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No Correlation Here. Move Along, Please.
Do not attempt to draw any conclusions from this fact, delivered without meaningful context, from the Washington Times:
Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in Chicago has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low. We all know that’s impossible.
I look forward to the headline in the New York Times: “Crime rates drop despite surge in gun ownership.”
Published in General
Shame no one tried better police work for the previous 56 years of increased violence.
While I am a fan of carry permits and self-defense generally, doesn’t that statistic seem a bit cherry-picked? Couldn’t a drop in arrests cause the same effect?
These stats mostly seem to prove that predictions about carry permits creating a wave of violence and crime are absurdly wrong. Valuable info, but not something we haven’t seen before.
I’m wondering how it compares to surrounding states. This summer has been on the cool side and we know heat leads to violence. Also, people were talking about the winter being a great success right after it was passed. Well, this was a brutal winter, so one can’t count out that people were just too cold to go out and commit crimes.
Rob Long – less of a RINO Squish with every passing day. Progress.
It may well be the case that concealed carry had no effect on the crime rate. However, the argument against concealed carry is that it will cause a rash of gun violence. Never pans out.
Somehow the liberal empiricists never catch on to this.
This makes me suspect it’s an overall drop in crime. What does concealed-carry have to do with home burglaries and stolen cars?
Is it only a burglary if no one’s home? If not, then the threat of an armed homeowner may deter some.
No Correlation Here. Move Along, Please.
There’s some proportion of what they call “hot” burglaries where the owner is home, and I agree it is deterred by gun ownership (compare US and UK numbers, for example). But that seems only distantly connected to concealed-carry. You don’t need a CCW permit to protect your home with a gun.
I believe WSJ’s James Taranto would say, “Fox Butterfield, Is That You?” Or at least he would before “Best of the Web” disappeared behind the brownstone paywall at WSJ.
The ruling on concealed carry may eventually cause the crime rate to drop, but if Chicago Magazine is correct, the reason for the improvement is that the police are cooking the books. What a shock.
Huh. People respond to incentives. Who knew?
We will have more data from California soon as we are now a “must issue” state and thousands of people in counties like Orange, San Diego, and Ventura are getting their CCW permits. This is something I never thought I would see in my lifetime. One judge made it happen. Another could make it un-happen, but for now…it’s happening.
Google the BOTW headline verbatim each day. Then click on the appropriate link. Voila! No more brownstone.
No, they’d (they’ll?) say “The crime rate would be even lower if not for the gun law.” Just like they do with everything – unfalsifiable, unprovable assertions presented as facts, and sold as such by the corrupt American stenographers-for-the-Left media.
In my feeble mind, I always compare Chicago and Houston. Both are big cities, with lots of potential for mischief. But there does seem to be a difference between Illinois and Texas with regards to a culture of gun ownership. I dunno … maybe I’m just imagining it. :)
Anyway, Houston doesn’t seem to have the gangland violence that Elijah Cummings, Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson conveniently ignore in Chicago.
Fear that the guy in the house, or watching his parked car get broken into, is packing.
Simply one of the best places on the web, ever. I am a Taranto Groupie!
Oh, Lord. Don’t get too excited. I’m still a total squish. But I have my moments.
Rob, it would be interesting some time to see you post an essay exploring what you are “squish-y” about; or what you perceive yourself to be squishy about.
I’d be interested to know where you think the GOP should lighten up, and where you think they should go harder.
But you don’t need a CCW permit to defend your house with a gun.
The overall drop in crime argument holds water … but it is simply an outcome. An outcome of what?
In my opinion, the very existence of CCW has become a factor for the criminal to consider: not just in deciding who to victimize, or what to rob, but in whether to commit the crime at all. Now the criminal can be less confident that their victim isn’t packing.
I agree that gun ownership is a factor in the decision to burglarize a house. And CCW would be a factor in the decision to mug somebody. But I just can’t see the connection between CCW and burglary. CCW pertains to guns in public places and have nothing to do with guns in the home. Could somebody explain the connection they apparently see that I am missing?
I don’t know what the law was like in Chicago, but in DC it was illegal to own a gun, even if you kept it at home.
So, violent crime has dropped ever since Rahm Emmanuel became mayor?
He must be doing a really great job.