Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama

That’s according to ABC News. Without having dived into the polling data, I am pretty sure that Minnesota will cast its electoral votes for the president, though Pennsylvania may be a closer case; it has remained on Romney’s radar for a while. But think of this: If two states once thought to be reliably blue are thinking of going red, how much ground might the president be losing in other places?

I think the momentum is clearly with Romney, but I have a confession to make. While I certainly don’t believe that the president will achieve the margin of victory suggested here, I do think–and this is based on having gone through a number of scenarios–that Barack Obama has more paths to 270 electoral votes than Mitt Romney does, which would suggest that the president is more likely to win. So I guess that the only thing that I can say to readers who want Romney to win is this: Prove me wrong.

Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.

I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious.

  1. MichaelC19fan

    How many times has PA and OR treated the GOP POTUS candidate like Lucy with the football fools Charlie Brown? I will believe it when I see it.  

  2. BrentB67

    It is interesting, but just political theatre. If Obama wins by 1 vote in either state or 1 million it doesn’t matter and he still has a much easier path to the electoral college victory.

    Close only counts in  hand grenades, horseshoes, and tactical nukes.

  3. ParisParamus

    I think the third-party candidate Dems Stayhome will play a pivotal part in this election.

  4. AnnaS

    I actually hate coming to Ricochet anymore. The articles are so depressing!

  5. Frozen Chosen

    The recent MN Star Tribune poll was +5 D so a strong GOP turnout could put the state in Romney’s column.

    More troubling for Obama should be the fact that he can’t crack 47% in this poll.

  6. ConservativeWanderer
    Frozen Chosen: More troubling for Obama should be the fact that he can’t crack 47% in this poll. · 1 minute ago

    That 47% number keeps showing up, doesn’t it? (wink, nod)

  7. wmartin

    Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad.

  8. DocJay

    All of sillies can smile now.  Romney will win this election.  He will narrowly win Ohio and Wisconsin.   Romney is not only campaigning in Florida but picking up a very large check or three in person.    

    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 1 hour ago

  9. Frozen Chosen
    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why?  Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual.  Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country?

  10. Bruce in Marin

    If the only admissible evidence in the case is the RCP average of polls, then pessimism is justified.  If on the other hand you find the argument persuasive that Democratic turnout advantage can not possibly be as high as the crosstabs in the vast majority of those polls have it, then you will reach a different conclusion.  

    Myself, I find most of the polls absurd based on their presumed D/R ratio.  I also cannot ignore all the evidence, both anecdotal and poll-based, that in fact Romney supporters are far more enthusiastic than the bitter Obama-clingers.  To me, this smells like… victory.

  11. wmartin
    Frozen Chosen

    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why?  Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual.  Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit.

  12. wmartin
    Bruce in Marin:

    Myself, I find most of the polls absurd based on their presumed D/R ratio.  I also cannot ignore all the evidence, both anecdotal and poll-based, that in fact Romney supporters are far more enthusiastic than the bitter Obama-clingers.  To me, this smells like… victory. · 56 minutes ago

    The polls don’t have a “presumed D/R ratio.” Only Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP weight by party id.

  13. Keith

    I think if Romney wanted to win Minnesota, he’d have Ryan visit with Santorum. Santorum and Paul were the only two candidates we were enthusiastic about.

  14. James Of England
    Pejman Yousefzadeh:

    Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.

    I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious. · · 6 hours ago

    Pejman, if you decide to effect a real difference and make campaign calls, could I ask you to report back here on how it goes? There’s a ton of people who want to help, but feel nervous about it. As a respected figure, your modelling correct behavior and demonstrating that it’s not scary would be helpful.

  15. James Of England
    wmartin

    Frozen Chosen

    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why?  Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual.  Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it.

  16. wmartin
    Keith Bruzelius: I think if Romney wanted to win Minnesota, he’d have Ryan visit with Santorum. Santorum and Paul were the only two candidates we were enthusiastic about. · 13 minutes ago

    I would keep Rick Santorum as far away as possible. We really don’t need his tons of baggage in the last week.

  17. wmartin
    James Of England

    wmartin

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it. · 14 minutes ago

    If that’s where we actually are in Florida, I am relieved. Just for the record, what is your sense of Ohio (if you have one)? I would like to see something other than Rasmussen and claims of internal polling showing us with a lead.

  18. Lucy Pevensie
    James Of England

    wmartin

    Frozen Chosen

    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why?  Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual.  Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it.

    @wmartin: In contrast, take a look at Bill Clinton campaigning in Minnesota.  Now that’s a sign of things looking bad for the Dems.

  19. James Of England
    wmartin

    James Of England

    wmartin

    If that’s where we actually are in Florida, I am relieved. Just for the record, what is your sense of Ohio (if you have one)? I would like to see something other than Rasmussen and claims of internal polling showing us with a lead. ·

    I honestly don’t know about Ohio. There are so many states, each with their own issues and twists, that I don’t think anyone knows what the map will look like. I do think that an Ohio-less victory has been looking ever more likely over the last month. This week’s Nevada early vote has cheered up a bit. Iowa’s biggest paper switched endorsements. Colorado and Nevada’s military vote has been energized. Pennsylvania is possible (and the flood definitely helps there, diminishing the Philly vote while leaving Harrisburg alone).

  20. ConservativeWanderer
    Lucy Pevensie

    James Of England

    wmartin

    Frozen Chosen

    wmartin: Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad. · 2 hours ago

    Why?  Let’s face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it’s business as usual.  Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that’s plenty.

    You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago

    We’re mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can’t be seen to abandon it.

    @wmartin: In contrast, take a look at Bill Clinton campaigning in Minnesota.  Now that’s a sign of things looking bad for the Dems. · 11 minutes ago

    I still wonder if Billy would rather Obama win, or lose.