhelming. Everyone loves the Swedes….they are like the kittens of Europe.