More on the huge and disturbing advantage the Left has on Get-Out-the-Vote psychology this year from the always-interesting Sasha Issenberg (emphasis added):
Those who just received an Election Day reminder turned out to vote at a rate 5 percentage points higher than a control group. But those who had first been contacted before election—when volunteers asked, as part of their scripts, “Can I count on you to vote?”—turned out at twice that rate after an Election Day follow-up.
As I wrote here recently, we should be afraid. Very, very afraid:
Progressives are far, far beyond our side in this effort to understand how to communicate with and mobilize voters.
The Left has already institutionalized GOTV field experiments, and they have an army of academics working with unions and other grassroots organizations to carry them out. They have learned from hundreds of experiments over 4-5 election cycles. We are very much behind in this game. They have a huge advantage in institutional knowledge and best-practices that will give them a large edge in GOTV effectiveness this fall.
If Romney continues to perform and Obama to stumble, then even a serious GOTV advantage won’t matter. But if this election is as close as it looks in key battleground states, then a 5-10 percent boost in Democratic turnout for key demographics is more than enough to win President Obama a second term.
We need to take social science very seriously . . . I don’t mean just microtargeting algorithms using observational data, but experimental social science in the field and in the lab. And we need to over-perform this year in other ways just to overcome the Progressive advantage in GOTV.