More Election Predictions

With one day to go before the election, the focus on Ohio has awoken memories of the state’s decisive role in the 2004 presidential race.

By carrying Ohio this year, President Barack Obama has bet the keys to his house on doing what Massachusetts Senator John Kerry couldn’t do eight years ago: block the Republican nominee’s path to victory. No Republican, after all, has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio.

There’s one wrinkle, however, thanks to the decennial reapportionment. If the electoral map in 2004 looked like electoral map today, President George W. Bush would have still won the Electoral College even if Kerry had pulled off a narrow victory in Ohio.

What does this mean for tomorrow night? The bet here is that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will carry Ohio but will win enough other electoral votes that he could have captured the White House even without the Buckeye State’s 18.

  1. DocJay

    My hope as well.   I expect both paths to bear fruit.  

  2. Jonathan Horn
    C
    DocJay: My hope as well.   I expect both paths to bear fruit.   · 2 minutes ago

    There’s comfort in numbers.

  3. Gabriel Sullice

    I’m not sure how useful that conclusion is. It is very likely that if Mitt Romney lost Ohio, he very well might not win the other states necessary to put him over the top, i.e., the same fervor not felt in Ohio in that scenario would cause him to lose PA, IA, &c.

  4. Jonathan Horn
    C
    Gabriel Sullice: I’m not sure how useful that conclusion is. It is very likely that if Mitt Romney lost Ohio, he very well might not win the other states necessary to put him over the top, i.e., the same fervor not felt in Ohio in that scenario would cause him to lose PA, IA, &c. · 3 minutes ago

    I don’t disagree with what you’re saying. I am just betting that Romney’s victory tomorrow night won’t turn on Ohio alone.

  5. Gabriel Sullice
    Jonathan Horn

    Gabriel Sullice: I’m not sure how useful that conclusion is. It is very likely that if Mitt Romney lost Ohio, he very well might not win the other states necessary to put him over the top, i.e., the same fervor not felt in Ohio in that scenario would cause him to lose PA, IA, &c. · 3 minutes ago

    I don’t disagree with what you’re saying. I am just betting that Romney’s victory tomorrow night won’t turn on Ohio alone. · 1 minute ago

    God willing! I agree wholeheartedly then.

  6. Pig Man

    I will try my best to make this post without sounding snarky.    Please forgive me if I am otherwise.

    I don’t know where you all are getting your confidence.  Things are looking really bad for Romney now.  He is behind in most national polls,  the battlegrounds are looking even worse.  Intrade is giving him a 33% chance, Nate Silver at 14% chance, and RCP no toss ups shows him losing the EV 235-303.   His forays into WI and PA are obviously desperate attempts to find a way around OH.  Even FL is close.   His only hope is that polls have vastly overestimated Dem tournout.  Its going to be long 4 years for the good folks at this site. 

  7. Frozen Chosen

    After much internal turmoil this past week I can truly say that I am finally at peace – Romney will win.

  8. Kozak
    Pig Man: I will try my best to make this post without sounding snarky.    Please forgive me if I am otherwise.

    I don’t know where you all are getting your confidence.  Things are looking really bad for Romney now.  He is behind in most national polls,  the battlegrounds are looking even worse.  Intrade is giving him a 33% chance, Nate Silver at 14% chance, and RCP no toss ups shows him losing the EV 235-303.   His forays into WI and PA are obviously desperate attempts to find a way around OH.  Even FL is close.   His only hope is that polls have vastly overestimated Dem tournout.  Its going to be long 4 years for the good folks at this site.  · 3 minutes ago

    Romney wins big, it won’t be close.  Republican numbers are up, democratic  numbers are down, and independents are breaking big for Romney.  The polls are frankly bull…..   

  9. Erik Larsen

    In the future, since one state seems to be so decisive, we could all save time, anxiety, and money by just having an initial “Proxy Presidential Election” in Ohio.  If the results are somewhat equivocal and inconclusive, a more definitive and wider vote could be solicited from the rest of the country.

    Alternatively, we could just watch the Redskins final home game and use that as a pretty accurate proxy

  10. Anthony Kaiser

    The worst that happens tomorrow is Obama wins a narrow victory (Reagan, Clinton, and Bush the Younger all improved vote percentages and margin of victory in their re-election wins; Obama won’t).  Republicans hold the House easily and end up in the same place in the Senate (although I think they’ll pick up a seat).  Obama then gets to learn that the second term is much tougher than the first and a good number of red state Democrat senators are going to be thinking about their 2014 race.  That sounds pretty entertaining to me, except for the part where the economy crashes, but I’m afraid that is already baked into the cake.

  11. E. Blackadder

    Isaac Asimov was way ahead of you, with his short story Franchise.

    Erik Larsen: In the future, since one state seems to be so decisive, we could all save time, anxiety, and money by just having an initial “Proxy Presidential Election” in Ohio.  If the results are somewhat equivocal and inconclusive, a more definitive and wider vote could be solicited from the rest of the country.

    Alternatively, we could just watch the Redskins final home game and use that as a pretty accurate proxy · 16 minutes ago

  12. Ralphie

    I’m here in mid Michigan, and Obama is running a lot of ads. I think I’ve seen three in the last hour with Colin Powell.  Must be close. Also, anecdotaly, I counted 13 businesses on my 16 mile ride home from work with Romney signs displayed.  I am in a blue county, and cannot remember the same for McCain. Enthusiasm way down here.

  13. Nick Stuart

    My prediction:  By 6:00 a.m. Wednesday Nov. 6, the talking heads will have already begun speculating about 2016. By noon Gallup, Rasmussen, PPP, &tc. will have their first swing state polls.

  14. Pig Man

    Oh no please not!   We need a break!

  15. Frank Soto
    Pig Man: I don’t know where you all are getting your confidence.  Things are looking really bad for Romney now.  He is behind in most national polls,  the battlegrounds are looking even worse.  Intrade is giving him a 33% chance, Nate Silver at 14% chance, and RCP no toss ups shows him losing the EV 235-303.   His forays into WI and PA are obviously desperate attempts to find a way around OH.  Even FL is close.   His only hope is that polls have vastly overestimated Dem tournout.  Its going to be long 4 years for the good folks at this site.  · 35 minutes ago

    Too much faith has been put in the average of Polls because they have had a couple of good cycles.  The last two times A democrat incumbent faced reelection, the average of polls underestimate the Republican’s support by over 5%.    

    As for Silver, he’s a victim of this recent good track record of polling.  In 2008, it was the first election in modern times where the average of polls EXACTLY matched the actual margin.  It was the perfect cycle for predictions.  When he misses multiple swing states his stock will drop.

  16. DocJay
    Pig Man: I will try my best to make this post without sounding snarky.    Please forgive me if I am otherwise.

    I don’t know where you all are getting your confidence.  Things are looking really bad for Romney now.  He is behind in most national polls,  the battlegrounds are looking even worse.  Intrade is giving him a 33% chance, Nate Silver at 14% chance, and RCP no toss ups shows him losing the EV 235-303.   His forays into WI and PA are obviously desperate attempts to find a way around OH.  Even FL is close.   His only hope is that polls have vastly overestimated Dem tournout.  Its going to be long 4 years for the good folks at this site.  · 47 minutes ago

    It will be a long four years for our country.  You can guarantee a continued recession.    

  17. Frozen Chosen
    Ralphie: I’m here in mid Michigan, and Obama is running a lot of ads. I think I’ve seen three in the last hour with Colin Powell.  Must be close. Also, anecdotaly, I counted 13 businesses on my 16 mile ride home from work with Romney signs displayed.  I am in a blue county, and cannot remember the same for McCain. Enthusiasm way down here. · 7 minutes ago

    The Obama campaign has been pounding the Colin Powell ad here in Minnesota as well so they must think it’s their best one.

    BTW, thanks a lot for that, general.  You can quit calling yourself a Republican now.  Oh, and I’m sure your endorsement had NOTHING to do with race. 

     Yeah, right!

  18. Pig Man
    Kozak

    Pig Man: I will try my best to make this post without sounding snarky.    Please forgive me if I am otherwise.

    I don’t know where you all are getting your confidence.  Things are looking really bad for Romney now.  He is behind in most national polls,  the battlegrounds are looking even worse.  Intrade is giving him a 33% chance, Nate Silver at 14% chance, and RCP no toss ups shows him losing the EV 235-303.   His forays into WI and PA are obviously desperate attempts to find a way around OH.  Even FL is close.   His only hope is that polls have vastly overestimated Dem tournout.  Its going to be long 4 years for the good folks at this site.  · 3 minutes ago

    Romney wins big, it won’t be close.  Republican numbers are up, democratic  numbers are down, and independents are breaking big for Romney.  The polls are frankly bull…..    · 43 minutes ago

    It’s comments like this that make me love this site.    Are you going to take advantage of the great odds at Intrade?  You can plop down $1000 and walk away with a cool $2000 when your man wins.

  19. ConservativeWanderer

    Pig Man, Romney is ahead among people highly likely to vote. Obama is ahead in people not very likely to vote. This is the key.

    Many point to a Romney win. He does well among “high-propensity-voting” blocs such as, in the Battleground Poll, seniors (54 percent), married voters (56 percent), weekly church attendees (59 percent), white evangelicals (79 percent), and gun owner householders (60 percent). He also leads among key demographic groups such as suburban voters (54 percent), Catholics (53 percent), and middle class voters (52 percent). 

    Obama has large leads among groups such as Hispanics with a lower propensity to vote. “If the president’s campaign is not able to replicate his 2008 electorate (which is looking increasingly unlikely), the president loses,” Goeas says.

  20. Mr. Dart

    Gallup finally posted their first poll since before Sandy.  It shows Romney’s 5 point lead (October 28 poll) being cut to 1. 

    Romney 49%/ Obama 48%