Tell me more about "the propaganda victory that comes from the US leaving in defeat." I've always wondered whether that sort of thing really matters. Do you think there are well established examples of propaganda victories -- as opposed to hard realities -- so powerful that they should be factored into whether a war should be continued?
The withdrawal from Somalia was a very effective recruiting tool for al Qaeda -- in fact, the battle scenes from Black Hawk Down were circulated amongst jihadis to demonstrate that Americans could be beaten. Presumably if the Taliban-al Qaeda alliance regains control of Afghanistan, that will have similar recruiting value. James's preference for emphasizing the more tangible strategic costs is perfectly defensible, but if you are going to worry about blowback it seems like "The Americans are in Afghanistan" is not as likely to capture the imagination of young men inclined toward radicalism as "The Americans left Afghanistan with their tails between their legs."
If we withdraw prematurely from Afghanistan, it becomes a haven for al Qaeda again. It's wishful thinking to pretend otherwise. When there was little help from the Pakistanis, the leaders of al Qaeda easily crossed the border and took refuge in Pakistan. There are major operations against al Qaeda going on in Pakistan now. The only reason the al Qaeda leadership doesn't return to Afghanistan is because coalition forces are there in strength. Add in the propaganda victory that comes from the US leaving in defeat, and it's just insane to be calling for withdrawal now. Maybe COIN will fail (Obama has made that more likely), but the cost of giving it a chance is dwarfed by the cost of not doing so.
If you were wondering whether Friedman is often spotted being chauffeured around in a Towncar in Washington, DC -- despite the fact that there's a Metro stop with plenty of nearby parking in Bethesda, where he lives -- the answer is yes, he is.
I dissent. "The Jewish State" is a useful phrase to break up the monotony of copy, and is certainly preferable to using "Israel" repeatedly within a few hundred words. It's no different than switching off between "the French government" and "Paris" or "the Obama Administration" and "the White House." I will continue to use it (as I did in this post), and if you have an aesthetic problem with that, too bad. There's no accounting for taste.
Re: In Afghanistan, Is Failure the Only Option?
Conor Friedersdorf: John,
Tell me more about "the propaganda victory that comes from the US leaving in defeat." I've always wondered whether that sort of thing really matters. Do you think there are well established examples of propaganda victories -- as opposed to hard realities -- so powerful that they should be factored into whether a war should be continued?
The withdrawal from Somalia was a very effective recruiting tool for al Qaeda -- in fact, the battle scenes from Black Hawk Down were circulated amongst jihadis to demonstrate that Americans could be beaten. Presumably if the Taliban-al Qaeda alliance regains control of Afghanistan, that will have similar recruiting value. James's preference for emphasizing the more tangible strategic costs is perfectly defensible, but if you are going to worry about blowback it seems like "The Americans are in Afghanistan" is not as likely to capture the imagination of young men inclined toward radicalism as "The Americans left Afghanistan with their tails between their legs."