I've added a few comments in a separate post, as I did not think it would fit here.

Will add that we had a rally in front of the downtown church here in St. Cloud, with a march to the Al Franken office.  Two eyewitnesses I spoke to later said 200 were in attendance.  Our city is about an eighth the size of the combined Twin Cities.  Someone called the paper: "we heard about that," but no one came.  

Roy, within the link is a link to his latest research paper which shows the results of the equations he uses.  You can evaluate how well he did later there.  And to Steve, I acknowledge that equations that explain past elections don't necessarily predict future ones.  That's true of all forecasting -- many of my models that I use to forecast are not the ones with the tightest fit to past data.  As to Fair's model, here's the latest memo.  His model shows very strong growth in the second half of the year (4th quarter is higher than 3rd.)  I teach students how to tinker with his assumptions to make their own forecasts; his software permits you to do that if you wish.

I think we could find you a copy.  U. Michigan still keeps it in some form.  Here's a short paper I spun out of it.

When I wrote that, this "which unemployment rate" question came up.  What matters most are two questions.  1. Do people vote about underemployment versus unemployment?  (A:  Don't know, not enough data to study without survey data we don't have, at least last time I looked for it.)  2.  Will people blame the incumbent for their unemployment?  (A:  The longer one is unemployed, the more one blames him or herself.)

Never tested the integral, Don, and that's doable.  Wish I had the time.  Any grad students here looking for a dissertation?

Prof Rahe: Having written a dissertation on this 25 years ago, I would argue that the height of unemployment matters less than the momentum.  As long as the momentum continues downward for the next six months, Mr. Obama is in pretty good shape on the economy.  He needs unemployment to move slightly down, and inflation not to rise.  That puts off much of the change in monetary policy until late this year, and keeps the money spigot from Washington fully open.  That's what a political business cycle is, and Mr. Obama has played it very well to here.

Well yes, but how long it took was incredible.  It was a point of conversation for almost a decade before there was finally a spot for him in a weak year.  And that's not happening soon for Carter or Reed because the game's changed and Owens and Moss will overwhelm the choices at WR.

The Parcells snub is incredible.  On Cris Carter -- big local fave here in MN -- you have Reed and Brown.  Coming up fast are Moss and Owens, the 2 greats of the 2000s.  The cap on number of inductees is going to force some people out, and at least one of Carter/Reed/Brown has to be one of those left out.  And if Art Monk is out, hard to see Cris Carter's way in. 

A day late, but just so you know:  Been a Giants fan since Y.A. Tittle's second tour throwing to Frank Gifford.  Ragtag Patriots were in the league nobody knew about; the most I cared for them was as collectible bottle caps off Cokes.  Only Patriot I've ever really rooted for was Steve Grogan.

My fresh JPP jersey will be out tomorrow night for Giants 34, Patriots 31, and it will be a great great game.  

To be more precise, it has an expenditure-on-foreign-goods problem as well as a government expenditure problem.  It needs to reduce its government spending, but it also needs a way to get back to a trade surplus.  GDP growth would improve, and drain on foreign reserves would stop.  Without an exchange rate adjustment vis-a-vis northern Europe, I do not see how they do that.

It's not for lack of trying.  Bob Barro had a column two weeks ago with one suggestion.  @Herkybird's suggestion of getting the price of a new mark or drachma right is important, but it could be messy as each country tries to out-devalue the other.  

@Ottoman Umpire asks how bad the disruption would be of resolving disputes over the post-eurozone world's value of euro contracts.  That's a big question and many people have taken a whack at it.  Try the analyses of UBS or Barry Eichengreen, to name just two.

Germany exports a great deal to Greece, about 13% of all Greek imports (Italy 2nd at 12%, nobody above 6%.)  That comes to net exports to Greece over $8 billion. The value of those fall if Greece switches out to the drachma because German exporters have to protect themselves from changing exchange rates between the euro and the new drachma (or the new mark and ...)

James, as a son of the Queen City, I need you to go to the Red Arrow.  Heck, even Guy Fieri has gone there, so it's got to be good, right?  No, seriously.  Go.  Get a grinder at Nadeau's.  Pizza (and breakfast!) at Pappy's.  These are a few of my favorite things, all within 10 minutes by car.  Seriously homesick right now, and craving a honey dip from Dunkin's.

We held a conference on opening the border between Armenia and Turkey a few years ago, in Yerevan.  Turkish scholars and business leaders were invited, which made it newsworthy in Armenia.  Same thing:  Awful, tragic events, but no g-word.  And a request from some to stop making that word an issue -- to summarize, "we can do so much to make relations better if you do not insist on this.  When you do, it makes it harder for us in Turkey to push for change."  Your insight into their understanding of Nazism could very well be true -- I don't know, but it sounds right.

Claire, you will not know how wonderful a Christmas gift this post is for me.  Thank you, all the way from my grandparents Culenia and Hovhannes through my father to me on to you.

What's that light?

Tommy's question is answered by evidence on the effects of temporary versus permanent tax cuts.  Since Friedman, most economists have argued that temporary tax increases or cuts are more paid for (or taken in) as changes to savings than consumption.  That evidence is what Taylor is referring to, an argument he's made on the WSJ op-ed pages for years.  (The same holds for temporary business taxes.) 

As Taylor notes, the proper tax incentives should be permanent, pervasive and predictable.  Alas, 2011 tax policy has none of these characteristics, which is why it has failed to appreciably stimulate economic growth.  I hold little hope for a change in 2012; we must wait for 2013.

Margaret Thatcher explained this during her last speech in the House of Commons in 1990.

I cannot hope to improve on Lady Thatcher.