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The Pro-Shutdown Crowd Shifts to Bad Analogies and Memes
The debate over whether to continue lockdowns well into summer or immediately phase-in a cautious reopening based on CDC and other recommendations has shifted to bad analogies and memes. Like the one below. Dr. Kevin Folta is a plant biologist from Florida whom I respect and usually agree with on food biotechnology issues.
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His analogy fails mostly because its predicates are completely false. Then it gets worse. I’ll let you figure it out.
I’m especially offended suggesting that shutting down over 22+ million jobs and the businesses that created them is somehow “uncomfortable treatment.” Tell that to the 31-year-old husband and father of a toddler or two who, along with his spouse, have lost their jobs and incomes while staring mortgages and car payments (and more) in the face. Uncomfortable, indeed. I suspect that Dr. Folta is still getting a paycheck.
A better analogy might be that you’ve come down with a communicable disease that is dangerous to others, and your livelihood has to be put on hold while you recover and shelter in place. And for everyone with the disease — 96% of whom will recover — 385 others have to stop their livelihoods and shelter in place at the same time, even if they’re not sick (or have recovered). That’s the ratio of our population to confirmed cases. The ratio of newly unemployed (over the past four to five weeks — and wait until the report on Friday, April 23) to confirmed cases is 26:1.
But there are other flawed analogies making their way on to social media. I’ll let one of my favorite blog sites share examples and explain the obvious flaws with them.
Published in General
“The doctor tells you there’s a 4% chance you’ll get cancer and you should endure eight weeks of chemotherapy that might kill you, just in case.”
Better analogy?
FIFY
Why don’t people see that the appropriate level of precautions is entirely dependent on local conditions? Dependent on such things as population density, weather & climate, local demographics and public health, culture, and the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths in the local area? One size does not fit all. The west side of the Michigan upper peninsula is very different from Detroit.
The west side of the UP is different than anywhere.
Except NE Wisconsin.
Even though it was my analogy, I’m not convinced it was the best one. My mind is dreaming up other ones that seem closer to reality, but they aren’t nearly as witty.
And/or Northern Ontario.
I would hope most ethical doctors wouldn’t offer out hopes of 10 week “good as new” cures for rare lethal diseases for which they have zero record of curing.
Evidently, he can’t understand that people will have very different risk/reward profiles for this virus. If you’re rich and older….of course you’ll be inclined to give up 10 weeks of income in exchange for the hope of a magical “cure” to come. If you’re a low risk younger person with no job and looming homelessness…..not so much.
Here’s a link that doesn’t make you go through Facebook first. Might want to edit this into the original post:
http://www.bookwormroom.com/2020/04/21/wuhan-virus-reveals-leftists-apocalyptic-hysteria/?fbclid=IwAR1Nh61agnScMdscj3YlPzTUFPORbuShSTZ-u_zPp348otVMjkRzRcZoT9k
I’m all for ending the lockdowns as quickly as feasible, but I take issue with Bookworm’s criticism of the parachute analogy. A parachute eventually, gradually (one hopes) returns to Earth, in the same way several weeks of stay-at-home should gradually end.
It might make more sense to say that Liberators (can we call ourselves Liberators?) are ready to ride the parachute back down to normal life, and the Karens are trying to attach wings and a propeller.