Daily Poll Update: Momentum

In his Morning Jolt newsletter, National Review’s Jim Geraghty says the word of the week in polling is “momentum.” It will be interesting to see what happens in the days to come. Here are the latest polls.

General Election:

(Rasmussen Tracking)    Romney 48, Obama 48    Tie

(Gallup Tracking)    Romney 52, Obama 45    Romney +7

(IBD/TIPP Tracking)    Romney 46, Obama 46    Tie

Presidential Race by Sta…

  1. EJHill

    If those state polls are accurate, Obama cruises to an EC win. Time to start drinking again.

  2. Edward Smith

    So, New York State is the Rotten Borough I think it is?

  3. Spin

    Inslee only by 1 point now…man, that guy is such a dope.  And I mean dope.  Sorry, but that’s not me being mean or anything…it’s just stating a fact.  

  4. Edward Smith

    Tommy Thompson needs to lock up his son in a cabin in the woods for a few weeks.

  5. Mel Foil

    I have to get out of Minnesota. It’s just too embarrassing to live here.

  6. wmartin

    Yeah, its looking pretty bad according to the state polls now. And that Gallup poll isn’t  really the good news I thought it was yesterday. Romney is leading by a mammoth 22 points in the south, losing every other region.  My guess is we come close in a few battlegrounds, but don’t actually win enough of them to take it.

  7. David Williamson

    Breaking news – Ricochet reverts to its customary pessimism.

  8. Doc

    I haven’t even heard of some of the polling outfits listed.  Most of the others are NBC/Wash Post, PPP, etc.  Are the samples Dem +8, +9, +10?  Let’s not get crazy.  The momentum is with Romney.  He is going to pull this out.

  9. Cuban Mike
    David Williamson: Breaking news – Ricochet reverts to its customary pessimism. · 8 minutes ago

    The bigotry of lowered expectations strikes again. I was feeling great till I read here.   My God people, BUCK UP!   If it looks bad, get moving!  If it looks good, don’t stop moving!
  10. Richard Fulmer

    Looks like four more years of status quo - Dems hold the White House and the Senate, GOP keeps the House.  We need to change this picture or we’re in for four more years of decline.

  11. Shane McGuire

    Man, are you people downers! Which of the states that Romney’s losing in the above polls did you expect him to carry? I’m not getting down about polls having R down in Cal, Col, Wisc, Mich, Minn, or Iowa. It’s all Ohio, and always has been. Look for those polls. We win there, we’re in, we lose, we’re out.

  12. Copperfield

    Still a tight race, though I wish Romney’s momentum were translating more broadly into places like Iowa and New Hampshire.  The President seems to have blunted the Governor’s momentum in some of those more remote states.  That Iowa NBC/WSJ/Marist is showing Obama ahead outside the margin of error and only stampling LV D+2 (D: 33, R: 31) and when leaners are added it’s LV D+3 (D: 45, R: 42). 

    However, a stronger showing in Florida and Virginia counter this trend and are, in the end, much more important.  The worry then becomes Ohio where Bruce Springsteen and Bill Clinton were stumping for the President yesterday.  The RCP average currently shows Obama +2.4 (but that includes an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll that showed Obama +6 with a D+11 sample), but Rasmussen’s 10/17 poll shows Obama +1 in Ohio.  The question remains whether the intensity of those four or five conservative southern OH counties will be able to counter the overwhelming advantage Democrats hold in northeastern OH. 

    I once more make an intellectual appeal to those good people of the Buckeye State:

    C’mon Ohio… Really?!

  13. James Of England
    Shane McGuire: Man, are you people downers! Which of the states that Romney’s losing in the above polls did you expect him to carry? I’m not getting down about polls having R down in Cal, Col, Wisc, Mich, Minn, or Iowa. It’s all Ohio, and always has been. Look for those polls. We win there, we’re in, we lose, we’re out.

    Not true. If Obama wins these states (and Nevada and New Hampshire, which Obama has also been leading in), winning Ohio would bring us to a 266-272 defeat. Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada are all generally appearing to be closer races than Ohio, and they would add up to a Romney Presidency even without Ohio.  These states matter.

    There are a ton of close races which will be decided by turnout, but the strength of our volunteering efforts. Not just the swing states we want to flip (add Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to the above list as potential game changers, with or without Ohio), but Florida and Virginia are close, too. North Carolina might be within the margin of considerable fraud. We can win this, but we need/ want more than Ohio.

  14. R. Craigen

    I think the momentum’s with Romney.  I notice that Rasmussen has adjusted its EC numbers and has the two candidates in a dead heat — although among the remaining states in play, Obama still has thin leads in most.  This is a huge movement from a couple of weeks ago when Romney was at 180 and Obama at 237.  Give it another week.

    The most unwatched part of this election is the congressional one.  Now, the Rs may have it wrapped up by sheer number of seats not in play, but the approval numbers should be heeded:  2 years ago the Rs had a huge advantage over the Ds but today they have almost identical approval numbers.  If this is not addressed you may see an unforeseen swing to Democrat control in 2014.  And the wrong momentum this year could be very dispiriting.

    I don’t see it addressed anywhere explicitly but it looks to me as if the Rs need 13 of the seats up for election to get control.  With current numbers it looks like only 11.  It’s probably worth picking the two most likely and pouring a lot of resources into a final push for them.

  15. Cuban Mike
    R. Craigen:  Now, the Rs may have it wrapped up by sheer number of seats not in play, but the approval numbers should be heeded:  2 years ago the Rs had a huge advantage over the Ds but today they have almost identical approval numbers.  If this is not addressed you may see an unforeseen swing to Democrat control in 2014. 

    Courtesy of Mr. Boehner.

  16. AnnaS

    So I come here and hear we are losing?

  17. TucsonSean

    these are largely BS polls.  Marist is a joke, survey USA uses an intentioanlly skewed sample, and PPP is a known democrat oprgan with a skewed sample and a suspect methodology.  These three polls are propaganda.

  18. Mollie Hemingway
    C

    Guys, the “momentum” is with Romney. So if you want to throw yourselves overboard, keep that in mind.

  19. john marzan

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

    Daily Swing State Tracking Poll

    Swing State Tracking: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

    In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% of the vote to President Obama’s 47%.  One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

    Romney’s now been slightly ahead for two days in a row after Obama reached the 50% mark again earlier in the week. Because this survey is conducted on a rolling seven-day basis, most of the responses in the latest survey still come from before the second presidential debate Tuesday night. Sunday’s update will be the first in which the majority of the responses follow the most recent debate.

    In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

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