Your Daily Poll Update: Massachusetts Moves

Well, it’s not as exciting as the dramatic shift we saw yesterday, but here are some of the polls released this morning:

Rasmussen Tracking    Obama 48, Romney 48    Tie

Pennsylvania: Siena    Obama 43, Romney 40    Obama +3

North Dakota: Mason-Dixon    Romney 54, Obama 40    Romney +14

Massachusetts: WBUR/MassINC    Obama 52, Romney 36    Obama +16

Massachusetts Senate: WBUR/MassINC    Warren 45, Brown 48    Brown +3

North Dakota…

  1. Evan Pokroy

    Is that Rasmussen number at the top national?

  2. Doug Lee

    Rassmussen continues to oversample Democrats +3D, when his own polling shows Republicans outnumbering Democrats +2.3.  Without weighting Romney is +6 in Rassmussen, see http://unskewedpolls.com/

    This does not apply to Warren/Brown because it’s a national average.  Still, the GOP has a distinct advantage in voter intensity this year, which was enough to give Brown the “Kennedy seat” not that long ago.  It will be interesting to see what happens there.

  3. Mollie Hemingway
    C
    Evan Pokroy: Is that Rasmussen number at the top national? · 37 minutes ago

    Nope. General election nationwide.

  4. tabula rasa

    Question for Midwesterners:  Is the ND race that close?  I thought Berg had pulled away.

  5. Jolly Roger

    I was actually called for the Rasmussen poll on Sunday night and answered it. All machine run and took a couple of minutes. I would not one important point that could skew polling— it was Sunday night on a holiday weekend. A lot of people were away on vacation in my area,  out having dinner with family members, or watching baseball.  I am not sure how this would affect the polls, but I would imagine there is some correlation between political leanings and being home at the time.

  6. wmartin

    The Rasmussen is good news. It looked as though the jobs report had completely stopped Romney’s surge when Obama had good polling days on Saturday and Sunday. I was pretty sure Obama would go slightly ahead today as Romney’s big Friday night dropped off, so Romney must have had a pretty good night Monday to keep it even.

  7. Frozen Chosen

    The tsunami predicted by Prof Rahe is forming.  I think Romney gets over 300 electoral votes.

  8. wmartin

    Gallup went to likely voter today – R 49 O47!!!

    Let’s be careful, guys….still a month to go.

  9. captainpower

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

    RCP Average: Obama + 0.5

    Poll

    Date

    Sample

    MoE

    Obama (D)

    Romney (R)

    Spread

    RCP Average

    9/26 – 10/8

    47.9

    47.4

    Obama +0.5

  10. Umbra Fractus
    Jolly Roger: I was actually called for the Rasmussen poll on Sunday night and answered it. All machine run and took a couple of minutes. I would not one important point that could skew polling— it was Sunday night on a holiday weekend. A lot of people were away on vacation in my area,  out having dinner with family members, or watching baseball.  I am not sure how this would affect the polls, but I would imagine there is some correlation between political leanings and being home at the time. · 57 minutes ago

    Considering the holiday in question (Columbus Day) lots of lefties are probably self-righteously not celebrating the holiday.

  11. captainpower
    Umbra Fractus

    Considering the holiday in question (Columbus Day) lots of lefties are probably self-righteously notcelebrating the holiday. · 3 minutes ago

    How widespread is observance of Columbus Day as a work-free holiday?

    From wikipedia:

    It is generally observed nowadays by banks, the bond market, the U.S. Postal Service, other federal agencies, most state government offices, many businesses, and most school districts

  12. Sumomitch

    In a weird way, I am swinging back to the Rahe view: weird, because, I think whoever wins, will win decisively, i.e., pretty much all the swing states will swing to the same ticket.  I just am still not sure whether that will be Romney/Ryan or Obama/Biden. Clearly, the momentum is now with Romney, and Obama will need something big to change that, either a debate win, a Romney gaffe, or… a last minute Chicago dirty trick (amplified of course by a pliant media.)

  13. Albert Arthur

    Romney is now +.7 in the realclearpolitics.com average of polls.

  14. Albert Arthur
    Robert Mitchell: In a weird way, I am swinging back to the Rahe view: weird, because, I think whoever wins, will win decisively, i.e., pretty much all the swing states will swing to the same ticket.  I just am still not sure whether that will be Romney/Ryan or Obama/Biden. Clearly, the momentum is now with Romney, and Obama will need something big to change that, either a debate win, a Romney gaffe, or… a last minute Chicago dirty trick (amplified of course by a pliant media.) · 9 minutes ago

    I still think that either Obama will squeak by, Romney will squeak by, or Romney will win decisively.

  15. wmartin
    Robert Mitchell: In a weird way, I am swinging back to the Rahe view: weird, because, I think whoever wins, will win decisively, i.e., pretty much all the swing states will swing to the same ticket.  I just am still not sure whether that will be Romney/Ryan or Obama/Biden. Clearly, the momentum is now with Romney, and Obama will need something big to change that, either a debate win, a Romney gaffe, or… a last minute Chicago dirty trick (amplified of course by a pliant media.) · 12 minutes ago

    Or just the fact that Obama has a ridiculous amount of money to spend in the last four weeks.

  16. James Of England

    It was a widely noted phenomenon that Mitt only had the votes when he needed them; he’d often come from behind late in the game. Even after Super Tuesday, he’d rather save money than win unnecessary races.

    At the moment, I think that this is Obama’s best case, if we did nothing more than our baseline:

    Obama-s-Best-Case.png

    With luck, the Mormons who disappointed us in Colorado in the primaries will get their act together, and we’ll get this as a baseline + LDS:

    Obama-s-Best-Case-plus-LDS.png

    I have confidence in the Nevada LDS; we’re down in the polls, but the foot soldiers in Nevada are energized, while their footsoldiers (unions) are not at their best. Mitt is supporting those efforts. In Colorado, the LDS appear less impressive, but they don’t need to achieve so much.

    That map sees us at 250 EV. We’d need either Virginia or Ohio and one other non-New Hampshire state (Iowa seems like the most likely choice).

    To get to the second map, we need to spend, and volunteer, in Florida, Nevada, Omaha, Colorado, and North Carolina. To win, we need to turn out more than Obama in Ohio, Virginia, and elsewhere.

  17. wmartin

    This has been a great day,and I have been uncharacteristically jubilant,  but a little bad news from Allahpundit at Hot Gas – Gallup says that, after losing his 5 point lead in their daily tracker over the last week, Obama is back out to a 5 point lead over the last 36 hours. Not sure how they get that, but it may indicate this is just a bounce that will recede quickly.

  18. James Of England
    Lucy Pevensie

    But  isn’t winning a clear mandate a good use of money? What is the better use for the money, which has been donated for the purpose of getting him elected? ·

    Getting him elected.

    Spending enough to build up a truly massive GOTV operation in Pennsylvania or Michigan may be the way forward, but he can’t spend that sort of money on Pennsylvania and Michigan. There’s still an impressive GOTV operation building in Michigan, and some in Pennsylvania, and I’ve no doubt (although I have no personal knowledge) that Wisconsin’s charged up and ready to go. I don’t know which states will drop, but if Mitt’s campaign needs to flip the LDS states + 2 more, I don’t see him spending fortunes trying to flip more than a couple of blue states. If Mitt had a very large fundraising/ volunteering advantage, things might be different, but that’s not the world that we live in; Obama has had more of both.

    For where Mitt will focus on, his next big policy speech (on rural America) might be helpful, but it’s probably not. All the battleground states are partly rural.

  19. wmartin
    James Of England

     

    Spending enough to build up a truly massive GOTV operation in Pennsylvania or Michigan may be the way forward, but he can’t spend that sort of money on Pennsylvania and Michigan. There’s still an impressive GOTV operation building in Michigan, and some in Pennsylvania, and I’ve no doubt (although I have no personal knowledge) that Wisconsin’s charged up and ready to go. I don’t know which states will drop, but if Mitt’s campaign needs to flip the LDS states + 2 more, I don’t see him spending fortunes trying to flip more than a couple of blue states. If Mitt had a very large fundraising/ volunteering advantage, things might be different, but that’s not the world that we live in; Obama has had more of both.inutes ago

    Edited 5 minutes ago

    What is the big difference between this and previous GOTV ops? Besides, just lots of money? Or, more specifically, what is all that money getting us?

  20. Crow

    Rasmussen’s latest has Romney over Obama in NH…..hey, don’t demean our 4 electoral votes!

Want to comment on stories like these? Become a member today!

You'll have access to:

  • All Ricochet articles, posts and podcasts.
  • The conversation amongst our members.
  • The opportunity share your Ricochet experiences.

Join Today!

Already a Member? Sign In