Daily Poll Update: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania Swing Again?

Not great polls for Romney today but in order to achieve the same results that CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac did, you have to assume a lower Republican turnout this year than in 2008. That seems wishful thinking on their part, but I’m not a pollster.

Presidential Race by State:

Florida: (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)    Romney 47, Obama 48    Obama +1

Massachusetts: (Rasmussen Reports)    Obama 59, Romney 40    Obama +19

Michigan: (Detroit News)    …

  1. Casey

    Nice to see you back, Mrs. Hemingway.  Can you believe Troy insisted that we chew gum and play seven up rather than read our polls?

    EddieHaskell.jpg

  2. jetstream

    Troy also notified everyone that you were swimming the flood waters with a knife in your teeth … we’ve been waiting for the pictorial …

  3. Will Collier

    Look at the party ID swings in those polls, Mollie.  They’re projecting even higher “D” turnout than they had in 2008, which is only going to happen in Fantasyland.

    That Quinnipiac poll is pure garbage.

  4. RightinChicago

    The CBS/NYT/Quinnipac polls on OH/FL/VA have a respective D+8, D+7, D+8 sample and expect lower Repub turnout than 2008.  Doesn’t make much sense when Repub enthusiasm is +14, +16, +7 over Dems in those states, according to their own poll.  This poll is worthless in my book.  Read about it over at HotAir:

    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/31/final-cbsnytq-polls-in-oh-fl-va-show-obama-up/

     I have to go with Rasmussen on these states.  He is consistent and has a better record, of late, than any other pollster.  He had Romney+2 at 50% two days ago in Ohio.  Now Quinnipac has Obama+5.  Puh-leeze!!!

    Rasmussen Swing State Poll shows that Romney has now led for 12 straight days with margins of four to six points most of that time.

  5. Mollie Hemingway
    C
    Casey: Nice to see you back, Mrs. Hemingway.  Can you believe Troy insisted that we chew gum and play seven up rather than read our polls? · 36 minutes ago

    Oh he did? Well, then, you can do that this morning before we get to the polls, too. Thanks for sharing, Casey!

  6. Mollie Hemingway
    C
    jetstream: Troy also notified everyone that you were swimming the flood waters with a knife in your teeth … we’ve been waiting for the pictorial … · 32 minutes ago

    It came close to that but we avoided the need for such survival techniques thus far!

  7. Mollie Hemingway
    C
    Will Collier: Look at the party ID swings in those polls, Mollie.  They’re projecting even higher “D” turnout than they had in 2008, which is only going to happen in Fantasyland.

    That Quinnipiac poll is pure garbage. · 25 minutes ago

    I’m kind of skeptical of all polls, but I am really curious to compare these predictions with actual results next week.

  8. wmartin

    Big potential trouble in Florida? It’s only Palm Beach County, but I don’t like reading this six days out.

  9. katievs

    I wish I didn’t feel so nervous about FL.

  10. Al French

    Can even deep blue Oregon be in play? 

    Down from +17 in 2008 to +5 or 6 now (margin of error 5).

    http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/10/oregonian_poll_obama_leads_rom.html

  11. RightinChicago
    wmartin: Big potential trouble in Florida? It’s only Palm Beach County, but I don’t like reading this six days out. · 24 minutes ago

    Edited 20 minutes ago

    A leaked memo that is worried about the local elections?  Is this the best doomsaying you can do wmartin?  Come now, surely you have something far more alarming and bleak with which to darken our day.

  12. wmartin
    RightinChicago

    wmartin: Big potential trouble in Florida? It’s only Palm Beach County, but I don’t like reading this six days out. · 24 minutes ago

    Edited 20 minutes ago

    A leaked memo that is worried about the local elections?  Is this the best doomsaying you can do wmartin?  Come now, surely you have something far more alarming and bleak with which to darken our day. · 0 minutes ago

    No, I have some good news. Rasmussen released party id for October at R+1. Combine that with Gallup having an October D+0.2 advantage and we are well set on Tuesday (assuming that the storm, Chris Christie and plummeting gas prices don’t hurt).

  13. RightinChicago
    wmartin

    RightinChicago

    wmartin: Big potential trouble in Florida? It’s only Palm Beach County, but I don’t like reading this six days out. · 24 minutes ago

    Edited 20 minutes ago

    A leaked memo that is worried about the local elections?  Is this the best doomsaying you can do wmartin?  Come now, surely you have something far more alarming and bleak with which to darken our day. · 0 minutes ago

    No, I have some good news. Rasmussen released party id for October at R+1. Combine that with Gallup having an October D+0.2 advantage and we are well set on Tuesday (assuming that the storm, Chris Christie and plummeting gas prices don’t hurt). · 0 minutes ago

    See, that didn’t hurt did it?  Be of good cheer

  14. James Of England
    wmartin: Big potential trouble in Florida? It’s only Palm Beach County, but I don’t like reading this six days out. · 1 hour ago

    Edited 59 minutes ago

    “Big” seems like a strong word. It’s a: an adviser, not a member of b: a county level party organization c: claiming that the Presidential election is OK, but that some of the local races may be in trouble.

    I tell yah, if the Presidential election goes fine, but we suffer the horror of some unfortunate local choices in West Palm Beach, it’s not going to the be Palm Beach locals that dominate my emotions coming out of the elections.

  15. RightinChicago
    wmartin: Big potential trouble in Florida? It’s only Palm Beach County, but I don’t like reading this six days out. · 1 hour ago

    Edited 1 hour ago

    Here’s some good news about early voting in Florida, for our side. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/31/Dem-Early-Vote-Lead-Down-In-FL

    From that story

    But a Republican yesterday noted that at this point in 2008, Democrats held a 134,774-vote lead in Florida. As of yesterday. Democrats led by less than 41,000 – a nearly 70 percent drop.

    The Obama campaign does not dispute those numbers.

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