Dick Morris Turns More Bearish on Romney

I note this without too much comment. Dick Morris is … an interesting person.  And he’s been pretty bullish on Romney for weeks. But now, he’s starting to hedge.  From Fox:

As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last wee…

  1. Colin B Lane

    Interesting person: Syn. = Goof.

  2. Rachel Lu
    C

    I’ll do my best to incorporate some subliminal messages into my lecture tomorrow. But since my students are mostly in the 18-22 age bracket, I’m not sure what message I should send. Should it be “Vote Romney” or “Stay away from the polls?”

  3. Paul A. Rahe
    C

    Today, Rasmussen has Romney up by one point.

  4. RightinChicago

    Dick’s latest Lunch Time Alert

    http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-blew-it-dick-morris-tv-special-election-alert/

    is titled “Obama Blew It!!!”

    I’d say he’s gone back to bullish.

  5. Paul A. Rahe
    C

    Rasmussen also has Romney up by 5% in Michigan.

  6. jpfred
    Paul A. Rahe: Rasmussen also has Romney up by 5% in Michigan. · 1 minute ago

    No–its Obama up 52-47 in Michigan.

  7. Colin B Lane
    Rachel Lu: I’ll do my best to incorporate some subliminal messages into my lecture tomorrow. But since my students are mostly in the 18-22 age bracket, I’m not sure what message I should send. Should it be “Vote Romney” or “Stay away from the polls?” · 5 minutes ago

    I vote “Stay away,” or perhaps “Don’t forget to vote this coming Wednesday.” 

    Most college students (save at Professor Rahe’s extraordinary institution) remain trapped in the childish “Obama as hero” narrative (remember, some of these kids were chanting those vaguely scary Obama-as-supreme-leader songs in their high schools four years ago). There’s not enough time to educate them now. 

  8. The Mugwump

    We’re all a bit manic at this point.  After all, the fate of the republic hangs in the balance.  I for one will trust the trends, and not the polls.  I find it difficult to believe that anyone could be undecided at this point.  Two to three percent still undecided?  Seriously?  The decision has been made in the minds of the electorate.  The judgment will be manifest in 36 hours.  And then we will know.   

  9. Rachel Lu
    C

    Well, exactly. Part of my point of course is that for most of us there’s not much we can do at this point. What will be, will be.

  10. James Of England

    If you want to work off your stress positively, could I recommend calling tonight? You’re not going to have a lot more opportunities to avoid regrets over not having done more.

    Rob endorses the claim that we should “work like hell”. I’m not sure that there’s time to do that now, but working the phone for a few hours today and hunkering down to make calls/ drive voters to the polls if you live in a swing state/do what ever the local HQ asks of you. That seems possible, and would still make a difference.

    The Obama campaign has been wiping the floor with us in terms of volunteers who have supported the campaign usefully for months. We traditionally outnumber their volunteers in the last couple of days, and it looks like we will this time as well. As more of the vote moves to absentee and early voting, it becomes more and more problematic that we wait so long, but it remains vital that we at least turn out for the end!

  11. James Of England
    Rachel Lu: Well, exactly. Part of my point of course is that for most of us there’s not much we can do at this point. What will be, will be. · 17 minutes ago

    Is there an epistemology element to this? If so, you might want to compare the CBO saying that the federal government will go bankrupt in 2027 under Obama’s plan (but would be sustainable under Ryan’s plan), with news about a another previous spiritual adviser saying that white men will go to hell. The latter is obviously trivial, the former is obviously fundamental, but the news has covered the latter in more detail, largely because it’s something we can all understand and relate to. With big issues, we all flee from complex reality to something which we can understand.

    For balance, compare Romney’s tax returns (trivial) with his desire to overturn Davis Bacon, which would reduce the amount paid to federal construction workers (a big deal; a less big deal than federal bankruptcy, but even more completely unheard).

    If you want people not to vote, reminding them that they’re ill informed and confused is more effective than telling them.

  12. Duane Oyen

    What I want to do is not drink water from the watercloset as so many did in  2006, when one screed after another said that polls always lie, pollsters hate Republicans, and the wave predicted to sweep Pelosi into power wasn’t really coming. It was, and it did.

    This year, nobody knows anything, and have pretty much proven that by coming up with a tie.  That may well be the case- that how the alleged “undecided” voters break will determine the outcome.

    But, be prepared.  If this goes against us, it will not be because the campaign was lousy, or the media (much as they have tried to help their guy) bias killed us by ignoring Benghazi, etc. 

    If we lose it will be because a majority of the electorate believes 1) that the US can disengage from the world without consequences- “soft power” that is all soft, no power, no costs, but also achieves nothing of value; and 2) that you can borrow to give half of the country stuff from its government without consequences, because you can pay it all back without reforming anything by raising taxes on the 2% of tax returns above $250,000.

  13. E35852

    I can’t remember ever feeling this stressed out before a presidential election and I have been paying close attention since Bush 41.  To help burn some nervous energy I went for a quick 3 mile run this morning and decided to count yard signs since I had a sense that I’d see more Romney than Obama. In my California central coast beach town I counted 1 Obama sign,  1 Ron Paul sign and 7 Romney signs.  It helped alleviate my manic state for about 20 minutes.  I can’t wait until it’s over!!!!!

  14. Keith Preston

    It’s worth noting that I got that same note from Dick in an email asking me to donate money to his superpac.

    Keep in mind Dick’s motives.  I think there are some good things in some of Morris’ analysis, but in the end, it’s all about the people who are paying him for placement in his emails, videos, etc.  He’s a rampant capitalist.

    I’m convinced that this is going to be a wave election, as Dr. Rahe has been saying for months.  I can see it from where I am because most of the “battleground” states are in the Midwest.  Many of the pollsters are missing people who didn’t vote in 2008 because of the times and the candidate. (and most of us have cel phones, but no land lines) We are convinced that the current occupant is intent on destroying the country.

    He will be voted out.  This IS almost 1980 redux.  And most will vote for Republican senators because they know it needs to happen to remove Obamacare.  I may be wrong, but I don’t think so.  This is what I see from flyover country.

  15. Frozen Chosen

    There’s a lot of poll noise out there right now but I think one of the key points is that – according to Karl Rove – more Republicans voting early in Ohio with fewer Dems voting early has meant a swing of 265,000 votes in the GOP favor.

    Obama’s margin in 2008?  263,000

    That’s a number you can sink your teeth into…

  16. Tom Lindholtz

    The basis for this to be even worth reading is the assumption that, A) a significant proportion of the actual voters still haven’t made up their minds a day or two before the election, and B) that pollsters are prescient enough to find those potential voters to query them. 

    I reject both assumptions. 

    Romney, 341…..or more.

  17. Illiniguy

    Rob, you and Peter are our fearless, well, not so fearless leaders. Think of more than your own fears, think first of the morale of the troops. This is no time to go all wobbly.

  18. Rob Long
    C
    Duane Oyen: What I want to do is not drink water from the watercloset as so many did in  2006, when one screed after another said that polls always lie, pollsters hate Republicans, and the wave predicted to sweep Pelosi into power wasn’t really coming. It was, and it did.

    If we lose it will be because a majority of the electorate believes 1) that the US can disengage from the world without consequences- “soft power” that is all soft, no power, no costs, but also achieves nothing of value; and 2) that you can borrow to give half of the country stuff from its government without consequences, because you can pay it all back without reforming anything by raising taxes on the 2% of tax returns above $250,000. · 53 minutes ago

    I agree.  If we lose — if — it won’t be for tactical reasons.  It will be because we’ve failed to convince most American voters that a smaller government that does less is the only way to prosper in freedom.   

  19. David Williamson
    Keith Preston: 

    Keep in mind Dick’s motives.  I think there are some good things in some of Morris’ analysis, but in the end, it’s all about the people who are paying him for placement in his emails, videos, etc.  He’s a rampant capitalist.

    OMG – how terrible! He was been my antidote for Ricochet podcast-induced pessimism for months now, and I think he continues to be right – hope so, anyway, otherwise all the capitalists are likely to move to Hong Kong, where many of them are, already.

  20. TucsonSean

    Just as i was getting bullish based on the horribly flawed CNN poll and rasmussen’s +1.  Only bourbon will smooth out my mood swings.  What time is it?

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