Pessimists in Panic! We May Actually Win this Thing!

Here’s what I wrote in my Time column this week, which won’t be news to my friends on Ricochet:

Seventy-two hours after the first presidential debate, in which it’s universally recognized that Mitt Romney cleaned Barack Obama’s clock, I started to panic. The polls began to tighten, battleground states started to seem a lot less battlegroundish, and Republicans allowed themselves to think th…

  1. Schrodinger

    Some good points from Jay Cost:

    Both political science and the political polls too often imply a scientific precision that I no longer think actually exists in American politics. I have slowly learned that politics is a lot more art than science than I once believed.

    Accordingly, what follows is a prediction based on my interpretation of the lay of the land. I know others see it differently–and they could very well be right, and I could be wrong.

    I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday.

    For two reasons:

    (1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again.

    (2) Romney leads among independents.

    http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-why-i-think-romney-will-win_660041.html?page=1

  2. TucsonSean

    Rob Long’s pessimism leaves, just as mine — thanks to Rasmussen — re-appears.  I must say, I am quite nervous.  Had Romney held a 2 point lead or more in Rasmussen, I would feel good.  A tie, I do not feel good.

  3. Britanicus

    Rob, I love you and all, but you would have to pay for my annual Ricochet membership for me to delve into the comment section on the Time’s website.

    Great article though.

  4. wmartin

    Rob, your psychological makeup seems very close to mine, though I am a bit more dour.

  5. Illiniguy

    Rob: “For the record: I’m a lot more bullish right now, as of Friday morning.”

    4 more days, Rob, plenty of time to paint the furniture black, then white, then black again, then white…..

  6. Arahant
    Rob Long:   …if you do read the column, please scroll through the comments, as I did last night.  And I say this with the utmost respect for the readers ofTime, but there’s a giant, um,quality gap between their conversations and ours.  Made me feel proud of what we’ve got here.

    One gets what one pays for, Rob.  Paying money for the privilege of commenting self-screens a lot of trolls out of the mix.  Having a CoC that can take out those who pay, but still cannot be civil in polite company is another screening factor.  Ricochet is one of the best investments I have ever made.

  7. Louie Mungaray (Squishy Blue RINO)

    Lots of sticky caps lock keys, generous use of the word idiot. Yikes.

  8. Rob Long
    C
    Britanicus: Rob, I love you and all, but you would have to pay for my annual Ricochet membership for me to delve into the comment section on the Time’s website.

    Great article though. · 9 minutes ago

    Hah!  I understand perfectly!  You’ve just described the Ricochet business model!

    But, honestly, I never go into the comments section of a website.  And not only because they’re swampy messes, like at HuffPo, but because the commenters there aren’t interested in creating an interesting conversation.  That’s why I’m so proud and pleased to be part of Ricochet — even when we’re disagreeing, we’re still trying to create something together, not just spout off.

  9. Rob Long
    C
    TucsonSean: Rob Long’s pessimism leaves, just as mine — thanks to Rasmussen — re-appears.  I must say, I am quite nervous.  Had Romney held a 2 point lead or more in Rasmussen, I would feel good.  A tie, I do not feel good. · 13 minutes ago

    No!  Don’t say that to me!  I’ve just carefully arranged my psyche to make it to Tuesday and now here you are, shaking the house of cards!

  10. Rob Long
    C
    Squishy Blue RINO: Lots of sticky caps lock keys, generous use of the word idiot. Yikes. · 1 minute ago

    YES!!!!!  I NOTICED THAT TOO!!!!  

  11. Rob Long
    C
    Arahant

    Rob Long:   …if you do read the column, please scroll through the comments, as I did last night.  And I say this with the utmost respect for the readers ofTime, but there’s a giant, um,quality gap between their conversations and ours.  Made me feel proud of what we’ve got here.

    One gets what one pays for, Rob.  Paying money for the privilege of commenting self-screens a lot of trolls out of the mix.  Having a CoC that can take out those who pay, but still cannot be civil in polite company is another screening factor.  Ricochet is one of the best investments I have ever made. · 7 minutes ago

    Many thanks for saying that.  It’s a huge group effort over here, and I know that the editors and everyone will be grateful to hear that.

  12. Casey

    No panic here.  I am 100% confident Tuesday will be one of the worst days of next week.

  13. Jimmy Carter

    Scary thought: Imagine a Time’s Member Feed.

  14. James Of England
    Nevada seems likely to be the tipping point state. The early voting figures, assuming Ds vote O, Rs vote R, and independents vote 60/40 R/O, mean we need to win by roughly 7% on election day. Given Johnson’s strength in Nevada, we may need an 8% lead on the day.

    That’s very close to what we’d expect (in 2008, we won on the day, but not by that margin; polls are better for us this time).

    Crude extrapolations put us at a tie, the sort of result that could easily be shifted by a few hundred votes. A single caller working through the weekend could easily turn out a hundred votes with a few thousand calls. A single family could easily turn the result in Nevada.

    If we win Nevada and Colorado, and avoid an Obama upset in a red state we don’t need Ohio; any state other than New Hampshire would do it.

    Tonight, and this weekend, you hold the future of your country, your church, and your family in your hands.

    If you choose to spend it playing golf, you increase the chances of getting a President who shares those values.

  15. James Of England

    It’s cross posted from the “win this thing” thread, but it seems worth reminding folks that neither excessive pessimism nor excessive optimism are warranted. There are a bunch of states too close to call, close enough to change with personal action, and significant portions of the rest of our lives may depend on the outcomes in those states.

  16. Pseudodionysius

    President Golfalot can pry my optimism from my cold, dead hands.

  17. raycon and lindacon

    Up from pessimism to shameless promotion of Ricochet.

    Great move, Rob.

  18. The Mugwump

    Rob, the big difference between Ricochet and the lefty blogs is that we have logic on our side.  I’ll grant you that we can sometimes be wrong, but errors are more likely caused by faulty data than a lapse in reasoning.  What passes for liberal logic is quite beyond me.  If the polls show a virtual tie, why would you put down good money on Obama at 1:2 (the current Intrade line)?  You’re betting $2 dollars to win $1.  Why would you accept 1:4 odds on Wisconsin with the polls deadlocked?  Logic would dictate you put your emotions aside and take the better bet, no?  Even fools get lucky – but not consistently.        

  19. Jerry Carroll

    I’m going on the poll wagon for the duration.  No more imbibing leaning states or those in play for me. This learned account of what’s gone wrong is what did it.  Nobody seems to know anything or what they know is wrong, except for the people who are getting it right. Their identifies won’t be known until Wednesday.                  http://kristensoltis.com/post/34833583238/unsolved-mysteries

  20. John Davey

    I honestly wonder if the roiling turmoil of presidential electionary angst is shortening any of our lives…

    I desperately need a Romney landslide, would be grateful for an eeked out small margin Romney win, but harbor a looming sense of anticipointment.

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