No Correlation Here. Move Along, Please.

 

Do not attempt to draw any conclusions from this fact, delivered without meaningful context, from the Washington Times:

Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low. We all know that’s impossible.

I look forward to the headline in the New York Times:  “Crime rates drop despite surge in gun ownership.”  

Published in General
Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

There are 25 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Frank Soto Member
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    The Chicago Police Department has credited better police work as a reason for the lower crime rates this year. Police Superintendent Garry F. McCarthy noted the confiscation of more than 1,300 illegal guns in the first three months of the year, better police training and “intelligent policing strategies.”

    Shame no one tried better police work for the previous 56 years of increased violence.

    • #1
  2. Wylee Coyote Member
    Wylee Coyote
    @WyleeCoyote

    Rob Long:

    Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. 

     While I am a fan of carry permits and self-defense generally, doesn’t that statistic seem a bit cherry-picked?  Couldn’t a drop in arrests cause the same effect?

    These stats mostly seem to prove that predictions about carry permits creating a wave of violence and crime are absurdly wrong.  Valuable info, but not something we haven’t seen before.

    • #2
  3. Mike H Inactive
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    I’m wondering how it compares to surrounding states. This summer has been on the cool side and we know heat leads to violence. Also, people were talking about the winter being a great success right after it was passed. Well, this was a brutal winter, so one can’t count out that people were just too cold to go out and commit crimes.

    • #3
  4. DubyaC Inactive
    DubyaC
    @DubyaC

    Rob Long – less of a RINO Squish with every passing day.  Progress.

    • #4
  5. Frank Soto Member
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    Mike H:

    I’m wondering how it compares to surrounding states. This summer has been on the cool side and we know heat leads to violence. Also, people were talking about the winter being a great success right after it was passed. Well, this was a brutal winter, so one can’t count out that people were just too cold to go out and commit crimes.

     It may well be the case that concealed carry had no effect on the crime rate.  However, the argument against concealed carry is that it will cause a rash of gun violence.  Never pans out.

    Somehow the liberal empiricists never catch on to this.

    • #5
  6. user_1184 Inactive
    user_1184
    @MarkWilson

    Rob Long: Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively.

    This makes me suspect it’s an overall drop in crime.  What does concealed-carry have to do with home burglaries and stolen cars?

    • #6
  7. user_358258 Inactive
    user_358258
    @RandyWebster

    Mark Wilson:

    This makes me suspect it’s an overall drop in crime. What does concealed-carry have to do with home burglaries and stolen cars?

     Is it only a burglary if no one’s home?  If not, then the threat of an armed homeowner may deter some.

    • #7
  8. CuriousJohn Inactive
    CuriousJohn
    @CuriousJohn

    DubyaC: Rob Long – less of a RINO Squish with every passing day. Progress.

     No Correlation Here. Move Along, Please.

    • #8
  9. user_1184 Inactive
    user_1184
    @MarkWilson

    Randy Webster: Is it only a burglary if no one’s home? If not, then the threat of an armed homeowner may deter some.

    There’s some proportion of what they call “hot” burglaries where the owner is home, and I agree it is deterred by gun ownership (compare US and UK numbers, for example).  But that seems only distantly connected to concealed-carry.  You don’t need a CCW permit to protect your home with a gun.

    • #9
  10. Big John Member
    Big John
    @AllanRutter

    I believe WSJ’s James Taranto would say, “Fox Butterfield, Is That You?”  Or at least he would before “Best of the Web” disappeared behind the brownstone paywall at WSJ.

    • #10
  11. Sandy Member
    Sandy
    @Sandy

    The ruling on concealed carry may eventually cause the crime rate to drop, but if Chicago Magazine is correct, the reason for the improvement is that the police are cooking the books.  What a shock.

    • #11
  12. user_278007 Inactive
    user_278007
    @RichardFulmer

    Huh.  People respond to incentives.  Who knew?

    • #12
  13. Joe Escalante Member
    Joe Escalante
    @JoeEscalante

    We will have more data from California soon as we are now a “must issue” state and thousands of people in counties like Orange, San Diego, and Ventura are getting their CCW permits. This is something I never thought I would see in my lifetime. One judge made it happen. Another could make it un-happen, but for now…it’s happening.

    • #13
  14. dittoheadadt Inactive
    dittoheadadt
    @dittoheadadt

    Big John:

    I believe WSJ’s James Taranto would say, “Fox Butterfield, Is That You?” Or at least he would before “Best of the Web” disappeared behind the brownstone paywall at WSJ.

     Google the BOTW headline verbatim each day.  Then click on the appropriate link.  Voila!  No more brownstone.

    • #14
  15. dittoheadadt Inactive
    dittoheadadt
    @dittoheadadt

    Frank Soto:

    Mike H:

    I’m wondering how it compares to surrounding states. This summer has been on the cool side and we know heat leads to violence. Also, people were talking about the winter being a great success right after it was passed. Well, this was a brutal winter, so one can’t count out that people were just too cold to go out and commit crimes.

    It may well be the case that concealed carry had no effect on the crime rate. However, the argument against concealed carry is that it will cause a rash of gun violence. Never pans out.

    Somehow the liberal empiricists never catch on to this.

     No, they’d (they’ll?) say “The crime rate would be even lower if not for the gun law.”  Just like they do with everything – unfalsifiable, unprovable assertions presented as facts, and sold as such by the corrupt American stenographers-for-the-Left media.

    • #15
  16. Last Outpost on the Right Inactive
    Last Outpost on the Right
    @LastOutpostontheRight

    In my feeble mind, I always compare Chicago and Houston. Both are big cities, with lots of potential for mischief. But there does seem to be a difference between Illinois and Texas with regards to a culture of gun ownership. I dunno … maybe I’m just imagining it. :)
    Anyway, Houston doesn’t seem to have the gangland violence that Elijah Cummings, Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson conveniently ignore in Chicago.

    • #16
  17. Rob Long Contributor
    Rob Long
    @RobLong

    Mark Wilson:

    Rob Long: Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively.

    This makes me suspect it’s an overall drop in crime. What does concealed-carry have to do with home burglaries and stolen cars?

     Fear that the guy in the house, or watching his parked car get broken into, is packing.

    • #17
  18. Rob Long Contributor
    Rob Long
    @RobLong

    dittoheadadt:

    Big John:

    I believe WSJ’s James Taranto would say, “Fox Butterfield, Is That You?” Or at least he would before “Best of the Web” disappeared behind the brownstone paywall at WSJ.

    Google the BOTW headline verbatim each day. Then click on the appropriate link. Voila! No more brownstone.

     Simply one of the best places on the web, ever.  I am a Taranto Groupie!

    • #18
  19. Rob Long Contributor
    Rob Long
    @RobLong

    CuriousJohn:

    DubyaC: Rob Long – less of a RINO Squish with every passing day. Progress.

    No Correlation Here. Move Along, Please.

     Oh, Lord.  Don’t get too excited.  I’m still a total squish.  But I have my moments.

    • #19
  20. Salamandyr Inactive
    Salamandyr
    @Salamandyr

    Rob, it would be interesting some time to see you post an essay exploring what you are “squish-y” about; or what you perceive yourself to be squishy about.  

    I’d be interested to know where you think the GOP should lighten up, and where you think they should go harder.

    • #20
  21. user_1184 Inactive
    user_1184
    @MarkWilson

    Rob Long:

    Mark Wilson:

    Rob Long: Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively.

    This makes me suspect it’s an overall drop in crime. What does concealed-carry have to do with home burglaries and stolen cars?

    Fear that the guy in the house, or watching his parked car get broken into, is packing.

    But you don’t need a CCW permit to defend your house with a gun.

    • #21
  22. Last Outpost on the Right Inactive
    Last Outpost on the Right
    @LastOutpostontheRight

    Mark Wilson:

    Rob Long:

    Fear that the guy in the house, or watching his parked car get broken into, is packing.

    But you don’t need a CCW permit to defend your house with a gun.

    The overall drop in crime argument holds water … but it is simply an outcome. An outcome of what?
    In my opinion, the very existence of CCW has become a factor for the criminal to consider: not just in deciding who to victimize, or what to rob, but in whether to commit the crime at all. Now the criminal can be less confident that their victim isn’t packing.

    • #22
  23. user_1184 Inactive
    user_1184
    @MarkWilson

    Last Outpost on the Right: In my opinion, the very existence of CCW has become a factor for the criminal to consider: not just in deciding who to victimize, or what to rob, but in whether to commit the crime at all.

    I agree that gun ownership is a factor in the decision to burglarize a house.  And CCW would be a factor in the decision to mug somebody.  But I just can’t see the connection between CCW and burglary.  CCW pertains to guns in public places and have nothing to do with guns in the home.  Could somebody explain the connection they apparently see that I am missing?

    • #23
  24. user_358258 Inactive
    user_358258
    @RandyWebster

    I don’t know what the law was like in Chicago, but in DC it was illegal to own a gun, even if you kept it at home.

    • #24
  25. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    So, violent crime has dropped ever since Rahm Emmanuel became mayor?

    He must be doing a really great job.

    • #25
Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.