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Buckeyes Go for Romney

From Ricochet friend and conservative entrepreneur Ed Kinsey, who has been spending time in his homestate of Ohio, comes this mailer, from the local Catholic churches:

It’s never a good idea to pick a fight with Catholics, especially with 22 days to go before an election.  Especially in Ohio.

And then this, from Zogby and Newsmax:

The crucial independent vote in Ohio is warming up to Republican candidate Mitt Romney and turning a cold shoulder to President Barack Obama, according to cumulative data trends from NewsmaxZogby polling. When independents were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, the percentage of likely voters in Romney’s favor has steadily climbed over the three installments of the polling period: In the first round, 31 percent said they’d vote for Romney; in the second round, Romney scored much higher with 35 percent; and in the third and final round, independents weighed heavily in Romney’s favor with 37 percent of the independent vote. On the other hand, Obama’s chances with Ohio independent voters declined, indicating a growing dissatisfaction with the president among independents. In the first round of polling data, he garnered 42 percent of the vote. In the second round of data he fell off a percentage point with 41 percent of the vote. In the final tally, his fall was more pronounced, down to 39 percent of the vote.

It’s hard to tell, of course, how this will all break in November.  I mean, the trouble with Catholics isn’t a new issue for Obama.  But I’m getting the sense that it’s all adding up for him, all of the slights and mistakes and wrong turns, they’re all being tallied up now, and the balance sheet is starting to look bad.  And bankrupt.

  1. katievs

    I think if Catholics generally were better informed about what the Obama administration has done and is doing to the Church, they would be horrified.

    Obamacare is the de facto establishment of religion, viz. the religion of secularism.  Catholics will be tolerated, but taxed, fined and marginalized. They will be able to maintain their institutions only if they cease being faithful to their identity and mission.

    The bishops are in a tricky position.  If they speak too forcefully, they are threatened with law suits and the loss of their tax exempt status, which in turn threatens their schools and ministries.

    We lay people really need to get in gear in these final days, and make sure the truth is known.

    It helps–in terms of persuading Catholics who have always thought the Democrats were “for the little guy”–that not only are they rabidly pro-abortion and pro-gay-marriage, they have raided Medicare by 700 billion.

  2. Mel Foil

    We can be Catholic on Sunday, as long as we do it in a way that nobody can tell that we’re Catholic the rest of the week. Sadly, for too many people (that call themselves Catholic) they’re already there. They didn’t need the White House to give them the push.

  3. skipsul

    What’s missing from this calculus are the Youngstown, Greater Wheeling, and Toledo Union Catholic blocks.  This old and very corrupt Dem territory, reflexively voting Demo for generations.  It is the core base of folks like Sherrod Brown, and Obama paid for it all with Auto Bailouts. 

    The coal mining districts may be anti Obama, but they are shrinking in population, a strategy which is short term pain for the Dems in favor of long term gain in removing a blue collar group over whom they feel embarassment.

    Ohio is still VERY pro-union, and thus is still irritated and agitated over last year’s SB5.  

    The Catholics here are riled up for sure, but it’s the younger growing populations that lean Repub, not the older industrial ones.

    The ground here in Ohio may be more favorable than earlier, but it’s no lock.

  4. Hang On

    Still a problem though. 39 is greater than 37.

  5. BlueAnt

    I’ve been saying it since 2004, and I’ll keep saying it until the guy goes away:

    Never trust a Zogby poll.  Never.  Even when it tells you news you like to hear.

    It is amazing how well polling averages like Real Clear Politics and such suddenly start tracking reality much better, when you remove Zogby results from their data set.  Go ahead and try it, going back to 2004, and marvel at how the polling data suddenly seems less wild, with fewer mysterious swings, and less contradictory signals.

  6. David Williamson

    Catholics, miners, Jews, pensioners, students, bitter-clingers, bankers – they all walk into a bar and order Chicken Fingers that have come home to roost, and Blue Moon beers – like that policeman who acted stupidly.

    BTW, Rob – don’t forget the post-election party is on you, when Mr Romney wins.

  7. Valiuth

    Excellent! I posted a while back about the early voting in Ohio (specifically absentee ballot requests). The indications are that unlike 2008 registered democrats no longer have a large advantage over republicans. The early numbers seem to indicate that most likely Obama will not get the same level of support especially in the counties that encompass Cleveland and Columbus that he did in 2008.

    I’m getting real nervous here Mr. Long. I like you have been a great pessimist about this whole affair, and I’m starting to believe we can do this. That thought scares me! 

    Here in Chicago I have noticed that there seem to be less Obama Biden signs up throughout Hyde Park. In 2008 I also had friends that I know went out to campaign for him in Indiana. This year, nothing. They still support him, but the fire is gone. 

  8. Brian McMenomy

    The best line by Paul Ryan (that virtually no one heard or commented on) was (paraphrasing): If that’s the case, why have the bishops & other Catholic organizations sued the Administration 70 (or 90 or 5000) times? 

    I can’t help but think that a small but significant number of Catholics that otherwise would have voted Democrat out of mere reflex are thinking that Obama is a bridge too far.  Obama hasn’t gained traction in visible minority communities, and if he loses the Catholic vote, he’s a professor at the Univ. of Chicago by January 21st. 

    Lay Catholics may not want their hierarchy to tell them how to vote, but I think they like the idea that the hierarchy has to do what the state tells them to even less.  You’re exactly right; the offenses against Catholicism continue to mount, even as we Evangelicals line up alongside Catholics to say “their religious freedom is my religious freedom”.  That fact cannot help but have electoral consequences.

  9. Virshu
    Valiuth: I’m getting real nervous here Mr. Long. I like you have been a great pessimist about this whole affair, and I’m starting to believe we can do this. That thought scares me! 

    Edited 9 minutes ago

    In my family I am “Paul Rahe” optimist, and my wife is “Rob Long” pessimist (note, that is much easier to be an pessimist in Los Angeles). On a scale from 1 to 10 her needle moved from 2 to 3… It’s a big step indeed! :)

  10. Cornelius Julius Sebastian

    In hoc signo vinces!

  11. dogsbody

    Integration is a powerful tool in math and campaigns.  I hope all these things sum up to victory in November.  Byron York has more encouraging words at the Examiner.

  12. KC Mulville

    If you equate “social justice” with government spending, then you might think that Obama and Biden are living up to Catholic principles.

    But then again, if you think that social justice = how much you spend, well, you’re too stupid to live. 

  13. Donald Todd

    katievs:  Obamacare is the de facto establishment of religion, viz. the religion of secularism.

    Actually we are facing the religion of liberalism, which is in competition with religions such as Catholicism and Lutheranism.  (Re the Lutheranism, the Obama administration lost a court fight in the Supreme Court over who the Lutherans could be mandated to hire.)

    In the past, liberalism did not actively fight the churches.  Now that it has its redeemer present, it is ready to do battle with the non-liberal religions.  

    For those of you whose Latin is challenged, CJS wrote “in this sign you will conquer!”  It is the banner carried by Constantine.