For the past few weeks I've been feeling (viz. Rob Long's column in Time)  a sort of dreadful optimism where I land on:

Romney 55%

Obama 45%

I realize this is without basis save for some anecdotal evidence. For example, why are the early vote totals in CO and other states not breaking for Obama? Why are PA and MN more in play than last month? Why do indies give Romney an edge by double digits when asked about the economy? I could list more but I'm home sick and can't muster the energy to dig up my citations like i should. But in short the vibe of election feels like the "undertow" Ben D. described this week in his column. And for one last bit of pessimistic cheer, here's my custom RCP map where Romney doesn't take Ohio but can take just one  of WI, PA, MI and win: Http://Bitly.com/TzoopB

Bears 28, Titans 10

As to beating the 49ers and Houston? Well, if Romney can win....

2,500 acres? May I suggest a Ricochet Meetup for anyone near ... any airport with flights to the UK? Being allergic to the noble species precludes me from deep experience. However, visits to my sisters 10-acre kennel (plebeian, tiny thing) have me admiring Bernese mountain dogs. And, if my three sons wear me out begging for canine companionship, I could be persuaded to get a Wheaton terrier -- nicely midsize, great for boys and romping and, ah, hypoallergenic. But shouldn't you get a Mastiff, I mean, just for pulling the barley wagon to the mash vats?

Neither fish nor fowl. It's not satire in that it doesn't make fun of the tedious folks who are decrying The Cliches About Mitt. But nor is it a comedy piece either because ... it's just not that funny. Fish? Fowl? Smells worse than both.

Rob, as I finished reading your post, tears welled up in my eyes. I had heard the news as I was parking, and as I walked into my office, I thought, "I've got to go on Ricochet." What struck me as I logged on is: what you and Peter and the team here have created isn't just a place for dialog, you've created a community where we can, because of your high standards for civility, come together to grieve.

I am Andrew's age and have my third child due in a few weeks. After my deep sense of loss for my values -- that of a solider realizing a general has died -- my thoughts flew to Susie and his kids. Truly, as you said, their loss is incomparable to ours.

You are in good company, Rob; St. Paul says in his letter to the Romans "...we do not know how to pray as we should, but the Spirit Himself intercedes for us with groanings too deep for words."

As a father, husband and a fellow happy warrior, that sums it up for me.

I want to believe Ann Coulter, Hugh Hewitt and all the other happy defenders. But just when I do, Romney does another calculated move that seems to playing a game of moving an incremental data point some staffer has suggested will play well. Like waffling back in November on Gov. Kasich union fight. Or other examples mentioned by Prof. Rahe, above. In contrast, when I hear Sen. Santorum give a full-throated, smack down to the near-religious presupposititions behind radical environmentalism, and then (finally, someone!) connect the dots to energy policy, I find myself literally fist-pumping in the car on the commute home. Is this not what we want? A happy warrior?

I say, lawyers to the rescue. If pot is legalized, it will soon, like everything else, be commodified. Smaller growers will be gobbled up by mega-growers; you'll be able buy pallets of it in Costco, or locally sourced micro-pot in Whole Foods. But best of all, the FDA will have to LABEL it and revealed therein will be the fact that with it's high tar content, Mary Janes cause, yes, lung cancer. Righteous outrage will ensue. Delicious irony as the potheads who can't afford the "good stuff" defend Monsanto. Eventually the public outcry about second-hand pot smoke will waft it's way to various state capitals as horrified mothers tell of potheads making their children fall off swings at parks and playgrounds. And then, like the sweet cigarillo before it, pot will be ... Outlawed.

Even with these glasses, Star Wars Episode 1 still sounds like one of my speechwriters wrote the dialogue.

"So this is how Gallup measure voter intensity?"

You say these will help me identify actual Tea Partiers?

Besides an unsightly divorce, would anyone care to illuminate what exactly this "baggage" is, and more to the point, why independents might find such baggage distasteful? I keep hearing about these vague things, but I think independents are likely to be pretty forgiving. Did I miss some Michael Vick-level impropriety?

My pursuit of Happiness started by "dawn's early light" as my baby sons, wife, grandparents, niece, bro- and sister in law and I all headed down to Huntington Beach for the Surf City 5k. I pushed the double-wide jogger and grew dismayed as men with tendons right out of "Runners World" blew past, and my toddlers starting their own Revolution in front of me, grabbing each others Cheerios. Hundreds of thousands of merrymakers, some running in full Lady Liberty garb, others with beach cruiser bikes be-decked in bunting, kept cheering us on. Now I head back to grandpa's grateful for this great land; but far moreso that I can hand my children over to a willing relative while I nurse a cold lager -- what a country!

I voted for Mitt in the '08 primary and liked what he had to say. While I don't have links to support this, I can say from an anecdotal standpoint that, at the time, I personally spoke to many conservative, or center-right Christians who told me that they absolutely could not vote for a Mormon. I don't believe they were expressing their misgivings from a bigoted standpoint. But almost all of them regarded the Mormon faith as a cult with serious deviations from settled church doctrine on the deity of Christ among other issues. One of them went so far as to tell me that if someone would believe that way, he would have to question their judgment & intellect and therefore fitness for office. I, myself have since grown disillusioned with Mitt's Romneycare baggage which is a far bigger albatross. But frankly, I think the aforementioned stat of 25% by Raconteur is, no pun intended, very conservative. You may say that those Christians may have things wrong, shouldn't mix politics and religion, or whatever. But they are absolutely sincere. Would they vote for Obama? No. But many will stay home.

Arab Spring Bike Week

Great anecdote, Rob. If I had to pull the lever today, I'd go with Mitch.

I heard Pawlenty interviewed before and he was snoozy. Sounds like somebody told him that he's got to show some spunk. He had a conversational way of saying what's wrong. But, the interview revealed the tall grass of the deficit and debt; he's smart to keep it on inflation but the whole coming implosion still needs to be more ... urgent? Relevant? It's too far off in people's heads, there's too much "sky is falling". With no apologies to Stalin, our dialogues need to make this personal: one person's inability to pay their bills is a tragedy, a trillion is statistic.

The Old Testament prophets tried to wake folks up by painting graphic pictures of what the Babylonians would do when they arrived. They would be "dragged off with hooks"; Jeremiah "weeps for the virgin daughter of my people" (i.e. raping & pillaging is coming). Perhaps the GOP could take a page & paint grim, banana republic pictures? Something of the drama is being missed, methinks. Then again, the prophets words weren't heeded, were they?

In-laws? Do you mean my skeet shooting, NR-reading, self-made father-in-law who moved his business from California to Nevada because of the taxes? That huge Irishman who wept when I asked for his daughter’s hand? Or the mother-in-law who is reading Sarah Palin’s biography, hangs on the back of a Harley and calls her grandson “Dude”?

Not sure what you mean, Claire: Ricochet is EXACTLY like Thanksgiving with my in-laws.

I’m not all that active on the site yet. Working too hard on getting Merlin Froyd elected in CA-28. Hope to contribute soon.

But I am a bonafide Ricochet podcast addict; I cannot go a week without the erudite Robinson, staccatoed Lileks and smooth-hand Long.

Long may they ‘Cast their lines into fun and fertile waters. Thanks for everything.

Med: "So, Steve, tell me. Is true that you know what every iPhone user is doing at all time? And where they are? Tell me more about this."