Whither Goes the Senate?

There is much rejoicing and good spirits in the halls of Ricochet and other right-leaning online establishments as the path looks promisingly towards a Romney victory. With that, it does not look encouraging that the Senate will fall into the hands of the GOP. So I ask, do we stand a chance of moving the needle? If not will Romney be able to get anything done knowing Harry Reid’s penchant for just burying any legislation he doesn’t find palatable?

  1. Israel P.

    The symbolism of a win by Scott Brown would be huge. And it would feel oh so good.

  2. Severely Ltd.

    What, no chance for a down-ticket cascade?

  3. Keith Preston

    Again…I’m looking at some surprising captures.  The lack of enthusiasm for Dear Leader will cost the down ticket races.

    I think we will see a 54-46 senate split…with Majority Leader McConnell’s first task to be repealing Obamacare.

  4. Arahant

    I hope we’ll take it fairly strongly, but we’ll see.  Some of the Senate races are in places that might not flip, like here in Michigan.

  5. raycon and lindacon
    Keith Preston: Again…I’m looking at some surprising captures.  The lack of enthusiasm for Dear Leader will cost the down ticket races.

    I think we will see a 54-46 senate split…with Majority Leader McConnell’s first task to be repealing Obamacare. · 7 minutes ago

    From your keyboard to God’s ear.

  6. tabula rasa

    I posted a couple of days ago with my best take on the Senate races. I agree that it’s critical for the Republicans to take the Senate, but I’m not so pessimistic.

    I’m predicting at least a three seat pickup, which is enough with a Romney win–I think it’s more likely the swing will be four (maybe more) seats.

    There are a lot more Democratic seats at risk, and 8-10 are well within the realm of a possible Republican win.  There are really only two Republican seats where there is good possibility of flipping to the Democrats, and I think in one of those–the Massachusetts seat–Scott Brown will pull it out.

    A strong performance at the top of the ticket will help.

  7. Schrodinger

    If Romney has reasonable coattails, I think GOP gets 51 seats.

  8. Fake John Galt

    If the GOP house has strong leadership and a GOP President has the fortitude to use the bully pulpit then not holding the senate can be managed. 

  9. Frozen Chosen

    I admit that I find the polls troubling in many if the senate races.  I worry that Romney will win because Obama has been such a failure but that people will continue to support their incumbent senator.

    If Romney wins, however, the GOP will only need to pick up 3 seats as a 50-50 tie is broken by the VP.  If we win the presidency and can’t pick up 3 seats in the senate it will be somewhat of a hollow victory I fear…

  10. Good Berean

    I think we have a chance of picking up a seat here in Washington. 

  11. Leigh

    If Romney really does pull decidedly ahead, he should use Obamacare to make a direct appeal for the Senate:  “I need Tommy Thompson to come to Washington to help repeal Obamacare” and etc.  Even if it didn’t work, it would help prepare  Republicans to blame the Senate and not Romney for the failure of complete repeal.

    We need as many Republicans as possible for entitlement reform, too.  I think Romney is going to do something with Medicare no matter what — he has to.  I do believe he’ll make it as conservative as he can, but he will also do what he needs to in order to get votes.  The fewer Democratic votes he needs, the better.

  12. dittoheadadt
    Fake John Galt: If the GOP house has strong leadership and a GOP President has the fortitude to use the bully pulpit then not holding the senate can be managed.  · 20 hours ago

    I agree.  Enough Senate Dems will be up in 2014 that taking a principled stand <guffaw!> and helping overturn Obamacare will be in their self-interest.

  13. ConservativeMercenary

    Keith, I just don’t see that happening.  ND looks promising again (apparently it wasn’t just a month ago if I recall correctly).  I think in a few races, like Ohio Senate race, the landslide Romney victory required to pull that off is…improbable. 

    Keith Preston: Again…I’m looking at some surprising captures.  The lack of enthusiasm for Dear Leader will cost the down ticket races.

    I think we will see a 54-46 senate split…with Majority Leader McConnell’s first task to be repealing Obamacare. · 22 hours ago

  14. La Dernière Lettre

    Tom Smith has made up ground here in PA against Bob Casey.

  15. Roy Lofquist

    In 2010 there were 13 Democrat and 12 Republican seats contested. The GOP held all of their seats and picked up 6 from the Ds.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2010

    This year there are 23 D seats and 10 R seats at stake. If 2012 follows 2010, a shaky proposition to be sure, the GOP would pick up 10 or 11.

    Romney is at +7  per Gallup, a historically large gap 3 weeks before the election. My best guess is +8, making it 55-45.

  16. GreenCarder

    Let’s keep in mind that Reagan not only faced a Democrat majority in the house; the Speaker was Tip O’Neill, a bitter partisan who was determined to fight Reagan at every turn if he could. This said, I dearly would love to take the Senate. With the lack of a budget for over 3 years while the nation’s economic ship has drifted towards the rocks, I feel that Harry Reid has been almost as malign an influence on American public life as Obama. Unseating him as majority leader would be huge.

  17. Brian Clendinen

    My 50% probability was 51 seats for Republicans a week ago. This week it looks about 49 seats per latest Rasmussen poll’s.

  18. katievs

    Reading on Breitbart the other day that billionaires–as if alarmed— have suddenly been funneling money into the ME race made me send some shekels to Charles Summers.

  19. katievs

    I really really want to see Murdoch and Mandel pull out victories.

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