About a year and a half ago, I downloaded the entire catalog of econtalk episodes with the goal of listening to every episode. I am about 200 episodes in. I listen in the car, when I am exercising, while I am doing house or yardwork, or wherever.
The experience has had a significant impact on my life for the better.
BrentB67: Great analysis - you nailed it. Although I wouldn't characterize it that they are taking speculative positions with our (taxpayer) money, but we are underwriting their outsized losses.
Right, it's more indirect than them just using taxpayer funds directly.The argument is that they are able to finance their operations at below market costs because their is an implicit guarantee on their debt. In other words, they are more or less Government Sponsored Enterprises.
James Pethokoukis: Also, if you read the study I mention, it addresses many of the obvious criticisms such as "there was all that pent up demand!" and such · 1 hour ago
Pent up demand. I love that argument. Even Great Depression scholar David Kennedy falls for that:
World War II fuels the phenomenal economic growth of the quarter century after 1945 in all kinds of ways. It creates a big pent-up consumer demand, which is explosively powerful after 1945, and people are seeking to buy products that weren't available in wartime, and they've got all these fat paychecks from the war era that they weren't able to spend then, that they spend after the war.
By that rationale, the way to generate economic growth is to just make it illegal for people to purchase goods and services that they want, and then all of a sudden remove those restrictions. That is even more incoherent than the Keynes story.
My high school album that I keep going back to is Loveless by My Bloody Valentine, which recently celebrated it's 20th anniversary. Best album of my lifetime.http://m.wired.com/underwire/2011/11/my-bloody-valentine-loveless/
About a year and half ago, Meredith Whitney appeared on 60 minutes predicting hundreds of billions of dollars in municipal bond defaults in the next 12 months. This never happened.
The flaw in her analysis was that she never accounted for the fact that municipalities also saw these problems and many of them made adjustments - they cut spending and looked for way to raise revenue.
Whitney saw a car headed off a cliff and never took into account the fact that the driver may start applying the brakes.
I think this kind of analysis makes the same mistake. It does not take into account people changing their behaviors. Some people will adjust their lifestyles and slow their spending down to account for the fact that it's not likely to last until their life expectancy.
So, yes, there is a problem, but perhaps not as significant as this study implies.
Wonderful review. I can't wait to see it. Whit Stillman's first two movies (Metropolitan and Barcelona) are two of my favorite movies ever. Also of note, Metropolitan, was on NR's best conservative movies of the last 25 years list.
"war materiel was valued incorrectly and therefore the GDP data overstate economic conditions."
I love this point. My understanding from Higgs and Russ Roberts' teaching of Higgs, is as follows: GDP has no mechanism for valuing the utility of the goods we produce, so it relies on prices to approximate utility (higher prices mean higher utility). But when the price system is more or less rigged because of price controls and rationing and government spending, as it was in WWII, GDP becomes meaningless in terms of measuring our economic well-being.
Todd - Something does not have to be sold to show up in GDP. An increase in inventory would increase GDP even though those items have not been sold yet. Also, if something is exported (produced in the US and sold in Canada), this would increase GDP although US citizens did not consume the product. Conversely, when we import something, this does not increase GDP even though we consume it.
I thought that inventory only shows up in GDP only to the extent that it shows up in someone else's income - the suppliers of the materials and the labor. The difference between the market value and the cost of the inventory (i.e. profit) only shows up in GDP after it is sold.
Big Green: Todd - It does not measure what we consume at all....it only measures what we produce. It is a pure formula that subtracts net imports (items we consume but don't produce). If everything we consumed was produced by China and we only sent them $ bills for it, our GDP would be zero. Conversely, if we exported everything we produced and had no imports, we would have positive GDP but no c0nsumption (this obviously excludes any investment in capital).
But if an item is not consumed - sold - than how can it show up in GDP? For an item to show up as being produced, it has to have been sold. I think we are talking about different things.
EJHill: Peter, there is one major equation most modern economists omit. While the United States went massively in debt it did so to its own citizens. By January 3, 1946 more than 85 million Americans — half the population — purchased War Bonds totaling $185.7 billion.
Those billions were returned plus interest. And with their War Bond savings Americans built homes, bought cars, bought into a new gadget called television and raised their families.
There is a good reason that most economists omit that fact! (Well, almost all economists.) Just because we borrow from ourselves, doesn't make the burden go away. The burden of the spending is reflected in the fact that taxes still need to be raised to pay the money back, regardless of who the lender is.
Saying that the debt is not a burden if we borrow it "from ourselves" justifies any level of government spending. It implies that the government can spend an unlimited amount of money as long as only Americans are allowed to lend the money. But we know that's not true.
Someone above made the comment that the GDP measures what we produce, not what we consume. I think that's half right. It does measure what we consume, but it does not directly measure the utility we get from the consumption of those items. What it does is use prices to approximate this. It assumes that the utility we get out of those items produced/consumed is reflected in the price of those items. In other words, higher priced items reflect greater utility. But in WWII, prices were meaningless, primarily because of rationing. There were many items that were just not available at any price. As a result, GDP was not very meaningful.Listen to Econtalk episode with John Papola for more on this.
Re: EconTalk -- A Confession of Addiction
About a year and a half ago, I downloaded the entire catalog of econtalk episodes with the goal of listening to every episode. I am about 200 episodes in. I listen in the car, when I am exercising, while I am doing house or yardwork, or wherever.
The experience has had a significant impact on my life for the better.