Latest Election Polls

Your daily round-up of the latest polls:

Gallup Tracking    Obama 50, Romney 45    Obama +5

Rasmussen Tracking    Obama 49, Romney 47    Obama +2

Florida: WeAskAmerica    Obama 46, Romney 49    Romney +3

Virginia: Rasmussen Reports    Obama 48, Romney 49    Romney +1

Virginia: WeAskAmerica    Obama 45, Romney 48    Romney +3

Ohio: Rasmussen Reports    Obama 50,…

  1. Paul A. Rahe
    C

    In which cases was the sampling done after the debates?

  2. wmartin

    For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.

    Ras’s state polls have  better news, though.

  3. Rob in N.CA

    What’s the margin of error in each poll? If either holds a lead smaller than the margin, it should be referenced as a straight up tie, or tie leaning for one or the other..

  4. The Mugwump
    wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.

    Ras’s state polls have  better news, though. · 1 minute ago

    Rasmussen’s national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average.  Full results won’t be available until Sunday morning.

  5. Mollie Hemingway
    C
    Paul A. Rahe: In which cases was the sampling done after the debates? · 13 minutes ago

    Numbers Muncher on Twitter says:

    Rasmussen in OH/VA/FL and WeAskAmerica OH/VA/FL all were post-debate..

  6. Nathan Leberknight

    In other words, we still have a very winnable fight on our hands, one that’s nowhere close to finished. Keep calm and carry on.

  7. Michael Kelly

    Michael Barone said on the Podcast this week that we would not really begin seeing any bounce in the polls until at least tomorrow since most of the major polling is on a 3 day or 5 day cycle. 

  8. Valiuth

    In Ohio at least there are signs that Obama may not be doing as well as polls show. I talk about it in a post I had last night. 

    Early voting which was much to Obama favor last time is down this time and the gap in participants is much closer. Also party affiliation gaps in many Ohio counties is favoring Republicans. I think a lot of this is flying under the radar of poles…but this is stuff that actually makes elections.  

  9. ConservativeWanderer

    I ask again, how many of these polls oversampled Democrats?

  10. dittoheadadt

    If the polls more than 3 weeks out from the election prove to have been worthless, useless, and meaningless, shall we ask President Romney to pursue a Con Amendment banning them?  I am so sick and tired of seeing polls.  It’s not “news.”

    If the election were held today…but it ISN’T.  If it were, then both campaigns would’ve scheduled their stuff to hit BEFORE today.  Their strategic and tactical timetable is November 6th, not yesterday, not today, not tomorrow.  Election Day!!! (which is why I think early voting ought to be outlawed as well)

    Anyway, this concludes my rant.

    [edited for Code of Conduct]

  11. quodlibet
    ~Paules

    wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.

    Ras’s state polls have  better news, though. · 1 minute ago

    Rasmussen’s national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average.  Full results won’t be available until Sunday morning. · 27 minutes ago

    Is Gallup’s also a three-day rolling average?  Anyone know?

  12. wmartin
    ~Paules

    wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.

    Ras’s state polls have  better news, though. · 1 minute ago

    Rasmussen’s national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average.  Full results won’t be available until Sunday morning. · 54 minutes ago

    Yes, that’s why I said both Gallup and Rasmussen “each had one night” post-debate.

  13. wmartin
    quodlibet

    ~Paules

    wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.

    Ras’s state polls have  better news, though. · 1 minute ago

    Rasmussen’s national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average.  Full results won’t be available until Sunday morning. · 27 minutes ago

    Is Gallup’s also a three-day rolling average?  Anyone know? · 26 minutes ago

    Gallup is a 7 day track (which is a ludicrous way of doing a poll this late). Obama gained a point today, so there weren’t any dramatic pro-Romney swings.

  14. captainpower

    Frank Luntz said on the Dennis Prager show yesterday that Romney’s performance in the last debate pulls him even with President Obama.

    According to Luntz, Romney needs another win like that to decisively pull ahead.

    He also said it’s not a good sign when people are arguing with polls.

    (Not completely unexpected that a pollster would have such an opinion. Doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate though.)

    Prager 20121004 – 2 Debate One, Two Prager H2: Dennis continues his analysis of last night’s debate, playing clips and deconstructing the candidates’ answers… Dennis talks to Frank Luntz, renowned “message-guy” and Fox News political analyst. http://pragertopia.com/2012/10/04/dennis-prager-radio-show-20121004-hr-2/

    RealClearPolitics average is currently at Obama +3.2

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

  15. Lucy Pevensie
    wmartin

    quodlibet

    ~Paules

    wmartin: For the national polls, Rasmussen and Gallup each had one night after the debate. Romney gained no ground in Ras and lost a point in Gallup.

    Ras’s state polls have  better news, though. · 1 minute ago

    Rasmussen’s national poll is conducted on a three day rolling average.  Full results won’t be available until Sunday morning. · 27 minutes ago

    Is Gallup’s also a three-day rolling average?  Anyone know? · 26 minutes ago

    Gallup is a 7 day track (which is a ludicrous way of doing a poll this late). Obama gained a point today, so there weren’t any dramatic pro-Romney swings.

    A point is statistical noise, and it would have to be a stunningly big swing to move a 7-day average. You would also have to look back a week and see what happened between the day they dropped off the list and the last day on the list. 

  16. ConservativeWanderer
    captainpower: Frank Luntz said on the Dennis Prager show yesterday that Romney’s performance in the last debate pulls him even with President Obama.

    According to Luntz, Romney needs another win like that to decisively pull ahead.

    He also said it’s not a good sign when people are arguing with polls.

    (Not completely unexpected that a pollster would have such an opinion. Doesn’t mean it’s inaccurate though.)

    Prager 20121004 – 2 Debate One, Two Prager H2: Dennis continues his analysis of last night’s debate, playing clips and deconstructing the candidates’ answers… Dennis talks to Frank Luntz, renowned “message-guy” and Fox News political analyst. http://pragertopia.com/2012/10/04/dennis-prager-radio-show-20121004-hr-2/

    RealClearPolitics average is currently at Obama +3.2

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html · 12 minutes ago

    Edited 10 minutes ago

    Well, gee, if RCP has Obama winning, I guess there’s no reason for me to go to the polls in a few weeks to vote for the presumptive loser Romney, is there?

  17. RightinChicago
    Valiuth:  I think a lot of this is flying under the radar of poles…but this is stuff that actually makes elections.   · 2 hours ago

    And given their close proximity to Russia, I have heard that the Poles have excellent radar. 

    Thanks folks.  I’ll be here all week.  Tip your server and enjoy the buffet.

  18. ConservativeWanderer
    RightinChicago

    Valiuth:  I think a lot of this is flying under the radar of poles…but this is stuff that actually makes elections.   · 2 hours ago

    And given their close proximity to Russia, I have heard that the Poles have excellent radar. 

    Thanks folks.  I’ll be here all week.  Tip your server and enjoy the buffet. · 0 minutes ago

    (rimshot)

  19. Whiskey Sam

    I’m a little surprised at Kaine +7 in VA, yet Romney leads in both polls.  That Allen-Kaine race was 45-45 all summer, and nothing has really changed.  Where did the bump come from?

  20. Brian

    This is fantastic news.  Florida, Ohio, and Virginia all in play, showing Romney pulling ahead, by polls fully conducted post-debate.  Nevada as well.  And the poll last week in Pennsylvania showing Romney in play was a huge deal if it proves accurate.  Give it a week as the dust settles, but these state polls are highly encouraging and should be reflected in the national polls.

    Romney will need to seriously manage expectations for the second debate, but before that…maybe Paul Ryan can deliver another knock-out.

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