On the Other Hand, Or Steady On, Everyone

Lest Mike Murphy and Ramesh Ponnuru lead us all into the slough of despond, a hopeful note from Karl Rove, writing in today’s Wall Street Journal:

[I]t is like that the GOP will retain and even grow its House majority in 2014. Since 1938, the incumbent president’s party has lost an average of 33 House seats and seven Senate seats in the midterm following a re-election….

[And t]here are five Democratic representatives whose districts were carried by Mitt Romney and 39 other House Democrats re-elected with less than 55 percent of the vote. Seven of the 20 Democratic senators up next time are in states Mr. Romney won, six of which he carried by double digits.

Feel better?

  1. MichaelC19fan

    The same Karl Rove who predicted a Romney win based on “historical” circumstances.

  2. Austin Murrey

    FDR, arguably the second-worst 20th century president, was reelected four times and the Republican party soldiered on.  I’ll give up the fight if and only if an better alternative to America is presented.  Frankly, I don’t see that happening on this Earth.

  3. Tom Lindholtz

    Not one whit….err, Whig.

  4. TeamAmerica

    Peter,

    I have an off-topic question. Both Mark Steyn and Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy feel, as I do, that socialized medicine forever changes the relation of citizen to the government. The Swiss system AFAIK, lets people buy their own insurance with the gov’t  giving subsidies to low-income people. They spend much less than the US as a percent of gdp on their health care, while covering 99%. Since this is more of a private system than we now have, and resembles Paul Ryan’s Medicare proposals, I’m guessing that a Republican administration would have an easier job advocating this as an alternative to Obasmacare than the simple repeal of Obamacare. Do you think this system, where you still buy insurance in the private market, would work assuming it involved much less regulation than the 2,000page Obasmacare law, and that it’d be less likely to foster the dependence on and subservience to gov’t that Kennedy and Steyn fear? Also, if you ever interview Mark Steyn, could you ask him this question?

  5. BrentB67

    No, I don’t feel better. Republicans have had a majority since 2010 and have pissed away every opportunity to take any form of a stand for reigning in government spending. Republicans could have a 435 seat majority in the House and still not pass a balanced budget if they had all year to do it.

    Having a House full of Big Government Growing Slight Less Fast Than The Other Guys is of no interest.

  6. ConservativeWanderer

    Speaking of the title of the post, “Steady On” still means going straight over the fiscal cliff.

  7. Chris Gregerson
    ConservativeWanderer

    Chriscojo: Concur with Austin Murrey. At the local level it’s time to do all year campaigning.  Not the door-to-door GOTV efforts. But educational efforts. We don’t own the schools nor the media, but we can raise funds to establish Republican Education Centers, or some such facilities. We could be teaching topics like: What Family Values Mean – and How to Do It; or more mundane subjects like: How to Start a Business, or do STEM and history tutoring in the places that need them. We can teach How to Save for Retirement and other practical courses that will demonstrate our values. The overall topic could be: How To Take Care of Yourself in the Modern World.

    Why can’t we start local papers with names likeThe Conservative Reader?

    Why can’t we buy those old single screen movie theaters to show conservative valued films (help me with an example here)?

    We need to take to the neighborhoods and fight back. TODAY!!! · 0 minutes ago

    Who would patronize these?

    The choir.

    The Obamaphone sheeple would recoil like a vampire from a cross. · 50 minutes ago

    We would in our local districts for our local folks.

  8. ConservativeWanderer
    Chriscojo

    ConservativeWanderer

    Who would patronize these?

    The choir.

    The Obamaphone sheeple would recoil like a vampire from a cross. · 50 minutes ago

    We would in our local districts for our local folks. · 1 minute ago

    Exactly.

    You don’t need to be convinced that conservatism is a good idea.

    The people that do need to be convinced wouldn’t patronize those businesses.

  9. Leigh

    I suppose, in the sense that if even Karl Rove were predicting that the Republicans were going to lose the House, I’d feel worse. 

    Seriously, my suspicion right now is that getting rid of the Republican majority in 2014 is somewhere near the top of Obama’s priority list.  We’ve moved from Operation Destroy Romney to Operation Destroy House Republicans.  He’s not interested in trying to govern with them; he’s going to spend the next two years the way he spent the last two: campaigning against them to try to get them out of his way.

    Of course, he didn’t succeed in making Pelosi Speaker again in 2012, but he had that guy Mitt Romney to worry about.  And the Senate could have been very uncomfortable if the Republicans  hadn’t conveniently started shooting themselves in the foot.  2014 will be all about the House.

  10. Frozen Chosen

    Uh…NO!

    The GOP lost senate seats this year when they should’ve easily picked up at least 2 or 3.  Why would 2014 be any different?

  11. Eeyore

    Your optimism can certainly brighten any day, Peter.

    As did Paul Rahe’s optimism concerning the upcoming Romney landslide.

  12. Gus Marvinson

    Peter, if you choose to draw your grief from the wells of Mike Murphy and Ramesh Ponnuru, and your cheer from Karl Rove, it’s a wonder you can make any sense of the world at all.

    Every time I see the bylines of these guys I hear circus music.

  13. das_motorhead

    I can’t wait to get my hands on that new book by Rove and Dick Morris. I think the working title was, “Why I’m never wrong: the art of post-hoc analysis in the modern political era.”

    Rove, like former Broncos coach Mike Shanahan who was also known as “The Mastermind,” had his day and did pretty well. They both had two big wins and a solid list of small ones, but Shanahan reached a point where his playbook no longer worked in Denver, the Broncos collapsed year after year, and he was canned.

    This ain’t 2004 anymore and Rove’s playbook is long obsolete. He’s still using old models to make predictions, he’s lost all ability to adapt. He’s useless. If he want’s to make a difference in 2014-16, he can start by taking Ted Cruz’s coffee order.

  14. dittoheadadt

    Karl Rove?  Let’s ask Norv Turner how to win a Super Bowl.  Seriously, folks, when will we shed the advisers who continue to miss?

  15. John Walker

    In my experience the consultant class, focused always on the next election (since finding those to hire them to win it is how they earn their living), will always argue moving to the centre to try to pick off enough votes to assemble a majority.  I don’t see any evidence this works better than the null hypothesis (not trying to appeal to any particular group) because those in the centre tend to be low-information voters inclined to choose based on hair style, comments of comedians, or the preferences of their peer group.

    What the Left has been doing for the better part of a century, and the Democrat party since the New Deal, is Gramsci‘s strategy: shift the centre in their direction by capturing the institutions that form the electorate’s world view and creating dependent classes who will vote their own self-interest.

    This strategy takes decades, but it demonstrably works.  Believers in individual liberty need to take the same kind of long view, but at times I despair that it’s now too late to reverse course.

  16. Valiuth

    Yah well Rove and didn’t do much to win anything last time around. We better have some good candidates lined up. Because if we have to suffer through another crop of idiots running for Senate like Witch Lady and Rape Man there is no hope. 

    We could have pushed leads in the Senate this time around too but we messed it up. I mean seriously!! It is time to march Rove and the old guard into the desert and leave them for the vultures. They are playing us all for saps. Their PACs are just ways to line their own pockets, their strategies are a failure. No more optimism. I want cold hard pessimism. 

  17. Chris Gregerson
    ConservativeWanderer

    Chriscojo

    ConservativeWanderer

    Who would patronize these?

    The choir.

    The Obamaphone sheeple would recoil like a vampire from a cross. · 50 minutes ago

    We would in our local districts for our local folks. · 1 minute ago

    Exactly.

    You don’t need to be convinced that conservatism is a good idea.

    The people that do need to be convinced wouldn’t patronize those businesses. · 1 hour ago

    Not thinking of it as a business but rather as continuous outreach. Anticipate it will be real quiet at first, but eventually those who need services like tutoring will show up with their kids. They’ll drink your coffee, and sometime listen to your message. Without a presence nothing can happen. If we can peal off 10% more of the vote, we win.

  18. Meriadoc
    ConservativeWanderer:

    As I stated on your other thread today:

    • In Arizona, the GOP lost 4 seats in each the State Senate and the State House of Representatives.

    • In Montana, the GOP lost 5 seats in the State House of Representatives.
    • In Texas — deep red Texas, for the Gipper’s sake! — the GOP lost 5 seats in their State House of Representatives.

    We’re losing some of the reddest of the red states. This does not bode well for 2014 or any other year in the foreseeable future. · 3 hours ago

    Regarding your Texas house data, some perspective is called for: although it is true that we went slightly backwards (by six, not five as you report), Republicans still hold a substantial majority in the Texas house: 95-65. The previous super-majority of 101-49 was really unsustainable.

    And lest you think that the “trend” is against us, throughout the 2000′s R’s held a more slender majority than they do now. As recently as 2006-2008, R’s held a very slender 78-76 majority. This was down from the more or less 80-70 lead they maintained earlier in the decade.

  19. BrentB67
    Meriadoc

    ConservativeWanderer:

    As I stated on your other thread today:

    • In Arizona, the GOP lost 4 seats in each the State Senate and the State House of Representatives.

    • In Montana, the GOP lost 5 seats in the State House of Representatives.
    • In Texas — deep red Texas, for the Gipper’s sake! — the GOP lost 5 seats in their State House of Representatives.

    We’re losing some of the reddest of the red states. This does not bode well for 2014 or any other year in the foreseeable future. · 3 hours ago

    Regarding your Texas house data, some perspective is called for: although it is true that we went slightly backwards (by six, not five as you report), Republicans still hold a substantial majority in the Texas house: 95-65. The previous super-majority of 101-49 was really unsustainable.

    I would add to this that most Texas democrats are well to the right of a majority of republican U.S. Congressional reps.

    Democrats could hold every seat in the House and Senate in Texas and we would still be more fiscally conservative than Big Government Boehner and Co.

  20. BrentB67
    Paul Wilson: While 2006 was undoubted a congressional wipe-out for the party holding the White House, surely Karl Rove remembers the 1998 elections. Republicans lost 5 House seats and failed to enlarge their 55-seat Senate majority that year.  · 3 hours ago

    Edited 3 hours ago

    Mr. Rove also forgets that his efforts at expanding the federal government in the name of compassionate conservatism to make a permanent republican majority enslaved to Medicare is exactly what got the republicans sent to the political hinterland in 2006.