In 2010 there were 13 Democrat and 12 Republican seats contested. The GOP held all of their seats and picked up 6 from the Ds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2010

This year there are 23 D seats and 10 R seats at stake. If 2012 follows 2010, a shaky proposition to be sure, the GOP would pick up 10 or 11.

Romney is at +7  per Gallup, a historically large gap 3 weeks before the election. My best guess is +8, making it 55-45.

I had a paper route in 1955. I delivered the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald Traveler. I was told that the Globe was the Democrat's paper and the Traveler the Republican's. I had no idea what that meant but the Traveler customers tipped much better than the skinflint Globe readers. That's how it started for me.

A lot of reasons have been expressed in this thread. I believe that the best summation I have seen is this:

http://www.kirkcenter.org/index.php/detail/ten-conservative-principles/

I read this and The Declaration quite frequently.

Clinton popular? Like the Edsel.

He was elected twice with less than 50% of the vote. That was before the impeachment.

Gore should have been a shoo-in - peace, prosperity, the whole nine yards.

Hillary was repudiated for a shuck and jive artist from Chicago because the Clintons severely embarrassed the Democratic Party.

Clinton is a legend in his sychopants' minds

I watched my first political speech in 1952 - Democratic National Convention. I attribute my lack of mental acuity to the effluent I've listened to lo these 60 years.

Almost all of the speeches I've heard were written for the drama critics - the ones who pan Casablanca because because there were no car crashes.

I can spot a great speech in the first five minutes or so. You sense that a story is to be told, an interesting story. Like a great story or a great symphony there is a rhythm and a theme - pianissimo, fortissimo, crescendo, denouement.

The great ones don't come along very often. The good ones are a refreshment. The bad ones are punk rock. The RNC had some good ones. The DNC? Cacophony.

I started to count the number of dogs in my life, but when I got to 15 I had to get a tissue. I only ever bought one, and it was a mistake. I've had all kinds, most were mentioned here, but the most common was the Royal Botswanan Chow Hound.

I've made half hearted attempts at training them but I've found talking to them to be most effective. They get to know you and you get to know them.

I agree with a lot of the folks here. Pound puppies, year to year and a half old, alert, atttentive tail waggers. Stay away from the ones that slobber and lick - they have issues. But most of all remember that you're not getting an accessory. you're getting a friend.

Exclusive! Clint rehearsing the skit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKECvqSVWPA

People are not watching because the election is over. Final ratings to be delivered on November 7.

From Pew research:

"At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today."

http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

The polls are essentially meaningless now. People ain't talking. They're waiting  to get the deed done. Wisconsin recall: exit polls showed Walker losing big. Result: Walker won by same margin as he did in 2010.

I, personally, have hung up on pollsters at least 10 times in the last two months - central Florida, ground zero. A couple of my friends say the same.

2010 saw a huge anti-Obama vote. I see that as a harbinger.

Many studies over the years have shown that an average person's politics are shaped (in order of importance) by parents, immediate family, friends, relatives, coworkers, groups (Church, clubs) ... with media last on the list. 

Those who watched will influence many more. Of this a majority is built.

Very few do. Pew recently reported that their completion rate, how many completed interviews per contact, is down to 9%. In 1997 it was 37%.

I, myself, have hung up on pollsters more than 10 times in the last couple of months. Ten times you say? I live in Florida - ground zero in the long twilight struggle.

The left views man as an economic animal. He ain't. All of the seminal changes in history have come by appealing to the nobility of the human souls. From Christ to the Civil War to Ronald Reagan and points in between ideas, not gold, have changed the world.

Romney and Ryan are focusing on fundamentals - patriotism, pride, self respect - rather than promising goodies.  It is lighting a fire that I have not seen in 70 years. USA! USA! USA! It's worked before and it's working now. The gloom and doom crowd are about to be washed away and they know it. Bye bye.

"At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today."

http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

Polling never sees the black swan coming. It actively and purposely erects a giant blind spot. It assumes that the system in not chaotic. Guess what? It is.

The have been five "wave" election in the last 80 years - 1932, 1952, 1980, 1994 and 2010 - roughly a generation apart. The major military involvements have occurred in a generational cycle since 1776. 

"Something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones?".

Bob Dylan, Ballad of a Thin Man.

Jon Stewart is the best spokesman the conservatives have had in a long time.  Liberals listen to him, dare I say?, religiously. When he skewers the port side he is devastating. Take a look at this:

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/jon-stewart-blasts-media-for-wasting-our-time-with-palin-emails/

Or perhaps this:

http://www.humanevents.com/2012/08/06/even-jon-stewart-thinks-harry-reid-is-a-terrible-person/

Liberal Jim,

I don't dispute your characterization of the DOD. However, misappropriations in non-defense spending result in some overall economic impact, inadequate defense gets people killed.

genferi,

You are correct. Unfortunately there is a very vocal, influential lobby that is intent upon gutting defense. I consider any tactic used to combat their efforts the be not only legitimate but a duty.

Roy

Section 8.

To define and punish Piracies and Felonies committed on the high Seas, and Offenses against the Law of Nations;

To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;

To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years;

To provide and maintain a Navy;

To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the land and naval Forces;

To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions;

To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;

Defense is a Constitutional imperative. It is a different animal, subject to different criteria.

Just barely out of the time frame - 1961 - The Hustler. Paul Newman, George C. Scott, Piper Laurie and Jackie Gleason. It lost to West Side Story for best picture.  Scott notoriously did not appear to accept an Oscar for Patton because he thought his role in The Hustler was a better performance.

Most of my favorites are black and white. Sparse sets, stark emotions and great dialogue. 

Another favorite is Twelve Angry Men. Fonda was his customary wooden self but the rest of the cast, ubiquitous character actors all, were fascinating. Most of them appeared in many more films than the major stars. Most stars were type cast, the supporting actors played a far greater range of roles.

The campaign has not yet begun. It used to begin after the World Series but that went bye the bye with the extended playoffs. Only nuts like us are paying attention now. Late September, early October is when the independents and undecideds become interested.

There's lots to be said for hiding your hole cards and hoarding the bucks until then. Any statements or positions stated now are fodder for the other guy's campaign. 

Lest we forget, Reagan was behind Carter in the polls until the day before the election. It was a landslide. The mood of the country, as I see it, is almost exactly like 1980.