Daily Poll Update: Romney Moves Up

Mitt Romney is in a considerably stronger position in the polls than he was last week at this time. Here’s the latest:

Politico/GWU/Battleground    Obama 49, Romney 48    Obama +1

Gallup Tracking    Obama 47, Romney 47    Tie

Rasmussen Tracking    Obama 48, Romney 48    Tie

Colorado: Rasmussen Reports    Obama 49, Romney 48    Obama +1

Virginia: PPP (D)    Obama 50, Romney 47    Obama +3

Iowa: Rasmussen Reports    Obama 49, Romney 47    Obam…

  1. Freesmith

    I have not been following this race or heard much about it in the media I peruse, so can somebody please tell me what the Hell is the matter with George Allen?

    Why is he running behind Romney in a race that was once considered no worse than a toss-up for the GOP?

  2. Jager

    This is kind of a big deal in the Gallup numbers. A challenger always gets a small bounce after the first debate. Romney got a 5 point bounce. Gallup was Obama +5 before the debate. This could actually be the event that could start to swing the election to Romney. A five point move in basically 4 days is a real change.

  3. Dave

    Now that Romney is surging, I believe the polls are completely fair and accurate.  Remember all that stuff we were up in arms about with the  polling in late September?  Never mind…

  4. Jager

    The polling could still stink, It is even better if the polls are over sampling  Democrats and still showing a Romney surge.  

  5. Lucy Pevensie

    Looks good, but is better.  Check out this on that Politico/GWU/Battlegroud poll. Lots of good news hiding under that +1 Obama number, but the best bit is this:

    This poll was in the field last Monday through Thursday, but about 85 percent of the calls were made before the debate on Wednesday night. The final night of tracking was good for Romney, but it’s not a big enough sample to report. So this does not reflect any momentum Romney might get from his performance in Denver. [Emphasis ever-so-sweetly added]

  6. Marley

    Personally I have held the same opinion regarding polls for the better part of five months now.  Many people who are being polled are indicating they will vote Obama in order not to appear racist or are simply nervous about recrimination even from a disembodied voice on the phone but when they enter the voting booth they will be pulling the lever (yes I know it’s an outdated visual :-) ) for Mitt Romney.  Hopefully I am not wrong.

  7. TheoCon

    An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

  8. Byron Horatio

    I find this notion of polled voters not wanting to “appear racist” over the phone to be the most ludicrous fantasy for Republicans. On what evidence? Surge or not, the question ultimately to be answered by voters will be whether they willingly vote for a ticket that wishes to reduce their benefits and cut the welfare state. This isn’t 1980.

  9. Jager
    Byron Horatio: I find this notion of polled voters not wanting to “appear racist” over the phone to be the most ludicrous fantasy for Republicans

    I think this may be right. Psychology studies say that you are more likely to honest with an unknown person over the phone, than with someone you are physically face to face with.

  10. The King Prawn

    That it’s still even possible for Obama to win reelection makes me weep for my nation.

  11. Whiskey Sam
    Freesmith: I have not been following this race or heard much about it in the media I peruse, so can somebody please tell me what the Hell is the matter with George Allen?

    Why is he running behind Romney in a race that was once considered no worse than a toss-up for the GOP? · 51 minutes ago

    I’ve been questioning those numbers since they started in mid-September and have yet to see an explanation for them.  That race was 45-45 for six months, then, with nothing happening in that race, Kaine suddenly has a 6-9% lead in every poll for the last month.  And that is despite Romney gaining on Obama in VA.  Something doesn’t add up.

  12. David Williamson
    The King Prawn: That it’s still even possible for Obama to win reelection makes me weep for my nation. 

    Indeed so – but all is not lost – Ryan/Daffy Duck on Thursday.

    Then two terms of Romney, two of Ryan, and two of Rubio –  the American Dream lives on until the next Carter or Obama, when the young, who will have never heard of the previous Carter or Obama, repeat the same mistake.

    Unless the education system improves.

  13. Mark Wilson
    Jager

    Byron Horatio: I find this notion of polled voters not wanting to “appear racist” over the phone to be the most ludicrous fantasy for Republicans

    I think this may be right. Psychology studies say that you are more likely to honest with an unknown person over the phone, than with someone you are physically face to face with. · 26 minutes ago

    See the Bradley Effect.

  14. Mark Wilson
    Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:

    Politico/GWU/Battleground    Obama 49, Romney 48    Obama +1

    Gallup Tracking    Obama 47, Romney 47    Tie

    Rasmussen Tracking    Obama 48, Romney 48    Tie

    Colorado: Rasmussen Reports    Obama 49, Romney 48    Obama +1

    Virginia: PPP (D)    Obama 50, Romney 47    Obama +3

    Iowa: Rasmussen Reports    Obama 49, Romney 47    Obama +2

    Obama is not leading anymore.  A 3 point change in a poll with 3 points margin of error is nothing.  It’s noise.  The margin of error is how much the answer could vary just by rerunning the same poll with a different random set of people to call.

    So any poll within the margin of error, including all the polls listed above, just tells you “it’s so close we can’t determine who’s ahead”.  I think we take that as good news, at this point.

  15. liberal jim

    One day the poles are fixed and they should be ignored.  The next day they show movement for Romney and should be cheered.   Not that is a consistent position.  This is truly a marvelous country where people can make a living writing stuff like this and still be considered a journalist.

  16. Lucy Pevensie
    liberal jim: One day the poles are fixed and they should be ignored.  The next day they show movement for Romney and should be cheered.   Not that is a consistent position.  This is truly a marvelous country where people can make a living writing stuff like this and still be considered a journalist. · 5 minutes ago

    Actually, it’s a perfectly consistent position: the polls may be slanted toward the Democrats but move towards the Republicans.  In other words, they are now reporting a statistical dead heat, when a true accounting might show a huge Romney advantage; perhaps, before, there was a real dead heat when the polls were reporting an Obama advantage.

  17. EThompson
    Jager

    Byron Horatio: I find this notion of polled voters not wanting to “appear racist” over the phone to be the most ludicrous fantasy for Republicans

    I think this may be right. Psychology studies say that you are more likely to honest with an unknown person over the phone, than with someone you are physically face to face with.

    Either over the phone or in person, I still fear there may be beaucoup Obama supporters ashamed to ‘fess up!

    (As an aside, pls look below at the picture on Adam Freeman’s post.) Would Romney please stop allowing BHO to use that passive-aggressive “grip on the arm?” (Hillary hated it and for once, I don’t blame her.)

    Obama shouldn’t be allowed to get away with it and it wouldn’t hurt in the polls if Romney reciprocated with a similar “stunt.”

  18. Pilli

    The one bright spot in Mollie’s post:

    Florida Senate: WeAskAmerica    Nelson 44, Mack 44    Tie

    Sen. Nelson has election machinery in Florida that is so ingrained that it makes penicillin mold blush.  That Connie Mack IV (who ain’t near as good as his dad, or grand-dad, or great-grand-dad) has tied Nelson speaks volumes about where FL really is in politics.

    BTW, if Mack wins, 2 things will happen:

    1) Nelson will sue because Mack didn’t use his real name in the filing papers…McGillacuddy.

    2) He’ll be a lousy senator.  His character is almost as bad as Nelson’s and Nelson is a lousy senator.

  19. EThompson
    Pilli:

    BTW, if Mack wins, 2 things will happen:

    2) He’ll be a lousy senator.  

    You highly underestimate the power and the  influence of our fabulous junior Senator. He’ll scare Mack onto the straight and narrow.

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