Report from Russia

An acquaintance of mine recently returned from Russia with a report that indicates only 7 million Russian women are capable of bearing children.  While the number of women in their child bearing years is significantly higher than this, many have been rendered sterile due to repeated abortions.  Russia has begun a demographic death spiral from which recovery is not possible.

Meanwhile, birth rates are exploding among the Turkish peoples of Central Asia.  Young men from this region have been …

  1. Israel P.
    ~Paules:

    Dasvedanya, Russia.  It was nice knowing you. · · 2 minutes ago

    “Nice?” Speak for yourself.

  2. Fred Cole

    There’s a school of historical thought that says that the Roman Empire didn’t really collapse in the 5th century, it just gradually became something else.

    And that something else wasn’t better or worse, necessarily, it was just something else.  It’s just that the guy at the top of the structure after 476 wasn’t calling himself the emperor, just King of Italy.

    That something else had a lot to do with a failed system and migration and changes in demographics.  

    It could be that we’re seeing something similar in Russia.  The Czar was replaced by the Soviet Union, which was very similar but in different clothing.  But the Soviet Union collapsed 20 plus years ago.  Maybe Putin is Odoacer.  Just a transitional figure.

    “Russia” and “Russians” become less of a thing and they’re gradually replaced by central Asian Turkic people in the center and Chinese in the east. 

    We might know in another 20 years and have an grasp in 50.  Maybe Russia will become Rossiya and this is just the beginning of it.

    Interesting.

  3. Devereaux

    There are interesting issues noted with things like birth rates. The risk is in extrapolating futures based on present. We know things like stock picking doesn’t work, and this may be yet another similar situation – “past performance does not predict future performance”.

  4. Eeyore
    Devereaux:

    “past performance does not predict future performance”.

    I don’t have the links, but in Mark Steyn’s America Alone, he quoted UN statistics on birth rates and historical precedent which has indicated that no society in the history of the world has ever recovered from a fertility rate of (if memory serves) 1.6 children per woman. Replacement rate is 2.1. Russia is at 1.61.

    So I guess it could be different now – kind of like statists who currently say “sure, socialism has never worked like it is supposed to. They were doing it wrong. We have better [fill in the blank], so we’ll do it right…”

  5. John Murdoch

    People make rational economic decisions for rational economic reasons. One of those economic decisions is to assume risk–or to avoid it. And the single biggest risk faced by an adolescent girl–or a young woman–is motherhood.

    Motherhood in a culture that encourages, supports–and enforces–marriage vows is a much, much safer risk than motherhood in a world where men can’t be tied down, and there are few consequences to abandoning your wife and children. We see American cities filled with single mothers in desperate poverty–but our marriage rate is dramatically higher than the rate in Europe.

    Very few people study actuarial science–but we’re all pretty good at pricing risk. When bearing children becomes, de facto, a high-stakes bet on the moral character of your, um, “partner,” a lot of women will–reasonably–conclude that they don’t like the odds, and can’t afford the risk. So they’ll avoid motherhood–through birth control, abortion, or simply not dating.

    The result for the nation, the language, or what’s left of the culture is horrible. But each woman, acting in her own interest, is probably making the right choice.

  6. Foxman
    ~Paules: An acquaintance of mine recently returned from Russia with a report that indicates only 7 million Russian women are capable of bearing children.  in Mandarin.  It’s said that Russian officials are fully aware of the situation, but understand that they are powerless to stop it.  

     · · 3 hours ago

    I think this highly unlikely

  7. The Mugwump
    Foxman

    ~Paules: An acquaintance of mine recently returned from Russia with a report that indicates only 7 million Russian women are capable of bearing children.  in Mandarin.  It’s said that Russian officials are fully aware of the situation, but understand that they are powerless to stop it.  

     · · 3 hours ago

    I think this highly unlikely · 7 minutes ago

    The information came directly from a member of the Russian Duma.

  8. Fred Cole
    Foxman

    ~Paules: An acquaintance of mine recently returned from Russia with a report that indicates only 7 million Russian women are capable of bearing children.  in Mandarin.  It’s said that Russian officials are fully aware of the situation, but understand that they are powerless to stop it.  

     · · 3 hours ago

    I think this highly unlikely · 0 minutes ago

    Population of Russia is 142 million.  About half are women 71 million.

    Their population pyramid is weird owing to loses in WW2.

    I haven’t done the math, but I don’t think its impossible that only 10% of the population is of childbearing age.  

    I don’t know how much repeated abortion has damaged that.  It’s possible, but it could also be dubious.  I don’t know the stats on it.

  9. Foxman
    ~Paules

    Foxman

    ~Paules: An acquaintance of mine recently returned from Russia with a report that indicates only 7 million Russian women are capable of bearing children.  in Mandarin.  It’s said that Russian officials are fully aware of the situation, but understand that they are powerless to stop it.  

     · · 3 hours ago

    I think this highly unlikely · 7 minutes ago

    The information came directly from a member of the Russian Duma. · 1 hour ago

    who never lie

  10. John Murdoch
    Foxman

    ~Paules

    Foxman

    ~Paules: An acquaintance of mine recently returned from Russia with a report that indicates only 7 million Russian women are capable of bearing children.  in Mandarin.  It’s said that Russian officials are fully aware of the situation, but understand that they are powerless to stop it.  

     · · 3 hours ago

    I think this highly unlikely · 7 minutes ago

    The information came directly from a member of the Russian Duma.

    who never lie

    Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee is walking, talking (alas) proof that politicians don’t have to be consciously lying in order to say things that aren’t necessarily true.

  11. Guy Incognito

    I recall a report in the 80′s that said that the average Russia woman had 6 abortions (it was a reference to the report being given to Reagan, who naturally found it alarming).  Fred Cole, I posit that 6 is probably close to the answer to your question.

    This recent story seems a logical conclusion.

    I must support Devereaux on his point about nothing being certain, since you can never count out future technologies’ abilities to save Man from his own stupidity (usually caused by other technology).  That said, if the 7 million figure is correct, that is a huge problem.  And while Russians may exist as a people, their control over the area seems almost certain to come to an end; simply too few versus too many.

  12. John Murdoch

    The problem isn’t just Russia–if you haven’t done so already, take a look at the Wikipedia page Eeyore posted, showing each country and it’s fertility rate (births/woman).

    • US: 2.06

    • UK: 1.91
    • Russia: 1.61
    • Canada: 1.59
    • Spain: 1.48
    • Croatia: 1.44
    • Austria: 1.41
    • Hungary: 1.41
    • Germany: 1.41
    • Italy: 1.40
    • Greece: 1.39
    • Japan: 1.39
    • Poland: 1.31
    • Ukraine: 1.29
    • Lithuania: 1.27
    • Czech Republic: 1.27

    The, ahem, furiously fecund French pace the field with a rate of 2.08. But apart from those smooth-talking cheese-eaters, the demographic outlook for Europe is–stunning.

  13. Devereaux
    John Murdoch: The problem isn’t just Russia–if you haven’t done so already, take a look at the Wikipedia page Eeyore posted, showing each country and it’s fertility rate (births/woman).

    • US: 2.06

    • UK: 1.91
    • Russia: 1.61
    • Canada: 1.59
    • Spain: 1.48
    • Croatia: 1.44
    • Austria: 1.41
    • Hungary: 1.41
    • Germany: 1.41
    • Italy: 1.40
    • Greece: 1.39
    • Japan: 1.39
    • Poland: 1.31
    • Ukraine: 1.29
    • Lithuania: 1.27
    • Czech Republic: 1.27

    The, ahem, furiously fecund French pace the field with a rate of 2.08. But apart from those smooth-talking cheese-eaters, the demographic outlook for Europe is–stunning. · 29 minutes ago

    I believe ours is actually lower than that posted. France may be the result of the muslim population.

    Assuming nothing changes, those numbers are certainly on track to death of a society. And the arabs aren’t far behind.

  14. Eeyore
    Devereaux  France may be the result of the muslim population.

    I read an article to that effect some time ago. Muslim immigrant rates were quite high, whereas the native Gauls were on the very low side of the rest of Europe.

  15. Devereaux

    One other small fact. Russia is far more homogeneous than we are. So we have an overall BR of about 2. But NY Jews have only 1.0, while the evangelical midcountry is something like 3.6.

  16. Devereaux
    Eeyore

    Devereaux:

    “past performance does not predict future performance”.

    I don’t have the links, but in Mark Steyn’s America Alone, he quoted UN statistics on birth rates and historical precedent which has indicated that no societyin the history of the worldhas ever recovered from a fertility rate of (if memory serves) 1.6 children per woman. Replacement rate is 2.1. Russia is at 1.61.

    So I guess it could be different now – kind of like statists who currently say “sure, socialism has never worked like it is supposed to. They were doing it wrong. We have better [fill in the blank], so we’lldo it right…” · 2 hours ago

    I’m not sure the analogy is right. You speak to a system that doesn’t work, whereas birth rate is the result of a number of factors, not the least of which is the system that isn’t working.

    I think we can safely say that statism doesn’t work. I would go as far as saying that LBR might presage the demise of a society, but lots can change in 20 years. Look at us. We went from Reagan to Obummer.

  17. Israel P.
    John Murdoch: The, ahem, furiously fecund French pace the field with a rate of 2.08. But apart from those smooth-talking cheese-eaters, the demographic outlook for Europe is–stunning. · February 15, 2013 at 1:13pm

    Not the French. The people who live in France.

  18. dash
    John Murdoch: 

    The, ahem, furiously fecund French pace the field with a rate of 2.08. But apart from those smooth-talking cheese-eaters, the demographic outlook for Europe is–stunning. · February 15, 2013 at 1:13pm

    The French gov’t began doling out incentives to child-bearing couples  about 2 decades ago, which were designed to bring up the national birth rate. For instance, at the birth of our two daughters, my wife was allowed to stay in the hospital an extra week to recuperate (there were empty beds at the time) and the cost on the way out? The phone bill. 

    Then followed 18 years of monthly checks from the Allocation Familiale, free creche and schooling, plus the income tax breaks. For every family that has one child, I know several that have 2 or more. A good friend of mine has two boys and her husband three others from an earlier marriage. A girl I know, in her 20′s has 11 brothers and sisters (Catholic, but still!)

    So it’s not just the Muslim population, although they tend to have quite a few themselves…

  19. Fricosis Guy

    @dash: Yes, I had several French colleagues who availed themselves.  Also, it is no coincidence that France saw quite a strong pushback against gay marriage from families with kids.

    dash

    John Murdoch: 

    The, ahem, furiously fecund French pace the field with a rate of 2.08. But apart from those smooth-talking cheese-eaters, the demographic outlook for Europe is–stunning. · February 15, 2013 at 1:13pm

    The French gov’t began doling out incentives to child-bearing couples about 2 decades ago, which were designed to bring up the national birth rate.

  20. Indaba

    John Murdoch your comments on risk absolutely summarize the female view. With leaders like Putin. Mr. Bunga Bunga in Italy, Jacob Zuma with 6 wives (at least he marries them but 1 commited suicide), these role models tell women forget about having a loving husband to help raise children. The vodka, Jack the Lad culture will stop women from having children.

Want to comment on stories like these? Become a member today!

You'll have access to:

  • All Ricochet articles, posts and podcasts.
  • The conversation amongst our members.
  • The opportunity share your Ricochet experiences.

Join Today!

Already a Member? Sign In