Daily Poll Update: Up! Down! Sideways!

Before we look at today’s polls, consider something John Podhoretz noted about the Marist data below. Marist says that 45 percent of the respondents to its Iowa poll claim to have voted early. The percentage of Iowans who have voted early is only 32 percent. Marist claims early voters broke 62-35 for Obama. The party identification for early voters is actually 43 percent Democratic to 32 percent Republican. So if Marist’s numbers are accurate, that means nearly all independents are voting for O…

  1. The King Prawn

    DocJay, what is wrong with your state?

  2. Copperfield

    A friend in NH said it feels “tight” there, though most of his friends are Romney supporters (no surprise, he’s a fairly libertarian guy).  When asked why they might again go for Obama, he said something to the effect of “MA is a cancer that is metastisizing into NH”.  We’ll see. 

    Tht NBC/WSJ/Marist poll from Iowa is sampling D+3 (D+4 if leaners are included), with 13% just independent and 4% undecided and a 3% MOE.  Just looking at a +6 lead with a sample of +3 or +4 is a little concerning. 

    The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll in Wisconsin is sampling D+5 (same with leaners).  The RCP average has Obama up +3.7% in Wisconsin, but it’s being skewed by a Marquette University poll that shows Obama up +8%, but is also sampling D+5 (same with leaners). 

    Will be interesting to see the employment report tomorrow and if it moves the polls.  We’ll see. 

    Thanks again, Mollie. 

     Update: A Wisconsin Public Radio poll was just posted showing the President up by +9%… but they’re sampling D+10.  This smacks of a “change the narrative” poll. 

  3. Doug Lee

    There’s an excellent piece on Powerline as to why Romney’s lead in the national polls isn’t reflected in state by state polls of battleground states: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/11/why-do-the-national-polls-tell-us-one-thing-and-the-battleground-state-polls-tell-us-another.php

    Basically, as I’ve noted before, the national polls are now much less skewed toward Democrats than they were before the first debate, while the state by state polls remained quite skewed.  The Dems are widely expected to have much poorer voter participation (the “enthusiasm gap” problem) than in 2008, PLUS Republicans have a 4 pt advantage in party affiliation over Dems now whereas the Dems had a 7 pt advantage in 2008 (an 11 pt swing toward the GOP).  Despite these huge advantages, pollsters are assuming that Dems will have a such a better turnout than their best-ever performance in 2008 that they are heavily weighting the polls to show either a slight Obama lead, or Romney leading but within the margin of error.

    The MSM loves two things:  a horse race, and helping Obama.  

  4. Pig Man

    Romney has slipped in the RCP national average to a tie.  According to RCP average  he is behind in OH, NV, CO, IA, NH, WI,MI and PA.  Intrade gives him a 31% chance.   Sandy and Christie have halted any momentum he had (which had been non-existant in the last two weeks anyway.)  Consumer sentiment is up.  Friday jobs report is important, but I doubt it will have much impact unless much worse than last one.  M0st f0lks already have an opinion on where the economy is headed.  Nobody cares about Benghazi or is even reporting it except FOX and folks who support Romney anyway.   Maybe there is the incredible Dem oversample in all the polls and all the GOP pundits understand the situation better than the professional pollsters.   Maybe all your the good vibes and sweet smells you feel will pan  out.  Just maybe.   We shall see.  

  5. liberal jim

    Obama is campaigning in WI today, even after picking Ryan people were saying Romney did not stand much of a chance in that state.  Seems as if Obama thinks otherwise.  I remember all of the stories that were based on polling before the election about Romney being in trouble and the election being all but over.   Romney as done better than I thought and may win.  

  6. Doug Lee

    And, lest we forget, let’s take this trip down memory lane:

    Two Weeks Out – Nine Reasons Why Democrats Will Keep Control of the House

    Monday 18 October 2010

    http://archive.truthout.org/robert-creamer-two-weeks-out-nine-reasons-why-democrats-will-keep-control-house64299

  7. Pig Man
    liberal jim: Obama is campaigning in WI today, even after picking Ryan people were saying Romney did not stand much of a chance in that state.  Seems as if Obama thinks otherwise.  I remember all of the stories that were based on polling before the election about Romney being in trouble and the election being all but over.   Romney as done better than I thought and may win.   · 5 minutes ago

    Romney should be way ahead now given the state of the economy.    When Obama didn’t show up for  the first debate and Romney was strong, Romney was able to erase most of the bad effects of the GOP  c0nvention  debacle and negative ads and surge.  So now it is close and Romney could certainly pull it off.    However,  the odds are against it. 

  8. The King Prawn
    Pig Man:   Friday jobs report is important, but I doubt it will have much impact unless much worse than last one. 

    If the California numbers are included in this one (and last month is revised to include them) it could cause a bigger than expected change.

  9. Pig Man

    We’ll find out tomorrow.

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