Pew: Romney Rides a 12-Point Swing

The Pew Research Center is out with a new post-debate poll.

The results are dramatically different than their poll in September. Then, Obama was up 51-43 with likely voters. Now Romney is up 49-45 with the same cohort.

And in September, Obama had an 18-point lead over Romney when it came to female voters. Now, they’re tied.

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  1. Wordcooper

    But that is unpossible! Debates don’t change anything. The internet doesn’t lie.

  2. Frozen Chosen

    Pollsters are beginning to get real as they realize that the SS Obama is taking on water fast and they don’t want to look like homers for a lost cause.

  3. Pseudodionysius

    Anecdotally, they phoned one fellow named Matthews and he just kept repeating “Rosebud” into the phone.

    Kids.

  4. Evan Pokroy

    As I posted over on the Member feed, look at the sample on this poll. Equal Ds and Rs. Is it a wonder Romney is actually leading when a poll isn’t skewed D +7?

  5. MBF
    Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:

    But if you’d like to review some of the Romney obituaries that ran in the media in the last month, no one will begrudge you.

    My wife and I watched the last two SNL episodes on DVR last night. Aside from the tissue-soft kid glove treatment they gave Obama in the debate sketch, I was struck by the Weekend Update from 9/29 in which Seth Myers repeated almost every delusional leftist meme regarding the perceived implosion of the Romney campaign. He appeared to actually believe that Romney was going to end up like McCain in 2008.

  6. KC Mulville

    What does this tell me?

    Polls are fickle things.

  7. ParisParamus

    I just want to say that this is when/how dubious pollsters–most of them–launder their worthless polling–I call it The FLIP.  Romney was never down that much (or at all), and he isn’t that much up now.  And no one can prove I’m correct/that they were wrong…

  8. Diane Ellis
    C

    Mittmentum!

  9. Frozen Chosen
    Evan Pokroy: As I posted over on the Member feed, look at the sample on this poll. Equal Ds and Rs. Is it a wonder Romney is actually leading when a poll isn’t skewed D +7? · 8 minutes ago

    That’s what I mean by “gettin’ real”, Evan.  These guys can stop skewing the polls anytime they want and it appears they finally stopped doing it.

  10. tabula rasa

    I stole this idea from someone else (I think it was Rob on the last podcast):  Obama’s defeat and Romney’s emergence has, in effect, given people permission to vote against Obama; and now, like Andy McCarthy, they can vote for Romney.

  11. das_motorhead

    Also interesting is the fact that Romney’s standing in the RCP average is now higher than at any other time (47.4%). Obama is just off His (sorry, ‘his’) peak of ~49%.  The numbers seem to suggest that Romney is indeed attracting new (i.e. previously undecided) voters, while Obama has plateaued. Good news, if true, especially since we’re into the final month where voters finally lock in.

  12. das_motorhead

    Frozen with the alternate (though not mutually exclusive) explanation for the numbers I just referenced.

    Frozen Chosen

    Evan Pokroy: As I posted over on the Member feed, look at the sample on this poll. Equal Ds and Rs. Is it a wonder Romney is actually leading when a poll isn’t skewed D +7? · 8 minutes ago

    That’s what I mean by “gettin’ real”, Evan.  These guys can stop skewing the polls anytime they want and it appears they are finally doing it. · 0 minutes ago

  13. Mollie Hemingway
    C

    Actually, I think they may have oversampled Republicans for this poll. If you were skeptical of previous polls, you should be just as skeptical now — until you find out the actual D/R split, etc.

    I’m not saying this poll is meaningless, just that it’s always worth retaining skepticism.

  14. Diane Ellis
    C
    Mark Belling Fan

    Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:

    But if you’d like to review some of the Romney obituaries that ran in the media in the last month, no one will begrudge you.

    My wife and I watched the last two SNL episodes on DVR last night. Aside from the tissue-soft kid glove treatment they gave Obama in the debate sketch, I was struck by the Weekend Update from 9/29 in which Seth Myers repeated almost every delusional leftist meme regarding the perceived implosion of the Romney campaign. He appeared to actually believe that Romney was going to end up like McCain in 2008. · 3 minutes ago

    I only saw this sketch mocking MSNBC/Al Sharpton/Chris Matthews. A little weak, but unexpected nonetheless.

  15. Essgee

    So much for the pollsters trying to cover the tsunami that is on its way. 

    Too many Obama voters suffereing from PTDP…Post Traumatic Debate Performance.

  16. Casey
    Wordcooper: But that is unpossible! Debates don’t change anything. The internet doesn’t lie. · 26 minutes ago

    Debates don’t change anything.  Real people haven’t moved.  Sample people have moved… in ways convenient to storytelling and ad selling.

  17. David Williamson

    So is Mr Long manic or depressive at the moment?

  18. Eeyore

    Obama will not be asleep next week. His simply waking up will swing the polls a couple points the other way.

    It’s quite the tragedy that likely the very future of the American Experiment seems in the hands of some of the nation’s most fickle and lowest-information voters.

    Too cynical?

  19. Valiuth

    Don’t let him breath, Mitt! Work the body. Does any one know if Mitt has unleashed the add deludge? I live in IL and do not watch much TV on cable. Cause now is the time to turn up the pressure.

  20. ctruppi

    This week (Ryan v Biden) then next week (the next RvO debate) will be the key.  Last week was the sales pitch, these will close the deal if effective.  Obama will basically call Romney a liar for the $5 trillion tax cut stuff.  If Romney can confidently and effectively neuter these arguments, he wins the election.  PERIOD!

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