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Daily Poll Update: Swing States Swingin’

California: SurveyUSA    Obama 53, Romney 39    Obama +14

Colorado: CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac    Romney 48, Obama 47    Romney +1

Florida: NBC/WSJ/Marist    Romney 47, Obama 48    Obama +1

Michigan: Detroit News    Obama 49, Romney 42    Obama +7

Michigan: Gravis Marketing    Obama 46, Romney 44    Obama +2

Nevada: Suffolk/KSNV    Obama 47, Romney 45    Obama +2

New Jersey: Philadelphia Inquirer    Obama 51, Romney 40    Obama +11

Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist …

  1. Copperfield

    That NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Ohio showing Obama +6 skews +11 Democrat, up from a +5 Democrat in their October 3 poll in which Obama was shown ahead +8.  Thoughts? 

  2. Mollie Hemingway
    C
    Copperfield: That NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Ohio showing Obama +6 skews +11 Democrat, up from a +5 Democrat in their October 3 poll in which Obama was shown ahead +8.  Thoughts?  · 7 minutes ago

    The funny thing about me posting these each day is that I generally don’t buy into polls. Perhaps it’s the Austrian (economist) in me, but I am highly skeptical of our ability to capture voter sentiment.

    And obviously the polling samples are all over the place. The idea that you’d pick more Dems for your poll sample in the last week strikes me as laughable. However, I haven’t heard their explanation …

  3. Albert Arthur

    Just  +14 for Obama in California? Weak. Shouldn’t that be at least +25?

  4. Albert Arthur
    Mollie Hemingway, Ed.

    Copperfield: That NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Ohio showing Obama +6 skews +11 Democrat, up from a +5 Democrat in their October 3 poll in which Obama was shown ahead +8.  Thoughts?  · 7 minutes ago

    The funny thing about me posting these each day is that I generally don’t buy into polls. Perhaps it’s the Austrian (economist) in me, but I am highly skeptical of our ability to capture voter sentiment.

    And obviously the polling samples are all over the place. The idea that you’d pick more Dems for your poll sample in the last week strikes me as laughable. However, I haven’t heard their explanation … · 1 minute ago

     I keep trying to remind myself that two weeks ago I was complaining bitterly about how the polls were skewed and near meaningless. Now that many polls are pointing towards Romney, are polls any less skewed? No, they’re still skewed, as Copperfield points out. But I sure do love checking the RCP average several times a day now.

  5. swatter

    The  only poll I care about is the one on election day- it counts.

    I refuse to get excited when my guy is down nor do I when he is up in the polls.

    However, I do revel in the incompetence of Obama and his people as it finally comes to the public light what we’ve seen for five or six years.

    But, at the same time, I caution myself enough to worry that Obama will come out swinging in the next two debates in his own way. The results will not be so one-sided. This is far from over.

  6. liberal jim

    There was a clip on Drudge from Suffolk Unv. Research director who said they were not going to pole any more in FL, NC and VA  and have given these states to Romney.  After listening to it I came away thinking that most of the numbers they relied on were pre-debate.   It was a short clip and I have not been able to find more info.  Anybody have any info on this.

  7. Bluenoser
    Albert Arthur: Just  +14 for Obama in California? Weak. Shouldn’t that be at least +25? · 20 minutes ago

    If Romney can crack 40% in California, he just might carry 44 or 45 states.

  8. Edward Smith

    All these Swinging Polls are making me dizzy.  At the track, it pays to watch how the horses are doing mid-race.  But in politics, maybe not so much.

  9. flownover

    Lies, damned lies, and polls.

  10. Albert Arthur
    liberal jim: There was a clip on Drudge from Suffolk Unv. Research director who said they were not going to pole any more in FL, NC and VA  and have given these states to Romney.  After listening to it I came away thinking that most of the numbers they relied on were pre-debate.   It was a short clip and I have not been able to find more info.  Anybody have any info on this. · 46 minutes ago

    The Suffolk guy’s last name is Paleologus. He said this while on Hannity a few days ago (Monday?).

    Today’s Rasmussen has Obama +1. 

  11. Catskill Eric

    Some of the Senate race poll numbers (OH, FL) are disappointing and hopefully wrong.  Without the Senate, Obamacare is here to stay.

  12. AnnaS

    I hope these polls are wrong. Does not look good. Despite being the worst president in history of this country, Obama seems to be winning. Depressing.

  13. Devereaux
    ted trepanier: The  only poll I care about is the one on election day- it counts.

    I refuse to get excited when my guy is down nor do I when he is up in the polls.

    However, I do revel in the incompetence of Obama and his people as it finally comes to the public light what we’ve seen for five or six years.

    But, at the same time, I caution myself enough to worry that Obama will come out swinging in the next two debates in his own way. The results will not be so one-sided. This is far from over. · 2 hours ago

    Much as I understand your reserve, I am convinced that Romney will win, and win big. Just too many signs of it in the REAL world – not the polls. This country frequently acts stupidly – but not all the time. So polls be damned – I just don’t care. I don’t think they are relevant for anything but creating “discussion” for the various shows. Just like no one is courageous enough to come out and say that the unemployment numbers have been “jiggled” – other than Jack Welsh.

  14. flownover

    I am certain the constant drumbeat about the slippage being due to the debate performance is only a red herring . The American people probably don’t care squat for that and just might be appalled at the height and depth of mendacity that the government has attained . They know the press is lying, they saw the Pres,SecState, Press Secy, and the UN Amb all lie about some silly youtube , they recognize the alarming coincidence of dropping unemployment numbers this close to an election,  and they can smell the flopsweat that accompanies cartoon characters to the stage as a handpuppet (  which is a diversion to any child ).

    The polls might be reflecting disgust rather than disappointment , distrust rather than depression , and an awakening rather than the somnambulance of the last four years.

    Lord let it be so.

  15. Albert Arthur

    Romney back down to +.7. 

    RCP-avg-10-11.jpg

  16. Whiskey Sam

    On the Allen-Kaine race, it’s interesting to suddenly see a poll showing it’s tied again, which it was for six months, while the other poll still shows the +7 Kaine number that appeared from nowhere a month ago.  For what it’s worth, both this +1 Kaine poll and Allen’s internal poll show him leading independents by 5 points, and Allen’s internal poll actually has him up +3.  I can buy the race being neck and neck, but that large jump for Kaine has always looked suspect to me.

  17. wmartin

    Weirdly, Rasmussen is now using a D+5 sample.

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