Why Romney Will Win Big

I find it curious that so many conservatives are still on the edge of their seats regarding the presidential election. Maybe it’s because conservatives tend to be more pessimistic, more emotionally restrained, and more cautious in their outlook than liberals. I’m here to tell you that this time your natural pessimism is misplaced. We’re going to win this one big.

If you want to allow some optimism into your life, the first thing you have to do is stop following the polls. Most polls are conduc…

  1. ctruppi

    You mean even when gas plummets to $2.00/gallon and Oct unemployment miraculously comes in at 5% next week? (ok, end sarcasm).  I am completely on board with you here.  I find it totally absurd that every safe blue state is honestly polling at O with 10-15 point declines from ’08.  Yet every swing state is very similar to ’08 or worse for Romney.  THis just doesn’t pass the smell test to me.

  2. Peter Robinson
    C

    “You don’t need to look at the numbers, only the trends.”

    That, Paules, strikes me as the critical insight–and every pollster and political scientist I know would agree with it.

    The ground game still worries me, but the trends are a-trending our way.

  3. dittoheadadt

    I find absurd the notion that an electorate that went historically GOP just 2 years ago, in huge part in response to Obambi and the Dems (who haven’t changed one iota since then), would pivot back to them now.  Doesn’t pass the sniff test, at least not to me.

  4. katievs

    Wait, what?  Ricochet’s own “America is going down no matter what” pessimist confidently claiming Romney will win big? 

  5. katievs

    Personally, I’ve been serenely confident since early September that Romney will win and that it won’t be close.  But yesterday and today I’ve had knots in my stomach and deep worries about the boundless corruption and brazen criminality of the leftish establishment and its media minions.

    So this post is consoling.

  6. Severely Ltd.

    So let it be (well) written, so let it be done.

    And well reasoned. I’m lined up right behind Paul Rahe (deserving of first mention), you, and Peter R.

    I think I even see Rob Long in the back of the line there.

  7. ConservativeWanderer
    ~Paules: If you scrutinize the methodology, you will find some absurd assumptions.  Democrats are simply not going to pour out in numbers this year that are 5% to 7% higher than the Republican base.  We have voter enthusiasm this year on our side by a wide margin.  · · 39 minutes ago

    We are also not going to see 85%+ voter turnout, as some polls seem to think we are.

  8. wmartin
    dittoheadadt: I find absurd the notion that an electorate that went historically GOP just 2 years ago, in huge part in response to Obambi and the Dems (who haven’t changed one iota since then), would pivot back to them now.  Doesn’t pass the sniff test, at least not to me. · 14 minutes ago

    Yeah, that’s why Bob Dole smashed Clinton in 1996. Oh, wait….

  9. The Mugwump
    katievs: Wait, what?  Ricochet’s own “America is going down no matter what” pessimist confidently claiming Romney will win big?  · 7 minutes ago

    These are two separate questions, dear.

  10. Ohio Steve
    My prediction is that Mr. Romney will win with 320 electoral votes and 53% of the national vote.  That’s my conservativeestimate.  It could be a lot worse for Mr. Obama and probably will be.  So, buck it up, people.  This one is nearly in the bag.                · · 39 minutes ago

    I love the optimism here. But, unless something big happens (or unless the polling in blue states is beyond-the-pale skewed), 337 is the maximum number of electoral votes Romney could get (by taking every state currently “in play”). 320 as a conservative estimate doesn’t seem to hold water. And even some of these “in-play” states (Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular) are an uphill climb for any Republican.

    Don’t get me wrong — Romney will win. But he’ll win with between 285 and 301 electoral votes.

  11. The Mugwump
    Ohio Steve

    My prediction is that Mr. Romney will win with 320 electoral votes and 53% of the national vote.  That’s my conservativeestimate.  It could be a lot worse for Mr. Obama and probably will be.  So, buck it up, people.  This one is nearly in the bag.                · · 39 minutes ago

    I love the optimism here. But, unless something big happens (or unless the polling in blue states is beyond-the-pale skewed), 337 is themaximumnumber of electoral votes Romney could get (by taking every state currently “in play”). 320 as aconservativeestimate doesn’t seem to hold water. And even some of these “in-play” states (Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular) are an uphill climb for any Republican.

    Don’t get me wrong — Romney will win. But he’ll win with between 285 and 301 electoral votes. · in 0 minutes

    Yea of litttle faith.

  12. dittoheadadt
    wmartin

    dittoheadadt: I find absurd the notion that an electorate that went historically GOP just 2 years ago, in huge part in response to Obambi and the Dems (who haven’t changed one iota since then), would pivot back to them now.  Doesn’t pass the sniff test, at least not to me. · 14 minutes ago

    Yeah, that’s why Bob Dole smashed Clinton in 1996. Oh, wait…. · 10 minutes ago

    I’ll grant your point…if you’ll argue that Dole and Romney are candidates of equal skill, ability, and appeal and that they ran comparable presidential campaigns, and that Clinton and Obama are candidates of equal political skill and savvy and that they ran comparable presidential campaigns, and that the makeup of today’s Democrat Party is substantially the same as 1996′s, and that there’s no substantive difference between our economy today and 1996′s economy, and that world affairs today are the same as they were in 1996.

    Deal?

  13. katievs
    ~Paules

    katievs: Wait, what?  Ricochet’s own “America is going down no matter what” pessimist confidently claiming Romney will win big?  · 7 minutes ago

    These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago

    Ah.  To me, they don’t seem so.  That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result.  Maybe sooner, maybe later.  If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted.  We’ll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union.

  14. The Mugwump
    katievs

    ~Paules

    katievs: Wait, what?  Ricochet’s own “America is going down no matter what” pessimist confidently claiming Romney will win big?  · 7 minutes ago

    These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago

    Ah.  To me, they don’t seem so.  That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result.  Maybe sooner, maybe later.  If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted.  We’ll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union. · 9 minutes ago

    Democrats have already been threatening via twitter that they will riot in the event of an Obama defeat.  I regard this possibility as a near certainty.  Big city mayors should prepare for such contingencies.

    Turning around the ship of state will take generations.  I won’t be alive long enough to see the outcome, but I’m willing to lend myself to start the process.   

  15. Vance Richards
    katievs

    ~Paules

    katievs: Wait, what?  Ricochet’s own “America is going down no matter what” pessimist confidently claiming Romney will win big?  · 7 minutes ago

    These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago

    Ah.  To me, they don’t seem so.  That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result.  Maybe sooner, maybe later.  If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted.  We’ll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union. · 37 minutes ago

    That sums up my level of optimism as well, “might not be impossible to save the union.” I pray for America, because we are past the point where one election will save us.

  16. Doc Stephens

    Intuition is wonderful, but I always feel better when my intuition is supported by evidence.  The only statistical evidence is found in the polls, but the polls are suspect.  In 2008, Rasmussen was the most accurate in predicting the final outcome of that election, so I’ve been analyzing their trends in the Obama vs. Romney tracking poll, including the bumps and bruises, since last January.  I have lots of data, including their internals. 

    Using only the trends since the first debate, through October 24, and forecasting using a linear regression, Romney wins 50.35% to 46.20% in the popular vote. 

    It is hard to imagine him losing the electoral college with such a margin.

    I’ve also followed the independent likely voter trends in the eleven swing states as defined by Rasmussen.  Romney has maintained a significant lead with this group following the debates.  It has been double digit for several days.

    Looking good for Mitt!

  17. Innocent Smith
    katievs

    ~Paules

    katievs: Wait, what?  Ricochet’s own “America is going down no matter what” pessimist confidently claiming Romney will win big?  · 7 minutes ago

    These are two separate questions, dear. · 7 minutes ago

    Ah.  To me, they don’t seem so.  That is, if Obama wins, I think collapse and violence will result.  Maybe sooner, maybe later.  If Romney wins, though, I have hope that the ship of state can be brought about, and disaster averted.  We’ll have lots of work to do, and it will be touch and go for a decade or two, but it might not be impossible to save the union. · 6 hours ago

    I am willing to engage in this debate after the election.  Especially if Romney wins, I will be happy to discuss how this country is still headed for an iceberg (as in, we hit it decades ago).  If he loses, I will be too depressed and will want some optimism.

  18. DocJay

    I wish I shared your optimism.  My best guess is 310 electoral votes. :)

    wmartin

    dittoheadadt: I find absurd the notion that an electorate that went historically GOP just 2 years ago, in huge part in response to Obambi and the Dems (who haven’t changed one iota since then), would pivot back to them now.  Doesn’t pass the sniff test, at least not to me. · 14 minutes ago

    Yeah, that’s why Bob Dole smashed Clinton in 1996. Oh, wait…. · 7 hours ago

    Oh wait indeed, Clinton went to the middle and passed bi-partisan laws, embracing the change( reluctantly but effectively), ushering in prosperity.

    Obama has been a been a bitter clinger and continued to embrace a radical agenda.   While our country fails.

    Bob Dole, zzzzzzzz.  Romney, economic wizard at a time of great strife.

  19. CoolHand

    Yeah, Paules!  You’re my kind of crazy, sir.

    Personally, I’m already stocking up on the bottles that I will use to capture the tears of all the leftist d-bags who were entirely blindsided by the Romney victory.

    Oh yes, so delicious they will be . . .

  20. Severely Ltd.
    wmartin: Yeah, that’s why Bob Dole smashed Clinton in 1996. Oh, wait…. 

    Oh wait indeed, Clinton went to the middle and passed bi-partisan laws, embracing the change( reluctantly but effectively), ushering in prosperity.

    Obama has been a been a bitter clinger and continued to embrace a radical agenda.   While our country fails.

    Bob Dole, zzzzzzzz.  Romney, economic wizard at a time of great strife.

    Wmartin, I’ll echo the Doc here. Do you imagine that Obama has a fraction of the goodwill that Clinton had built up with his cynical yet very effective triangulation? Obama’s appeal has faded quickly and his policy failures are an anchor thrown to a flailing swimmer. I’m with Rahe and Paules, a sweep.

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