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Announcing Ricochet’s 2014 Midterm Elections Pool!
We’re a week away from Election Day and that means that it’s time to put yourself on the line with midterm predictions. For this year’s elections, we invite you to leave your comments predicting (A) how many seats Republicans will end up with in the Senate and (B) which specific states the GOP will win (and possibly lose, if you’re feeling bearish about the likes of Georgia, Kansas, or Kentucky). Whoever comes closest will be the recipient of a brand new Ricochet tote bag (or, if you’ve already received a tote bag as part of your Reagan membership, a gift of comparable value).
Feel free to leave House and gubernatorial predictions as well, but the Senate races will be the sole standard for winning the contest. And, Ricochet contributors, we want to hear from you too — but no swag for you. We’ve heard the stories about John Yoo selling Ricochet coffee mugs out a van in Oakland. Leave your predictions below.
Published in General
Republicans go +9. They take all the close ones including North Carolina and Kansas.
I wish I could say they were going to take New Hampshire, but I’m going out on a limb for North Carolina already. This is an optimistic forecast. Alaska is a little up in the air due to polling being so difficult. Georgia and Louisiana are safe due to runoffs. I won’t be completely shocked if we lose Kansas because that would be typical. I’m worried about the governor.
Republicans hold all their current seats (Georgia after a runoff) and win West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana (after a runoff), Alaska, Iowa, and Colorado.
Tom wins in PA.
The Republican Party gains 10 seats in the Senate. The specific pickups will be in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia.
Reps take 7 – WVa, Montana, SD, Ark, CO, AK, LA (runoff). We hold KY, and GA in a drawn-out runoff.
But my heart is with Mike LR. And why not New Mexico!
Late input: I see from DavidL that I should have said that we gain Iowa and lose Kansas.
The GOP nets 7 seats to take control of the Senate:
Gains – Montana, Alaska, W.Virginia, S.Dakota, Iowa, Colorado, Louisiana, Arkansas
Loses – Kansas
We keep Georgia and Kentucky, and N.Hampshire and N.Carolina will be close but not quite enough to get over the top.
Prediction #1: I will be up far too late because the Wisconsin governor’s race will be too close to call until an absurd hour, if it doesn’t go to a recount.
Prediction #2: Senate Republicans +7. They win South Dakota, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Alaska. They win three out of four of Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, and Georgia. Georgia will go to a run-off, and maybe Louisiana too.
The Democrats keep their reasonably safe seats like New Mexico and Virginia, and hang on in New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Observation: There’s too much red territory still in play. We have lots of eggs, but too many ways to break them to start counting chickens yet. Even if Mitch McConnell squeaks into the Majority Leader chair, if we lose on home turf in multiple races in places like Kansas and Georgia and lose some governors (especially the high-profile Scott Walker) it’s a poor showing.
But if the Republicans take everything above plus North Carolina, protect most of their governorships (including Wisconsin) and pick up one or two in a heavily Democratic state (Illinois?) they’ll have legitimate reason to celebrate.
How will ties be determined? Will multiple prizes be awarded?
Don’t you worry your pretty little head about that, SOS.
I’m a-gonna win this here scrap; there will be no ties.
P.S. Back in 2010, the prize was an appearance on the Main Podcast. There were two “winners” who more-or-less tied: Kenneth and Pilgrim. They were both invited on the podcast.
P.P.S. In 2010 the vast, vast majority of the Ricochetoisie drastically overestimated GOP gains.
+9, probably lose in NH. Worst case +8 with Hagen squeaking by as well.
I predict Fox picks up ten seats in the studio.
I am horrible at this stuff because I am a pessimist by nature.
The Republicans will lose a lot of close races. Harry Reid will control a 50-50 chamber with Joe Biden taking permanent residence in the President’s chair. Thirty-nine million immigrants will be fast tracked to voting citizenship. Then we move to Australia.
If this happens I am going to jump off a bridge. We have a brand new one here in Cleveland over the Cuyahoga River and I might be the first. You’re lucky to have Australia as an option.
R’s hold on to Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky. Pickup MT, WVa, SD, Ark, LA, and Alaska, but fail to win in CO due to massive voter fraud, Iowa due to Iowans deciding that they don’t want two Republican Senators, and NC because NC is not the same state that it was when it had Jesse Helms.
A: 51 seats
B: Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia
Lose Kansas to Greg Orman
Are there Ricochet ties?
A) 53 Republican seats.
B) Republicans win Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Georgia (eventually), and North Carolina.
Republicans lose in Kansas and New Hampshire.
Republicans hold 55 (or more) Senate seats.
Hold all the ones they have (including Kansas and Georgia).
Pick up Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia.
Democrats will hold New Mexico in a squeaker, and Minnesota, New Jersey, and Virginia by narrow margins. If there is a major Ebola or terrorism scare (or Vlad the Impaler does something dramatic) between now and election day, the Republicans might pick up one or more of those seats.
Scott Walker wins in Wisconsin.
There will be a massive shift in polling towards Republicans over the weekend. There will be a lot fewer close Republican victories than expected, and the close victories will be in places Republicans were expected to lose.
Seawriter
Republicans fail to take the Senate. They haven’t made the case to elect them.
It’s a matter of how I optimize my simulation algorithm. Depending on how ties are handled, it may be more profitable (in expectation) to forecast something no one else is — even if the forecast is less likely.
I might agree if the Republicans had run this as a national race. They didn’t.
Therefore, based on race-by-race polling and analysis, I think Republicans win the Senate. The question is, “By how many seats?” I’m still crunching the numbers….be back later (next Wednesday) with my “prediction.”
I think it will be a clean sweep for the Republicans. This is a tidal wave. Even Shaheen in New Hampshire loses. +10 pick up for a total of 55 Republican Senate seats.
As to the House, Republicans gain 10 seats.
The Governor’s seem to be more stable. I’m going to say, no change here. I think Republicans currently hold 28, and that’s what it will be: 28.
EJ, you are a horrible horrible person.
My sane answer is +9, but since that’s been taken, my official contest answer is +11: GOP holds everything, wins all the toss-ups including NH and NC, and pulls off a big surprise in New Mexico.
After which, the country stills goes down the drain.
Pessimism has its privileges. I am always pleasantly surprised as opposed to being eternally disappointed.
And I am never disappointed in the rampant stupidity of the masses. Every society has had its mass delusions that has led to disaster – our Civil War, the French Revolution, the fascist enthrallment of the 20th Century. (Just to name a few.)
The progressive indoctrination that began once the flower children of the 60’s moved into places of authority vacated by the retiring WWII generation has led us to a very dangerous place. Since we no longer teach the virtues of individual liberty, since we no longer believe America to be “exceptional,” and we have begun to sew the seeds of discord and hatred, surely we are capable of reaping that harvest.
I hope to be proven wrong.
Even EJ’s opinion is somewhat optimistic in that it means the Republican’s pick up 5 seats. Only 3 pick ups right now look like a lock for the R’s, and there are a couple of possible losses on the R side in Kansas and Georgia (there is no doubt in my mind that Mitch will win). The true pessimist answer is +1 for the Republican’s: pick up MT, WVa, and SD but lose KS and GA all the other races remain with the party that currently holds them.
Royals
I would love to agree with you, Mike, but I think we’re going to lose in NC. I hope to heaven we don’t, but things don’t look good enough right now.
My specific predictions: Louisiana will be a clear Republican victory and there will be no need for a run-off. Greg Abbott will win and Wendy Davis will lose by a margin exceeding even the most optimistic Republican predictions. Scott Walker will win after legally challenging what are clearly proven to be fraudulent Democratic votes in Wisconsin. This will result in an internecine civil war in the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and turn the state Republican for the next two election cycles.
What I plan to do: Get on Powerlinelive and drink a beer or two. Unless, of course, Ricochet has a livechat as the returns are coming in. Then I’ll be here. Sorry John and Brian.
Where will the best live blogging be on Tuesday night? Suggestions for our traditional election night party? We stay up til 2 or 3 as needed.
I know the answer, but how the heck do you expect me to drink coffee out of a tote bag?