New-Yorker-Romney.jpg

From the “A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words” Department

Some further thoughts on the illustration gracing the cover of that rabidly right-wing magazine, the New Yorker:

Good debates have consequences:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.

The generation gap remains wide. Obama leads by double digits among those under 40. Romney leads by double digits among those over 40.

[. . .]

Post-debate state polls show Romney up one in Virginia,  the president up one in Ohio and Romney up two in Florida. All three remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”

Colorado is close now. As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics average has the president only up by half a point, with several individual polls showing Romney ahead. We see the same thing with various other polls nationwide, which are now showing a noticeable shift to Romney.

So there is a debate bounce. And it is favoring the challenger. No surprise; empty chairs don’t usually poll all that well.

  1. Western Chauvinist

    How can Romney get more of the youth vote? These are the last people who should be voting for Obama. Their future under Obama will be more like that of the youth of France or Spain — as jobless, hopeless, angry wards of the state.

  2. Brasidas
    Pejman Yousefzadeh: So there is a debate bounce. And it is favoring the challenger. No surprise; empty chairs don’t usually poll all that well. · · 16 minutes ago

    Well said, Pejman.  And, I am now — like a lot of folks, I suspect — much more interested in the second and third debates.  These present a very difficult challenge for Obama. His options are so very limited now.  He can’t play the cool, likable character that rises above petty politics because he’s down in the point count and needs to land some blows.  But, those blows can’t be snarky or zinger-driven because he came off as insubstantial and bored in the first debate and now needs to show a deep grasp of policy.  Romney came off as likable or, at least, not mean as viewers had been led to believe.  So, Obama has to do something in the next debates for which he is simply ill-equipped. He has to win via a somewhat detailed, reasoned defense of his policies — and do so without coming off as harsh, petty or mean.  It’s difficult for me to see how he pulls that off.  

  3. ctruppi

    I think the way the 1st debate panned out will make more people interested in at least the next debate.  Romney does really well in that one, and he wins on Nov 6. 

  4. Israel P.
    ctruppi: I think the way the 1st debate panned out will make more people interested in at least the next debate.  Romney does really well in that one, and he wins on Nov 6.  · 1 hour ago

    Media crown Obama the winner of the next debate simply by his doing less badly. Not looking down etc. That and the silly townhall format.

  5. Melanie Graham
    C

    I don’t count on the “youth” vote to actually leave their parents’ basements or dorm rooms to vote. There was a very nice inked girl we had working for us who just loved the prop in favor of the cigar tax here in CA. When the vote was very close later that day, she was very upset when her side seemed to be losing by a slim margin. And then she tells me she didn’t vote. I told her she was full of… “it.” I kind of went on and on about how full of it she was. I love lazy hipsters.

  6. Mike Rapkoch

     

     I was impressed by Romney. He took command and throttled Obama with both substance and rhetoric. He looked experienced at the discipline, which is not surprising since he attended BYU which, when I was a collegiate debater, produced some of the finest advocates I have known. But a cautionary note: a superb performance can lead to a type of malaise developing over the time between round 1 and round 2. I recall a debate against easily the finest team my partner and I ever met in competition.  After the debate there was a problem in the scoring room which resulted in a 5 hour delay before the next round. As the wait continued, the adrenaline drained.By the time of our next debate we were spent. We met one of the weakest opponents we had ever encountered–and we got whooped.  Romney is in the same place. There is strain in winning; sometimes more than in losing. Romney should take it easy now, let the rush ease, or next time he may become the whoopee rather than the whooper.

  7. Indaba
    Israel Pickholtz

    ctruppi: I think the way the 1st debate panned out will make more people interested in at least the next debate.  Romney does really well in that one, and he wins on Nov 6.  · 1 hour ago

    Media crown Obama the winner of the next debate simply by his doing less badly. Not looking down etc. That and the silly townhall format. · 10 minutes ago

    Edited 8 minutes ago

    The town hall, you know, will be touchy feely questions wanting touchy feely answers like Hope and Change. 

  8. Pejman Yousefzadeh
    C

    I can write a book on this subject. I’ll call it “What’s the Matter with Young People Who May or May Not Be from Kansas?”.

    Western Chauvinist: How can Romney get more of the youth vote? These are the last people who should be voting for Obama. Their future under Obama will be more like that of the youth of France or Spain — as jobless, hopeless, angry wards of the state. · 3 hours ago

  9. TKC1101

    This debate was the turning point in the non political obsessive public attitude. Just like Reagan appeared to an acceptable  alternative to a failed president instead of the image of the cowboy movie actor crazy man that was painted of him, Romney sucessfully became the acceptable alternative. People decided they could live with him on their TVs for four years.

  10. Percival

    Poll motion within the margin of error isn’t nothing, but it is within +/-3.5% of nothing.  The effect might take a while to show up.

    The cover of the New Yorker is definitely an effect, though.

  11. Devereaux

    I think the election results will not be shown by who supports whom now, but by who shows up to vote. And I firmly believe that a significant part of Obama’s 08 voter total will NOT show up this time. Blacks will come out in lesser numbers, as will youth and single women. Even liberals in general may not come out in the same numbers. While Romney may have gained only some additional voters, I believe he made Obama LOSE voters. And that’s just as good in the end.

  12. Cato Rand
     

    Please don’t expect my voting group to be rational, in general.  You’ll just disappoint yourself.

    How the heck do you explain to someone whowas talking to her Marine brother and summed up the debate as “well, Romney said he’d cut Sesame Street, even though that’s only like six minutes of the Pentagon’s spending, and it went down hill from there.”

    Yes, sheshould know that there’s a slight difference between national defense and preschooler entertainment.  She should’ve also learned from her college commune thing, where they smuggled their garbage into other groups’ garbage cans because they officially made no waste (!!!!), but you can’t teach someone who doesn’t want to learn, and you can’t reach someone who refuses to listen.

    No question much of the college vote is out of reach for Romney.  That’ll never be “cool” enough.  But I read today that Obama still had a double digit lead among those under 40.  Gotta be a lot of people between 22 and 40 who live a mile or two closer to the reality based community than the average college kid.  There’s pickup room there.

  13. Pencilvania
    Israel Pickholtz

    ctruppi: I think the way the 1st debate panned out will make more people interested in at least the next debate.  Romney does really well in that one, and he wins on Nov 6.  · 1 hour ago

    Media crown Obama the winner of the next debate simply by his doing less badly. Not looking down etc. That and the silly townhall format. · 20 hours ago

    Edited 20 hours ago

    Not to mention, Hempstead is at sea level - so the President’s cogitation will be razor-sharp.

  14. ConservativeWanderer
    Devereaux: I think the election results will not be shown by who supports whom now, but by who shows up to vote. And I firmly believe that a significant part of Obama’s 08 voter total will NOT show up this time. Blacks will come out in lesser numbers, as will youth and single women. Even liberals in general may not come out in the same numbers.  · 3 hours ago

    I’ve been arguing that for quite some time.

    Other groups that may not show up for Obama: the elderly and Catholics. ObamaCare and the associated mandates are likely to make both groups really ticked at Teh Won.

  15. Foxfier
    Western Chauvinist: How can Romney get more of the youth vote? These are the last people who should be voting for Obama. Their future under Obama will be more like that of the youth of France or Spain — as jobless, hopeless, angry wards of the state. · 1 hour ago

    Please don’t expect my voting group to be rational, in general.  You’ll just disappoint yourself.

    How the heck do you explain to someone who was talking to her Marine brother and summed up the debate as “well, Romney said he’d cut Sesame Street, even though that’s only like six minutes of the Pentagon’s spending, and it went down hill from there.”

    Yes, she should know that there’s a slight difference between national defense and preschooler entertainment.  She should’ve also learned from her college commune thing, where they smuggled their garbage into other groups’ garbage cans because they officially made no waste (!!!!), but you can’t teach someone who doesn’t want to learn, and you can’t reach someone who refuses to listen.

  16. Stuart Creque

    I was wrong about this cover illustration: I thought initially that it had been made in advance to mock Romney and the Right for thinking an empty chair would show up to the debate.  Other Ricochet readers pointed out the details in the picture that make it clear it was drawn after the debate.

    That illustrates a terrible problem for the President — not just that he’s disappointed his acolytes on the Left, but that they will now demand that he come out swinging at the next debate.  He was clearly coached not to show anger in response to Romney’s attacks — the President stutters, stammers, rambles and misspeaks when he’s angry, so the advice was good, but his implementation failed because it rendered him passive and mute.

    Now he’s got to show “passion” in the next debate and not let Romney’s attacks go unanswered.  And that means Romney will be able to lead the President into rhetorical traps and provoke him into errors of fact and presentation.

  17. HeartofAmerica
    Western Chauvinist: How can Romney get more of the youth vote? These are the last people who should be voting for Obama. Their future under Obama will be more like that of the youth of France or Spain — as jobless, hopeless, angry wards of the state. · Oct 6 at 10:54am

    After questioning my 22 yr old about his feelings on the debate, he reiterated his stance on both candidates which he feels are essentially the same person. His analogy:

    America has cancer. Both Romney and Obama are doctors. Romney’s take is that he agrees that the cancer is there but needs more tests, etc. before going into surgery to fix it. Obama, as a doctor, agrees that cancer exists but his answer is  that more cancer is needed and has no plans to provide any treatment.

    He will vote on Nov. 6 but his vote will go to Gary Johnson. Many of his friends will do the same. Our conversation regarding whether his vote is a “waste” is for another post at another time.

  18. Pejman Yousefzadeh
    C

    Increasingly, it is looking like this may be the case.

    TKC1101: This debate was the turning point in the non political obsessive public attitude. Just like Reagan appeared to an acceptable  alternative to a failed president instead of the image of the cowboy movie actor crazy man that was painted of him, Romney sucessfully became the acceptable alternative. People decided they could live with him on their TVs for four years. · Oct 6 at 3:12pm

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