Reelection odds are generally pretty good for a sitting president. It is no mistake that since WWII the only sitting presidents to lose reelection were Carter and Bush 41; even presidents who are suffering at the polls and who are dealing with major political crises stand better than even odds of getting reelected.That is why some, particularly on the left, have casually dismissed the idea that President Obama, even with very his poor polling, is in danger of actually losing his reelection bid.
But recent evidence from the always-reliable Gallup poll suggests that president Obama's disapproval rate may, in fact, almost preclude a victory next year. President Obama's weekly average approval rating now hovers around 40%, a rating that includes several days worth of sub 40 numbers and a general trend that shows no sign of improving, at least in the short term. Baring any sort of major economic recovery in the very near future, or another major overseas success that we haven't yet considered (unfortunately for the president, you can only assassinate Bin Laden once) this is the reality that we will be dealing with between now and the election. Since 1960, there is only one example of a president who's approval rating changed dramatically in the last year of his presidency, and that is the aforementioned Bush I, whose once high approval rating—which was bolstered by a roaring victory in the Gulf War—plummeted because of the ongoing pain of recession and a reversal on his much ballyhooed insistence on not raising taxes. Realistically, the only major fluctuations in polling from about a year out is between 5%-8%, giving us a viable range of what we could be looking at from President Obama in the next year or so.
This brings me to a rather prescient post by Nate Silver from earlier this year about calculating reelection odds looking just at Gallup Poll approval ratings. Silver:
What does this mean for Barack Obama? Right now, we’re still in the period where the most useful number for estimating his re-election chances is not his approval rating but rather the historical track record of incumbent presidents. As I wrote on Wednesday, since the Civil War, 73 percent of incumbent presidents who sought another term won, as have 70 percent since World War II. Plugging Mr. Obama’s current numbers into the regression model that I described above yields a 65 percent likelihood of re-election — but again, this is a really rough guess, based mostly on the high historical batting average for incumbents rather than anything to do with Mr. Obama himself.
What we can say is important is the range in which Mr. Obama’s approval ratings have been varying in recent months: between about 45 and about 50 percent. If Mr. Obama’s approval rating is at the top of that range, 50 percent, on Nov. 6, 2012 — about where it is now — the model figures that his chances of winning re-election will be greater than 80 percent. But if his approval rating is at the bottom of the range instead, at 45 percent, his chances for a second term will be only about one in three, and he’ll have to hope that the Republican nominee is a weak one.
Read the whole thing, but I want pay special attention to Silver's use of logistic regression modeling to predict overall reelection odds. What he finds is not terribly surprising in and of itself; one would certainly like to believe that the public approval of a president at least vaugely played some role in his potential for reelection. What this method does discover that is remarkable is the gigantic difference between very similar approval ratings. Silver, trying to predict reelection, comes up with this helpful graphic to better grasp the nuance of what is being said here; minute differences in approval rating over time have a great predictive power in assessing the likelihood of reelection.
Suffice it to say, his current 40% approval rating about 14 months away from the election puts his reelection odds right around 40%. What is even more significant is that his reelection odds absolutely tank in the ensuing months. The widest 5 point gap is between 40% and 45% right up until the election, where 45% approval odds drops precipitously.
The reason statistical persons like to use metrics like the "approval rating" system created by Gallup over 70 years ago is that, frankly, it works well. This observation about the relationship between approval rating and the outcome of reelection campaigns is hardly a controversial one; the fact remains that since the political realignment that took place in the mid 60s to the early 70s, not a single sitting president has won reelection with a Gallup approval rating below 50% a year before the election. Certainly, the concept of "approval" is nebulous and undefined, but this is one of the reasons, interestingly enough, it is as good a predictor as it is. The reason people use the Gallup poll is because the question is beautiful in its simplicity and continuity; they have been using the exact same wording for the question since its inception, allowing a perfect comparison from day to day and year to year. Because "approval" is left undefined, we know people will generally interpret this very differently; disaffected supports can "disapprove" of a president for not taking the extreme ideological route they had hoped he would take, but they would never consider voting for the other guy given their ideological bent. So it is not a one-to-one stand in for voting; what it does capture, however, is the broad change in public opinion on the president, and however silly it sounds, the difference between a 45% approval rating and a 50% approval rating for reelection odds is rather large.
The overall impact of his declining approval rating may end up snowballing on the current president. There is ample evidence to suggest that a President with lower approval ratings end up getting fewer things done legislatively and, therefore, lives and dies on the vitality of the economy. Given the current state of the economy, I would venture to guess that this presidency may, in fact, be only for a single term. Later, I will explore various economic models of predicting presidential reelection, and try to find something that incorporates both economic data, popularity, and other exogenous factors.