Bio

I am a health economist and an associate professor of medicine at Stanford University. In my misspent youth, I got an MD and a PhD in economics because I couldn't decide between being a real doctor or not, but I have finally figured out what I want to do with my life. Well, mostly.


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Jay Bhattacharya
Name:
Jay Bhattacharya
Hometown:
Los Altos, CA
Joined:
Aug 19, 2010

Recent Comments

Jay Bhattacharya

One major problem with nearly all published calculations of income inequality (including the most prominent ones by people like Piketty and Saez) is that they do not count the actuarial value of health insurance (or other benefits) in their calculations.  They also do not count the value of government transfers (welfare).  When these are accounted for, income inequality looks a lot better than progressives are willing to let on.  Here's a nice paper by Kosali Simon and Richard Burkhauser that makes this point.

Jay Bhattacharya

Two of Vernor Vinge's novels (A Deepness in the Sky and A Fire Upon the Deep) deserve a place in the pantheon.  Ursula Le Guin's Dispossessed and especially Left Hand of Darkness are also great.

Jay Bhattacharya
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.: Can someone explain to me why this post made me cry? · 22 minutes ago

Anything that reminds us of our mortality is a cause for melancholy.  But when it's tinged with a touch of nostalgia -- my mom had a cinnamon spice container just like that!-- it's a sweet melancholy.  Thanks for a fantastic post, SP.

Jay Bhattacharya

I think a lot of the harm will take a bit of time to manifest itself.  For instance, it seems likely that a lot of employers (especially employers of low income workers) will drop insurance coverage.  But it will probably take time for employers to realize that it would financially better for them (and their employees) to stop providing health insurance when they have been providing health insurance for many years and are used to it.  The fiscal impacts of the ACA on the federal budget and on Medicare also balloon over time; so 2014 will be bad, but 2015 will be even worse.

Jay Bhattacharya

David Williamson: Err, no.

It will also hurt the young, because it will make it even harder for them to find (full-time) jobs - but I have no sympathy for 'em - they voted for it, without realizing what was in it - they thought they were getting free health insurance. · 2 minutes ago

David, you're right of course about the young.  An additional reason they will be harmed is that they will be forced (through the mandate/tax) to subsidize insurance for older people.  A politically competent conservative party would be able to take advantage of the harm caused to all of these groups.

Edited on November 9, 2012 at 7:26pm
Jay Bhattacharya

Raxxalan

Indaba

When will the US dollar stop being the world's go to currency? · 3 hours ago

When either Europe gets it's act together or the Chinese stop manipulating the yuan.  Either would be a good competing reserve currency IF they were credible.  The  debt crisis puts the future of the Euro in doubt and China manipulates the yuan to keep it competitive on the export market.  I don't see another viable reserve currency. 

30 minutes ago

That's exactly right -- there's a lot of competition to dive over the fiscal cliff.  But remember, US federal debt has already been downgraded.  In this one area -- currency debasement -- I expect President Obama to excel.

Jay Bhattacharya
Duane Oyen:  Boehner is proposing a combination of the GOP platform, Simpson-Bowles, and Romney positions: don't raise marginal tax rates, some increased revenue is OK as a part of broader tax reform (lower rates, broad base), and reform SS & Medicare entitlements.

Thanks for the link -- it's an interesting read.  The problem, as it has been over the past two years, is that the House cannot accomplish any of these things while the White House stands in the way.

Jay Bhattacharya
liberal jim: While figuring out away not to be blame might be considered clever in some circles, being honest might prove to be more productive in the long run.  The things you listed won't be remembered a decade from now.  

I agree with you that honesty about the fiscal problems we face is important, and that's exactly the strategy I suggest for the Republicans.  And while I also agree that both parties have trouble with this, I'm afraid the Democrats are beyond hope.  Mine anyways. 

As far as whether people will remember these items 10 years from now, I'm afraid I have to disagree.  Even if the particulars are forgotten, the decisions made about these items over the next few months will have profound implications for America and its economy over the next decades. 

Jay Bhattacharya

One way that a Romney administration could really dent Obamacare (the ACA) would be to actually follow the law. 

The ACA requires states to organize insurance marketplaces (called "exchanges"), but if they refuse, it requires the federal government to organize an exchange for them. There's a provision in the ACA which says that people who buy insurance through a federally organized exchange are ineligible for federal subsidies -- see here or here. Without these subsidies, the whole scheme falls apart since there are few low and middle income families who can afford to pay $12,000+ per year to buy the overly generous plans required by the ACA. 

The Obama administration has ignored this provision of the ACA and plans to provide subsidies whether an exchange is federally organized or not.  There's no reason for a Romney administration to follow suit, and it would not require an act of Congress to accomplish.

** edited to correct an embarrassing grammatical error

Edited on November 2, 2012 at 9:38pm
Jay Bhattacharya

Klavan is pretty entertaining.  He's basically telling the story that Peter Wallison tells about the housing/financial collapse, but it sure is more fun to hear Klavan tell it.  I'd hate to be on the receiving end.

Jay Bhattacharya

Optimist.  A polite "I told you so" seems most in keeping with the Ricochet way.

Jay Bhattacharya
Owl of Minerva: I'll just leave this here. · October 23, 2012 at 3:46pm

Thanks for link, Owl:  a brilliant romp through the law of unintended consequences.  Thanks also to everyone else who commented.  I'm still mulling over some of the issues raised. 

Jay Bhattacharya

My favorite rant/reasoned brief against the notion of "social justice" as the left uses it is Tom Sowell's book "Vision of the Annointed".  He relabels it "cosmic justice" which seems entirely appropriate since the proponents of that brand of justice are most concerned with utopian objectives (the end of poverty, the elimination of inequality, etc.) that will only be possible come the eschaton. 

Jay Bhattacharya

Really an excellent letter.   Thanks, Mr. Carter.

Jay Bhattacharya
ConservativeWanderer: The IPAB may not be allowed to ration care today, but what happens later, when some Democratic President and Congress decide to "expand" their authority in the name of more cost-containment? · 36 minutes ago

You have hit on the main problem with how ACA treats Medicare.  It will inevitably lead to a government board making these decisions, instead of doctors, patients, and insurers who stand to lose customers if they do the wrong thing.

Jay Bhattacharya

George Savage

Jay, it feels as though the state is now touted as a lifestyle destination resort for the Merc's "superrich," with prices to match.  Higher taxes fund benefits for the swelling ranks of the government-employee and client classes, keeping the latter marginally content  In this context, Prop 30 is no different than a price increase at the beachfront Ritz Carlton: annoying but manageable.

George, this is exactly right.  Of course, the corollary to this is that there are just not enough rich people in California to fund all the possible utopian schemes, much less to pay for the upkeep of roads, retirement packages for policemen and teachers, and the like. 

Edited on October 4, 2012 at 12:29am
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