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Gretchen Whitmer Doubles Down
Last week, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer doubled down, extending the Michigan lockdown until mid-May. The new executive order is in modest ways an improvement on its immediate predecessors, which I described two weeks ago in a post entitled “The Wicked Witch of the Midwest.” One can now operate a motorboat; buy paint for one’s house and seeds for one’s garden; and even travel to a second home. In other ways, however, ”the temporary requirement” that everyone “suspend activities that are not necessary to sustain or protect life” is pure idiocy. It still rules out elective surgery while allowing abortion – presumably because, in the world of Gretchen Whitmer and today’s feminists, the not-yet-born are not really alive. Our governor has even had the effrontery to defend abortion as “life-enhancing.” In Michigan (and in some other states), some must die so that others can enjoy themselves.
Given what we knew and what we did not know, when the lockdowns began, it may have made sense for a brief time to systematically minimize human contact. The Wuhan coronavirus is exceedingly contagious, and we then possessed no herd immunity. On the Diamond Princess, virtually everyone was exposed, 18% of those on the cruise contracted the virus, and nearly 10% of those who did contract it died. In Wuhan, China and in northern Italy, the epidemic overwhelmed the health system – and there was reason to fear that the like might happen here. The aim of the lockdowns was not to prevent the spread of the virus. Given how easily it could be contracted and the absence of a vaccine, it was not even possible to impede it for long. Our aim was modest: to delay its onset and slow down the spread in the hope that our hospitals and health professionals could cope.
We know a bit more now. We know that most of those who contract the disease are asymptomatic; that the asymptomatic are, nonetheless, contagious; and that those most apt to die are elderly individuals and others with underlying health conditions. In Michigan, the mean age of those who die is 76 and the average age is 74.5. In Italy, where half of the population is over 47, I read that 99% of those who died suffered from other comorbidities. In New York, 94% suffered from at least one comorbidity and 88% suffered from more than one. Those who go on cruises on ships such as the Diamond Princess are, as one wag put it, “the newly wed and the nearly dead.” It was the presence of a great many old folks on the voyage that explains the high mortality rate.
We do not have a precise fix on the mortality rate among those in the larger population who contract the disease. Estimates based on real evidence vary between .1% and .8%, but it is clear that fewer than 1% of those who become ill die, that the age-structure of the population determines the morbidity rate, and that we are better situated than the Italians. In the United States, half of the population is under 38.5.
We also not have a precise fix on the rate of contagion. In Santa Barbara, it may be as low as 15%. In the city of New York, it may be as great as 25% — and, of course, if the lockdowns really did slow the spread, those figures may understate the real rate. Moreover, the disease is apt to spread more slowly where the population is not dense.
Nor can we be certain regarding the price we will pay for the shutdown. How many will die or be permanently damaged because surgery was delayed? We do not know. How many businesses will collapse? How many individuals will go bankrupt? We do not know. Will the federal debt grow to a level that will cripple the country down the road? We do not know. The only thing that is clear is that the price will be exceedingly high and that the longer the lockdowns go on, the worse things will be. A policy that may have been rational to begin with is surely irrational now.
There are four things wrong with Gretchen Whitmer’s latest executive order. First, time tells, and her extension of the shutdown greatly compounds the damage already done. Second, if it had a legitimate purpose, the shutdown long ago served that purpose. Our hospitals and our healthcare system were not overwhelmed, and we are now better equipped for the onslaught to come. Third – and perhaps most important – the latest executive order is predicated on a patently false premise. Its aim is not only “to prevent the state’s health care system from being overwhelmed.” Its purpose is also “to suppress the spread of COVID-19.” This last aim is beyond our capacity, and the time will never come, even if a deus ex machina were to deliver to us an effective vaccine next week, when we will “suppress” its spread. After all, there are flu vaccines, and every year the flu nonetheless infects something like 10% of all Americans. If the lockdown is not to end until the coronavirus is suppressed, it will never be lifted. Utopian ends inevitably give rise to tyrannical measures.
The fourth defect requires further discussion. Gretchen Whitmer’s executive orders apply with equal force to every county in the state. But what might make some sense in Detroit, the county in which it is situated, and in the nearby counties makes no sense elsewhere. Take a look at this map of the state and run your cursor over the various counties.
In some of these counties, as you can see, the number of fatalities exceeds 1,000. In quite a few others, no one at all is known to have died from the Wuhan coronavirus. In counties where the spread is still rampant (if there are any such counties), a brief extension of the shutdown may make some sense. Elsewhere, it is patently absurd. And where there is no public health rationale for maintaining the lockdown, Gretchen Whitmer’s policy is nothing less than tyrannical. Thanks to the lady’s punitive instincts, her penchant for posing and preening before the cameras, and her desire that Joe Biden make her his running mate, we in Michigan are committing suicide for fear of death.
Published in Domestic Policy
I’m not going to sign any bill that takes authority away from me or from any future governor. The powers of the Executive Office are incredibly important, especially in times of crisis where lives are on the line.
— Gretchen Whitmer
That’s all I need to hear to be fully behind any effort to recall
KarenGretchen.We do not know this. All data suggests an asymptomatic rate of 30%.
30% is not most.
From the map, it looks like nuking Detroit would solve a lot of problems . . .
How would you tell? Have you seen Detroit lately?
This also is not yet known.
The worldwide CFR is 6% or 60X seasonal influenza. Berkeley disputes the Stanford study from last week. However, the worst that the seasonal flu gets is 0.1% COVID is absolutely worse.
Case in point, Seasonal flu never overwhelms NYC hospitals.
What I read — e.g., the Santa Barbara study — suggests more than that.
I did see the comparison between Detroit today and Hiroshima 50 years after we dropped the A-bomb on it. The Japanese city was alive and thriving, while Detroit looked desolate and ruined as if were nuked . . .
However, all other evidence aside – If the purpose of the various lock downs was to prevent overwhelming the hospital system, then in the vast majority of jurisdictions this goal has been achieved.
We now have access to testing nationwide.
Given that we should be able to open in the vast majority of jurisdictions and only worry about further actions if cases spike locally.
Given that testing has skewed heavily toward those who present (e.g., at hospitals) with the disease, it would obviously tend to understate asymptomatic cases. Now that antibody testing is available, we’re getting a better sense of how many people have actually been infected. Unfortunately, that doesn’t really tell us how many are asymptomatic, since a patient might easily overlook mild cold symptoms that lasted a day or two several weeks previously, and so be counted as asymptomatic when in fact he or she was simply barely-symptomatic.
As with almost everything else about this disease, we just don’t have good numbers. I’ve seen numbers suggesting the asymptomatic rate may be as high as 80%; others that put it just under half of all cases.
Before I made any attempt to estimate the actual rate of asymptomatic infection, I’d like to see numbers from the elementary school population. My guess is that they are both more infected and less symptomatic than the general population.
Paul,
I have been considering posting one of my drafts. Your post has convinced me to go forward.
Regards,
Jim
I hear stuff like this about Calif all the time. As though there are no real people caught in a situation beyond their control. I mean, sure it’s a joke: just nuke it! But it doesn’t lessen the frustration.
Also it does seem like Detroit has made some strides in getting itself back together. (Before this new crisis hit.)
Some progress, but it is a long way from what it was in the Sixties.
There was a study at a major New York Presbyterian Hospitals where all pregnant women were tested for COVID-19. 85% did not have COVID-19. But of the 15% who did have COVID-19, 88% of them, or 13.5% of the total were asymptomatic, and only 12% or 1.5% of the total had symptoms.
Now the population is of younger women, not all human beings, especially a 67 year old man like me. But it suggests that there could be a whole bunch of people, and far more than 30%, who had had COVID-19 are asymptomatic.
Not just problems relating to Chinese coronavirus.
I think it’s 50% display zero symptoms
100 deaths per million is a ‘typical’ flu season in US.
The Diamond Princess had a CFR = 1%, not 10%.
The worldwide CFR is wrong because the denominator (number of positive cases) is too low and the numerator is probably inflated
Seasonal flu is spread over the season. For reasons having to do with the lack of herd immunity, Covid-19 comes on much faster. If the worst that seasonal flu gets is .1% and Covid-19 is somewhere between .1% and .8% it might well be judged to be far worse. The key difference between seasonal flu and Covid-19 is the absence of herd immunity. So the number of infections will, indeed, be far greater. But the fact that there are more cases does not mean that the fatality rate per case (as opposed to the fatality rate per diagnosed case) is higher. A small proportion of the actual cases are diagnosed. That has to do with the large number of asymptomatic cases.
You are right. The line between asymptomatic and hardly symptomatic at all is hard to draw. I avoided providing hard numbers for a reason. We do not yet have enough to go on.
You are right about the Diamond Princes. My slip, alas.
Agreed. But I think we do have enough information to tell us that this disease, which can be so alarmingly acute in the elderly and already sick, is surprisingly benign in the young and healthy. I joined many in arguing weeks ago for a more selective shutdown strategy, one focused on protecting the elderly while letting most of America go about its business. I don’t know that that would have been the best choice; I think it would have been better than what we ended up doing.
You’re all on notice.
Too late, 50+ years of democrat mayors have already turned much of it into a wasteland….you would just make the rubble bounce
98% asymptomatic in a North Carolina prison.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX?
utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosvitals&stream=top&fbclid=IwAR3lqia3GZqb932mjK9qe_KVc2WlC7tXZ1szCm7wfUJTYDbK0pp1F9zNqno
Not in the US which has a ratio of 5 negative tests for every 1 positive test. 1/6 is not skewed heavily to those who present with the disease.
In South Korea, because of their aggressive contact tracing, they performed a total of 614K tests to discover 10.7K cases (which is 60:1). In their data, there is a 30% asymptomatic rate.
So your statement is incorrect.
I would like a link to the “Santa Barbara study”, please. It did not show up on my google search first page.
No, because the CFR is not the IFR. Case Fatality Rate comes from the number of confirmed cases vs deaths associated with confirmed cases.
Diamond Princess data has been overcome by the SK data, among other places.
Point estimates are meaningless. Without information regarding how long a period after the administering of the test they monitored for symptoms the point estimate is meaningless. The median number from infection to expression of symptoms is 5 days. By 11.5 days 97.5% of people who become symptomatic have shown them by then. The outlier for symptoms to appear is about 20+ days.
I’m sorry, but I think you’re mistaken.
In the United States, testing has until very recently (and probably still), been performed disproportionately on people who were exhibiting symptoms compatible with a diagnosis of COVID-19. If that is true, then it stands to reason that most people who tested positive for the disease were symptomatic; they came from a population that was pre-selected for being symptomatic.
It doesn’t matter how many negative diagnoses were found in that population. What matters is that, of all the positive diagnoses in the country, a disproportionate number of them occurred in a population that was pre-selected for being symptomatic.
My statement has nothing to do with the South Korean experience, and so citing it is irrelevant.
This is the list of symptoms. Imagine how many inmates in prison ask for help with these and are evaluated. I have * the ones I think might get overlooked in a prison.
Fever
Cough*
Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
Chills
Repeated shaking with chills
Muscle pain*
Headache*
Sore throat*
New loss of taste or smell*
Henry,
Right. Do we accurately know the ratio of infected symptomatic people to infected asymptomatic people? I don’t think so. There could be huge numbers of asymptomatic people who have been infected. Their immune systems took care of the virus in short order. This matters a great deal as we go forward towards herd immunity.
Regards,
Jim