Daily Poll Update: GOP Voters Are Hard To Find

I’m reading lots of chatter about how few Republicans were included in the Washington Post poll below. I guess it included only 26% Republicans to 33% Democrats in its sample. In addition to being a fairly significant skew in favor of Democrats, that would mean that the poll developers think that the percentage of people who vote this year wi…

  1. The King Prawn

    The polling outfits are starting to remind me of a wooden boat rocked by the waves until the slats gets loose and water is seeping in between the seams.

  2. Cuban Mike
    I’m all for the continual inflation of the liberal bubble.    This begs the question, do they believe their own numbers?  Do they get any solace from seeing wonderful poll numbers despite obviously cooking the numbers?  Does the left suffer from collective willful delusion?  It is a very scary thought.
  3. The King Prawn
    Cuban Mike: I’m all for the continual inflation of the liberal bubble.    This begs the question, do they believe their own numbers?  Do they get any solace from seeing wonderful poll numbers despite obviously cooking the numbers?  Does the left suffer from collective willful delusion?  It is a very scary thought. · 2 minutes ago

    The scarier thought is what happens when their bubble bursts. To be on the left is to have at best a tenuous relationship with reality. Being forced into a long term committed relationship with it could cause many of them to snap.

  4. katievs
    Cuban Mike: Does the left suffer from collective willful delusion?  It is a very scary thought. 

    I think there are very many on the left who think that there’s no such thing as reality.  There are only competing narratives.  Their aim is to shape perceptions regardless.  They think we’re doing that too.

  5. David Nordmark

    These are excellent points. I don’t see how skewing polls Washington Post style helps Obama. In my mind it simply causes conservatives to re-double their efforts while lefties relax. King Prawn makes an excellent point. When reality destroys the media’s/lefts construction, what will the left’s reaction be? Staring into my crystal ball I can already see the headlines -”Racism, Bradley effect, racism …”

  6. Schrodinger

    This site tries to look at the race using different party ID numbers.

    http://electionprojection.com/blog/

    If the electorate looks like 2008, BO wins. If the electorate looks like 2004 Romney wins.

     

     

    Current Electoral Votes*: 2008 Turnout: 2004 Turnout: Average (’04 & ’08) Turnout:
    Obama 

    294 294 223 266
    Romney 

    244 244 315 272
    Margin

     Obama +50 Obama +50 Romney +92 Romney +6

     

     

  7. Valiuth
    David Nordmark: These are excellent points. I don’t see how skewing polls Washington Post style helps Obama. In my mind it simply causes conservatives to re-double their efforts while lefties relax. King Prawn makes an excellent point. When reality destroys the media’s/lefts construction, what will the left’s reaction be? Staring into my crystal ball I can already see the headlines -”Racism, Bradley effect, racism …” · 4 minutes ago

    If Romney wins PA they will claim the voter ID law suppressed the vote. I am sure the most unscrupulous elements will also go about rabble rousing the black community.  Hyper feminists will will come out with signs like “Keep your Mitts of my Bush”. Harry Reid will declare his intentions to make Romney a “one term president” and will be hailed as principled. MSNBC will  hire professional mourners to wail and beat their chests in the background for a full month. 

    On election night if Romney wins. Chris Mathews will tare his shirt and vow to not shave or cut his hair until Obama is returned to office. George Cloony will speak for 45 minutes at the Oscars about what a martyr Obama has been. 

  8. Vectorman

    I had a call recently from a “national poling organization.”  Since they didn’t say who they were, I hung up.  I think many are tired of push polls, and this also skews the results.

  9. Spin

    All of the liberals I know think that is election is a joke.  They smirk at the idea that it will even be close.  After the first presidential debate they said “yeah, Mitt really needed that win, he’s looked so horrible the past few months.”  My take:  yes, they believe their numbers, and if they lose, they won’t be able to bring themselves to accept that it’s because of Obama’s record.  I expect OWS style protests, maybe even rioting.  I’m serious.

  10. Full Size Tabby

    Regarding the headline, and related to the comment from Vectorman: Is it possible GOP voters truly are “harder to find”? Are Republicans more likely to unreachable because they are be out running a business, performing a job, taking children hither and yon, or going to church or community functions. Or might Republicans be more likely to refuse  to give a pollster 10 minutes of time because the voter would prefer to do something else with that time?

  11. KC Mulville

    What strikes me is how internally self-defeating it is to skew the numbers unrealistically. The polls only have one thing to sell, and that’s credibility.

    If you skew the numbers to indicate a result, and the real result doesn’t turn out that way, you’ve undermined your own credibility. 

    After this election, I think the body politic needs to seriously reconsider the value of polls, and how we use them. Political polls aren’t like a baseball scoreboard, which displays the results of each inning as we move along. In baseball, each inning has a definite result that contributes to the total. But a presidential vote is a one-play game. There is no halftime, or seventh-inning stretch. It’s all a one-time vote, and even with early voting, they only count it and reveal it once. 

    I think the polls give the illusion that the game is two years long, and they show how each side is doing. The game is really only one day. 

    Only the people who make money from a “process” prop up the illusion that it’s a two year long process.

  12. Copperfield

    It looks like that ABC News/Wash Post poll is 35-26 D-R, or +9

    There are elements of both push and peurility in the poll. 

    From the Poll:

    17. As you may know, the unemployment rate has moved below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. How much credit, if any, do you think Obama deserves for this – a lot of credit, some, a little or none at all?  (A: 52% A lot or some.)

    18. Do you think Obama does more to favor the (middle class) or more to favor the (wealthy)? (A: Obama- 68% to 16% Middle Class / Romney- 57% to 33% wealthy.)

    20. Do you think Romney has or has not done enough to provide details about the policies he would pursue as president?  (A: Romney- 63% not enough / Obama- 54% not enough.) 

    29. Who would you rather have babysit your children, (Obama) or (Romney)? 

    30. If you ran a company, who would you rather have as an employee, (Obama) or (Romney)?

    31. Who do you think is more likely to go bungee-jumping, (Obama) or (Romney)?

    This Ohio poll is worrying: +4 D sample, +5 Obama result.

    C’mon Ohio, Really?! 

  13. Astonishing
    katievs  . . . . many on the left who think that there’s no such thing as reality . . . only competing narratives.  . . .

    Relativism teaches there is no truth, only opinion.

    So of course they don’t believe in reality, as such, but believe only in competing opinions about reality. No one can claim any opinion is superior to  another, because that would be “judgmental.” To be judgmental is to be intolerant.

    But in reality, they enforce these relativist principles only against conservatives. One is allowed to be judgmental against and intolerant of conservative opinions. One is required be so.

    The more sophisticated of them might even acknowledge privately that, according to their relativist principles, even their own opinions can have no “real” claim to superiority. Consequently, for these sophisticates of truthlessness, everything is about power–the power to enforce one’s opinions upon others. For these sophisticates–because there is no truth, no good, no evil, no right, no wrong, but only power–any means is acceptable to defeat opposing opinion. In a world without truth, power is the only thing. Theirs is the deepest possible cynicism. They promote tolerance only as a shield for their utter  intolerance. Obama believes this.

  14. Cutlass

    Today’s RealClear average has Romney losing about 1% over the weekend. 

    I’m still worried about the steady 49% approval rating Obama has maintained for a while now. You have to assume anyone who approves of Obama’s performance is going to vote for him. 

  15. Lucy Pevensie
    Cutlass: Today’s RealClear average has Romney losing about 1% over the weekend. 

    I’m still worried about the steady 49% approval rating Obama has maintained for a while now. You have to assume anyone who approves of Obama’s performance is going to vote for him.  · 35 minutes ago

    Yeah, he lost 1% because of the WaPo poll with the 26% Republican sample. Junk polling. And did you see how Gallup, quietly, shifted how it was polling job approval a few days ago, with a suddenly much higher percentage of blacks included.  And yet even with that they can’t get him above 49%.  Relax. 

  16. Sisyphus
    Lucy Pevensie

    Cutlass: Today’s RealClear average has Romney losing about 1% over the weekend. 

    I’m still worried about the steady 49% approval rating Obama has maintained for a while now. You have to assume anyone who approves of Obama’s performance is going to vote for him.  · 35 minutes ago

    Yeah, he lost 1% because of the WaPo poll with the 26% Republican sample. Junk polling. And did you see how Gallup, quietly, shifted how it was polling job approval a few days ago, with a suddenly much higher percentage of blacks included.  And yet even with that they can’t get him above 49%.  Relax.  · 3 hours ago

    I have children, and the stakes are too high. All of this mis-polling could just as easily be preparing public opinion for the largest scale national voter fraud spree ever seen. Of course, that would be big. I think if they knew something like that was coming, someone would have leaked by now. (Say, what’s on the rest of that James O’Keefe footage?)

  17. Lake Mattamuskeet

    I’m with Vectorman, except I never take a poll whether or not I know who the polling agency is. In our mixed R/D house, we also never take calls from any politician pushing themselves upon us – no phone call is going to influence our vote. If we see that one of these entities (polls or pols) is calling us, as soon as the phone stops ringing we block that number. The joys of caller ID. I would think that, since most polls are conducted by mainstream media outfits and since conservatives have skeptism about the impartiality of those outfits, the non-respondents are heavily weighted toward our side.

    Now, does that give the left a false confidence or depress our side?

  18. Copperfield
    KC Mulville: If you skew the numbers to indicate a result, and the real result doesn’t turn out that way, you’ve undermined your own credibility. 

    Well, not necessarily.  From Rasmussen:

    2008–Barack Obama won 53%-46%, and our final poll showed him winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. While many other firms showed high volatility and bounced around from day to day, our numbers remained steady. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama attracting more than 50% of the vote and holding a stable, solid lead. 

    Notice the comparison is their final poll to the final result.  The rest is color commentary.  If the pollsters are able to push poll and really affect results, their polls become self-fulfilling prophecies.  They can then sell their final poll vs. the election result and color the commentary to state some “above 50%” generalization as Rasmussen states above.  Whether Obama wins with 50.1% or 55%, their commentary is still right and they only need adjust their methodology in the final poll or two. 

Want to comment on stories like these? Become a member today!

You'll have access to:

  • All Ricochet articles, posts and podcasts.
  • The conversation amongst our members.
  • The opportunity share your Ricochet experiences.

Join Today!

Already a Member? Sign In