Time To Get Real: Obama Is Very Likely To Win

Despite some momentum for Romney, all indications are of a very close popular vote but an Electoral College win by Obama. The idea expounded once again by Paul Rahe on the mothership podcast that Romney will win going away has no basis in fact. Look at the RCP Electoral College map and the RCP average of various states. Granting that many of these states are within the …

  1. ConservativeWanderer

    Gee, if Obama is going to win, I guess I should just stay home on November 6.

  2. At The Rubicon

    So, Cattle King, I’ll bet when you were a child and your momma read ‘Winnie the Pooh’ to you, you identified most closely with Eeyore.

  3. The King Prawn

    I’m not sure the polls are the foundation on which to build an opinion.

  4. Joseph Paquette

    Obama can win OH & PA.  But if Romney wins FL, VA, and NC, and runs most of the west, you’ve got a tie!  

  5. No Caesar

    Umm, your contention is not consistent with this and this and this.   That state-by-state analysis doesn’t seem consistent with Obama’s campaign reportedly giving up on VA and FL, and close to doing so on CO.  That Gallup poll is not an outlier, but a trend.  It may be a peak, but the data suggest not.  I have long contended that individual polls are not helpful, but the trend of polls over time is very helpful.  The October trend is up for Romney and down for Obama.  We are close to hitting critical mass for a Preference Cascade for Romney.  Under a normal election year, this would have been hit earlier, but…

    As to NH, here on the ground in a very Blue corner of the state, the support is 50/50 Romney vs. Obama.  That does not portend well for the Great Mendacitor.   In OH I personally know a number of folks who’d be called old-line blue collar Democrats (voted Gore ’00, Kerry ’04, and even Obama ’08), and they are fighting furiously for Mandel and Romney. 

    An inverse of 2000 would be interesting, though Romney would probably not pull a Gore. 

  6. Matede

    Cattle King, do you live in a conservative area? I ask that because I live in Liberalville in Connecticut and there is very little enthusiasum for Obama here. I see only a very few yard signs and bumber stickers for Obama, even on the lawns that have signs for the democratic senate and house candidates. The bloom is off the rose for Obama and this country is in trouble and even run of the mill liberals know it. I really think that Romney will really pull this one out. I agree with Paul Rahe on this one

  7. Fred Cole

    Thank you.  Threads like this are important.  People get excited and need to be grounded in reality, as unpleasant as it may be.

  8. Mel Foil

    There was a movie about it:

    temp6.jpg

  9. liberal jim

    Last time O got 70m votes to M’s 60.  If O’s vote total falls by 10%, I think it will fall more, that gives him 63M  which means R will only have to increase the GOP total by 5% for a tie.   I don’t know what the poles indicate but I would be surprised if Romney did not win by more than a 66 – 61 margin which should be enough to give him the necessary electoral votes.

  10. Michael Cham

    Cattle King. Good job in getting me to read your post!

    As JD from Heathers would say: The extreme always seems to make an impression.

    At first I was alarmed but I think you are wrong. My challenge to you. Would you be willing to place a friendly bet that Romney will lose? I don’t do this to make some sort of testosterone filled challenge. I’m guessing that you don’t want to be dissappointed and are just preparing for the worst. If you had to place money on what will likely happen, as opposed to emotionally prepare yourself for what might happen, you might just realize that as of this moment, Romney is winning!

  11. Matede
    Michael Cham: As JD from Heathers would say: The extreme always seems to make an impression.

    I love a good Heathers Quote.

  12. Valiuth

    NOOOO!! Pessimism. I was just beginning to develop some Optimism, and now you dangle before me the soft warm glow of disappointment…I hope you’re happy. Now I’m back to feeling insecure and nervous about the whole election….Where is Professor Rahe to tell me everything will all be well? 

  13. Gary The Ex-Donk

    RCP average just moved NC (15 EV) to Leans Romney.  Now he leads in the count over Obama – 206 to 201.  States like MN, OR and NJ or only Leans Obama.

    Forgive me for my irrational exuberance but I see a trend here.

  14. Created Or Saved

    This is like that part in Airplane 2 when Shatner shuts down the base halfway through the movie saying “That’s it they’re toast”

    I mean I myself am an unapologetic “Eeyore” and half-empty glass connoisseur but really man, get a grip.  It’s called a trend, and believe me the Obama campaign is sweating bullets right now.  I’m not saying everything’s all roses and lollipops, there are definitely some potential pits Romney can fall into,  for instance I’m very concerned about the upcoming debate and after that whatever the Obama team is planning on throwing at the wall in the last week.  And would I rather the news was better out of Ohio?  Of course.  But before you stick your head in the oven you need to take a look at this that I grabbed off of the sidebar at Ace of Spades:

    @NumbersMuncher: Some key numbers from recent Ohio polls.

  15. jetstream
    Fred Cole: Thank you.  Threads like this are important.  People get excited and need to be grounded in reality, as unpleasant as it may be. · 2 hours ago

    Fred, are you trending Romney?  :-)

  16. Johnny Dubya

    So, you don’t think Blue Yeti should start printing up “Rahe Was Right” Ricochet t-shirts?

    I have two words for you: “Bradley Effect”.  If you’re not familiar with it, Google it.

  17. Vice-Potentate

    I have to say I somewhat agree with the pessimism. I think Obama has Pennsylvania and Michigan in his column. Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire, should be close. However, we may have to deal with the fact that Obama could have bought Ohio with his GM spin and Nevada with the Dream act. Not impossible for Romney, but I wouldn’t say he is the likely winner just yet.

  18. HoosierDaddy
    liberal jim: Last time O got 70m votes to M’s 60.  If O’s vote total falls by 10%, I think it will fall more, that gives him 63M  which means R will only have to increase the GOP total by 5% for a tie.   I don’t know what the poles indicate but I would be surprised if Romney did not win by more than a 66 – 61 margin which should be enough to give him the necessary electoral votes. · 15 hours ago

    There is no rigorous connection between the  national popular vote and the electoral college, since states are winner-take-all. The common sense of your last sentence breaks down due to the stubborness of Ohio to get with the program. This election could turn out to be historic —-Romney might win many more votes nationally and still lose. The country has been lucky that this has not happened so far, because the Electoral College is a very good idea.

  19. Augustine
    Michael Cham: Cattle King. Good job in getting me to read your post!

    As JD from Heathers would say: The extreme always seems to make an impression.

    At first I was alarmed but I think you are wrong. My challenge to you. Would you be willing to place a friendly bet that Romney will lose? I don’t do this to make some sort of testosterone filled challenge. I’m guessing that you don’t want to be dissappointed and are just preparing for the worst. If you had to place money on what will likely happen, as opposed to emotionally prepare yourself for what might happen, you might just realize that as of this moment, Romney is winning! · 4 hours ago

    Edited 4 hours ago

    I’ll take the friendly wager.  If I lose I will grovel before all the Richochetti and you…I am not sure what, but I want it to include you buying me expensive stuff I want while I pay you nothing. 

  20. HoosierDaddy
    Fredösphere: The problem with your analysis is that poll averaging, as in RCP, is a lagging indicator. Many of the President’s best polls in RCP are a week old. If there’s a definite trend, as there has been, RCP (and Nate Silver, etc. etc.) will all be behind the curve. Romney is likely holding a clear lead in the national polls, too big for the EC to counter. If–if!–Ohio is some kind of stubborn outlier this year, then Romney’s lead will pop out in some other surprising place (such as Wisconsin). · 5 hours ago

    No national popular vote is too big for the EC. It is a mistake to believe that previous outcomes predict this case. There is no Law of Averages. ‘There is always a first time’ is the nightmare scenario that this Conversation is up against.

    Romney 53%, Obama 47%  —-Obama still wins through narrow victories in key swing states. 

    The central truth of CK’s post is that such a thing CAN happen, and due to Ohio’s nonconformity is very likely.

Want to comment on stories like these? Become a member today!

You'll have access to:

  • All Ricochet articles, posts and podcasts.
  • The conversation amongst our members.
  • The opportunity share your Ricochet experiences.

Join Today!

Already a Member? Sign In