Romney … With 270. But Only if Scott Reusser Was Right

Although at this hour InTrade continues to insist that President Obama is more than twice as likely as Gov. Romney to win tomorrow, I say–and I bring to bear on this pronouncement 30 years of close attention to American politics–nuts.

Not that I’m with Brother Rahe. Much as I’d like to suppose Romney will win in a landslide, I can find no evidence anywhere for a Romney victory of more than two points–and even that would strike me as surprisingly large.  

Still.  I feel certain Romney will win in Florida and North Carolina, reasonably confident that he’ll win in Virginia and–this one’ll be tight–New Hampshire. That leaves one prize, the great prize, Ohio. In the matter of the Buckeye state I repose my confidence in the analysis of our own Scott Reusser, surely one of the stoutest patriots, and finest prose stylists, that Ohio has ever produced.  On our podcast last week, as you may recall, Scott offered a trenchant and memorable prediction.  Ohio may not have warmed to Mitt Romney, but, after enduring four years of Barack Obama, voters in the Buckeye state will step into voting booths tomorrow to experience a primal emotion:  disgust.

“In the end,” Scott said, “Ohio will vomit Obama out.”

Romney will win–with exactly 270 electoral votes.

  1. James Of England
    Michael Hornback: I think your assessment is dead on. Though I think it is more likely that Romney wins Colorado than New Hampshire. So, I’ll take both of them. :) · 1 hour ago

    I think I agree with this, although this agreement is tempered by Mitt visiting Manchester again, and not spending more time in Colorado. And with “more likely” being as non-falsifiable as it is…. I’m going to stop here.

  2. Al Kennedy

    Peter, although I appreciate you finally announcing for Romney with 270 electoral votes I think you are underestimating Romney’s margin.  I have Romney at 295, and while I will be extremely disappointed if the American people don’t reject President Obama and end this national nightmare; you are correct that there are conflicting data points that don’t indicate whether this will happen or not.  After several decades of involvement in politics, I am convinced that politics is more of an art than a science. In difficult times, Americans have always chosen a positive view of the future.  Romney has one, Obama doesn’t.  The enthusiasm we are seeing at the Romney rallies in the last couple of weeks and Romney’s wide margin among independents give me confidence that the discrepancy between the national polls and the state polls will be resolved Tuesday decisively in Romney’s favor.  Professor Rahe will be more correct than people imagine.

  3. Katie Robinette

    I have the same count.  270.  Rove has 285!

  4. Leigh

    I’m making no electoral college count prediction.  But here’s my final call: tomorrow night will end in sleeplessness, with both Ohio and Pennsylvania too close to call, rampant allegations of voter fraud, and the White House hinging on Romney’s victory in at least one of the two.

    Unless Romney pulls off the Wisconsin path to victory — which is just possible.

    The polls, and the queer sinking feeling I’ve had since the debt ceiling fight, point to an Obama win. 

    Every other instinct, and 2010, and Paul Ryan, and justice (poetic and otherwise), and enthusiasm, and American history, all indicate that Romney should win.

    I don’t know which to believe.

  5. Scott R

    Good morning, everyone. We’re awake and voting in the Buckeye state. Good luck to all.

    That prediction of mine was our little secret, Peter, since it didn’t make the cut on the podcast, but thanks for getting it on the record.

     It’s gonna happen. Got to.

  6. liberal jim

    If on election day or the day after romney’s total is only 270 the election will be up in the air for several weeks and Obama will eventually steal it.

  7. Arkansas Dan

    My prediction for today: Obama leads early…until republicans get off work. Then we bury him.

  8. The Mugwump

    One of the collateral victories in this election will be the complete destruction of the MSM and its allied polling organizations.  Even Democrats will realize how badly they’ve been played.  Such a victory will be as important to healthy republic as the actual electoral victory.  

  9. Viator

    Are we in for a Baghdad Bob/Al-Jazeera moment as  conventional wisdom’s cognitive dissonance adjusts to new reality?  Should  we be ready for the most bizarre behavior from some quarters?

    I think there is a lot of evidence leading to the conclusion that a +300R may occur. See Paul Rahe’s post on the huge Rasmussen partisan identification poll which has a history of accuracy, as does the Rasmussen organization itself.  That is a thirteen point partisan swing folks towards the GOP. Unprecedented and not reflected in most polls which most times are D+.

    The Obama campaign people do not look like happy campers.

    Some predictions:

    Michael Barone R315-D223

    George Will R321-D217

    Bryan Preston R315-D223

    Karl Rove R285-D253

    Quin Hillyer R284-D254

    James Pethokoukis R301-D227.

    Dick Morris R325-D213

    Dean Chambers, UnskewedPolls.com R311-D227

    Of course there are many contrary predictions including  Nate Silver.  I have not found one Obama true believer who thinks he will lose, most predict an Obama landslide not unlike Baghdad Bob’s reporting. None reference that thirteen point partisan swing.

  10. Kevin Lucey

    Peter, I hope that is your “Price is Right” guess to avoid being over even if you suspect it might be higher! My “Price is Right” call is 295.

  11. The Mugwump

    Peter, if I ever get the chance to face you across a poker table, I will clean you out.

  12. Goldgeller

    I think Nate Silver placing a $2k bet that Obama would win says that he has some level of confidence in his prediction. I think that Romney will win– and win big– but I wouldn’t put money on it! I just think the polls are skewed heavily “D” and that the polls are fooling people. Given that Romney is a point up or down on Obama (presuming an unreasonably high D turnout) I think Romney has this in the bag. But we’ll see! I’m in FL. I already voted. I heard the lines were extremely long last nite in SoFla. Were Ds in those lines in record numbers? Possibly. They vote early more than Rs. We will find out today. My heart is beating a bit quickly. But I think Romney will win. Could Obama win? Smarter people than me are saying it’s possible– I just think they’re projecting. 

  13. True_wesT

    Romney wins WI, but loses PA and OH. It all seems lost. But then, as the returns start to come in from the West coast, Oregon seems unexpectedly close. The night drags on, and it just gets closer and closer. Then, in win that no one expected, Romney takes Oregon…Romney 273, Obama 265…Hey! It could happen.

  14. dittoheadadt
    Scott [roy-sir]: Good morning, everyone. We’re awake and voting in the Buckeye state. Good luck to all.

    That prediction of mine was our little secret, Peter, since it didn’t make the cut on the podcast, but thanks for getting it on the record.

     It’s gonna happen. Got to. · 2 hours ago

    Wait!! You mean the podcasts are edited??  They’re not one uninterrupted stream of consciousness? (or lack thereof?)

  15. Leslie Watkins

    Intrade predicted that SCOTUS would overturn the individual mandate. Not so impressed am I.

  16. Peter Robinson
    C
    James Of England

    Michael Hornback: I think your assessment is dead on. Though I think it is more likely that Romney wins Colorado than New Hampshire. So, I’ll take both of them. :) · 1 hour ago

    I think I agree with this, although this agreement is tempered by Mitt visiting Manchester again, and not spending more time in Colorado. And with “more likely” being as non-falsifiable as it is…. I’m going to stop here. · 7 hours ago

    Mitt’s visits to Manchester got my attention, too, James.  I couple it with the assessment of a friend in New Hampshire who expects the GOP candidate for governor to win, if narrowly.  Hard to imagine New Hampshire would support the Republican for governor but the Democrat for president.

    But we shall see.

    Scott [roy-sir]: Good morning, everyone. We’re awake and voting in the Buckeye state. Good luck to all.

    That prediction of mine was our little secret, Peter, since it didn’t make the cut on the podcast, but thanks for getting it on the record.

     It’s gonna happen. Got to. · 3 hours ago

  17. Peter Robinson
    C
    ~Paules: Peter, if I ever get the chance to face you across a poker table, I will clean you out. · 1 hour ago

    Playing you, Paules, I’d keep it to a penny ante.

  18. Peter Robinson
    C
    Scott [roy-sir]: Good morning, everyone. We’re awake and voting in the Buckeye state. Good luck to all.

    That prediction of mine was our little secret, Peter, since it didn’t make the cut on the podcast, but thanks for getting it on the record.

     It’s gonna happen. Got to. · 4 hours ago

    You’re kiddin’.  Blue Yeti cut your best line?  In that case I’m doubly happy to have repeated it.

    May the Buckeye State have the emetic day you predicted!

  19. Mr. Dart
    Richard: 

    Look how much the “experts” on Intrade vacillated during the Republican primaries before the Iowa caucus. I could have told you that Gingrich, Cain, and Bachmann did not have the campaign infrastructure to sustain any momentum that they temporarily gained. They were not serious candidates, an expert would have told you that.  And look how many people were betting on Ron Paul, his chances were always 0%, yet people were willing to “invest in his stock”, I’m guessing it was because they were Ron Paul fans.  · 8 hours ago

    Edited 8 hours ago

    As far as I can recall, and I look at Intrade daily, the only time that Mitt Romney wasn’t the favorite in Republican Primary trading was when Rick Perry announced his entry.  During the debate when Gov. Perry described those opposed to illegal imigration as having no heart his futures dropped and Mitt was back on top.  I don’t recall ever seeing Cain, Bachmann, or Paul anywhere near the top of the field on Intrade. Ron Paul was always in the 5% -6% range.  But your memory may be better on this.

  20. Mr. Dart
    Richard: I don’t think the vast majority of people who gamble on Intrade, and it is gambling, have any special information that we don’t have and maybe less (I’m sure there are a lot of people from other countries taking a try at it). If Obama loses there are going to be a lot of broke people angry at Nate Silver. 

    Edited 8 hours ago

    I hope you’re right, btw.  I have a heavy short position on Obama and didn’t cover it when it tightened before Sandy.  The Intrade print just before polls opened this AM was Obama 303/ Romney 235.

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