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Work the Problem, Not the Panic
Problem: An illness is going around. The young barely feel it, but for those at risk (generally the elderly) it can be as bad or worse than the flu, which kills tens of thousands in the US every year.
Solution: Limit or eliminate the exposure of those at risk of serious illness. Do this through careful hygiene, quarantine, and with ready access to the drugs which have shown that they work against this illness.
Conclusion: Address the challenge while still getting the world back to normal as quickly as possible before the economy collapses.
Is this really so hard to grasp? Is there something wrong with my logic?
Published in General
Singapore’s sample size is 266 cases with 114 recoveries (as of 3/18/20 06:33 AM), meaning they have 152 cases ongoing. 114 recoveries is not a large enough sample size. Neither is 152 cases ongoing.
Oh, and the only reason they have so few cases is because they implemented draconian controls immediately.
Controls include
Basically everything you accuse people of panic when they do these things.
Was it draconian or merely drastic? I was under the impression most of these were decisions made by individuals and the respective management of companies and schools–not by government.
In any case, I believe iWe is also talking about the additional measure of shutting down every work place for an extended and indefinite period of time. The model you describe above is very different; here in Hong Kong people are asked to work at home if they can, and they have been, and when they can’t they aren’t.
Additionally, the infection is not on the downswing in any country except China. (Assuming China is being forthcoming, which is a big “if”)
How do you tell if it is on the down slope?
If the number of recoveries is greater than 1/2 the number of total cases.
Government mandated after the SARS epidemic.
You’re saying Singapore’s government mandated all these things specifically?
I could call it drastic or draconian (meaning inflexible) but it has been ongoing there since the outbreak started.
I looked into the family chat for date/time stamps, back in Feb people were stocking up on masks. My sister really felt the impact when she her company (Singapore Airlines) medevac a patient on March 4 later determined to be infected. In the family chat the inflection point was March 12, when teams were sent home.
Heh
I don’t think “inflexible” is a synonym of “draconian.” But I haven’t checked the dictionary.
It is a synonym of Severe. Here you go. I am using the 2nd definition of it. Rigorous or severe.
Draconian
[ drey-koh-nee-uh n, druh- ]SHOW IPASEE SYNONYMS FOR Draconian ON THESAURUS.COM
adjective
1. of, relating to, or characteristic of the Athenian statesman Draco, or his severe code of laws.
2. (often lowercase) rigorous; unusually severe or cruel:Draconian forms of punishment.
Oh I am sure they allowed ‘best practices’ to come to the top, but the basics of entry/ access to buildings, public places, and quarantine procedures have been in place since SARS. Companies had to come up with their own plans to implement, but according to the family, there are government mandated responses to government declarations.
The “indefinite” is actually the problem here.
The uncertainty is what is driving the disproportionate response.
Had the declaration(s) had times or conditions associated with them, people would not be in the tizzy they currently are.
Just in the family chat for Singapore.
Note, Singapore (as mentioned above) has 266 cases with 114 recoveries 0 Deaths. Population 5.8 Million.
Yes. Because while I want to take this all very seriously–and that is not a matter of panic–it is exceptionally hard for anyone to sustain a business based on “possibly four months.” What????
I am a teacher, so I am paid by the taxpayer. (No, @bryangstephens. Government workers are not bad people because we work for the government. There are a LOT of us, and we are trying our best to figure out how to help in this crisis in whatever vocations we hold… In my case it’s about shifting kids to online learning, etc., which is hardly critical in a health crisis but important, I think, none-the-less. This is all in the midst of a great deal of disruption, but we will try to do the best we can in a difficult situation to just deliver the services we have been hired to deliver, and those services do matter, which is why the public funds those services.)
I know I will get a paycheck this month. But I have friends who do not have this same situation: professional musicians whose shows have all been canceled in the foreseeable future, people in restaurants who have just been laid off, business owners who are trying to make payroll so that their employees can pay the rent but who only have so many cash reserves and business slowed to a trickle… These are real stories about real friends, and I am petrified for all these folks.
Maybe if they just knew they were going to get behind one mortgage payment? How does the government fund living expenses for the entire country for multiple months???
I’ll hand it to China. While I’m not a conspiracy theorist who thinks this was directed in any way, they’ve still lobbed a bomb that’s destroying our economic arsenal, and that is… terrifying.
And there’s me thinking the word implied government action.
Well, well. That’s more than I had known of.
So you didn’t google the punishments for non-compliance? That is on you.
That was as of 0630 this morning.
Now, 313 Cases with 114 recoveries and 0 Deaths.
US is up to 6510/17/114 – cases/recoveries/deaths
That is why Dave Ramsey recommends a 3-6 month emergency fund.
It’s stupid, but whose interests does it serve? Bureaucrats and central controllers. Whose does it harm? Private business and individuals. Why should we assume it’s just a mistake? They were being slightly curtailed by President Trump. So what do they have to lose by enhancing their power and weakening the private sector? If Trump had reduced Federal power by eliminating un constitutional Federal encroachments most things, at least necessary ones, would have been picked up locally where they belong. The Federal government’s job in this kind of crisis is to gather and distribute information. The US is far too complex to govern centrally and while some think matters have changed since the early 20th century that justify Federal encroachment, it’s just the opposite, complexities are way beyond Federal understanding and control.
Do you deliberately avoid finding actual data? Is it so critical for you to just stick a thumb in the air and make wild worst-case predictions?
Here is hard data from South Korea.
Here’s the money data: 2 deaths under the age of 50, with over 4,500 cases. That is a 0.0004% fatality rate.
Under the age of 30, ZERO deaths.
For those >80 years old, the fatality rate is 10-11%.
Here is what I got from Whitehouse.gov
“15 Days to slow the spread“
15 days.
Where do you get this nonsense?
LOOK AT THE DATA.
In South Korea, the infection is clearly tapering off.
Your doom-mongering is deeply destructive. If I was as wrong as you have shown yourself to be, I would immediately apologize and reassess the available information before commenting further.
It is called math.
When the number of people who have recovered from a disease is greater than 50% of the total cases, that means the number of active cases is decreasing.
Don’t be an ass.
What precisely do you point to when you say I am “Doom mongering”?
Sure. And many people have one. Many people don’t. It’s not always the ant versus grasshopper story though. There are a lot of complicated reasons for that. And, honestly, while I’ve always been fairly fiscally responsible, we didn’t have that kind of emergency fund until we were well into our forties. Business types vary per cash on hand.
I have made no predictions. I have only stated fact.
Show me where I have made predictions or quit bearing false witness against me.
I think that’s great. But there have been mixed messages on this. I’m fine with 15 days. I hear people talking about extending that much further… constantly re-evaluating. I’m not blaming the Trump administration for this. One must always “re-evaluate.” But it helps if there is some certainty of some sort, at least in parts of the country that are not “hot spots.”
Countless times. “Economies Rebound” is a prediction. “Additionally, the infection is not on the downswing in any country except China. ” is not fact.
But it is pointless carrying on this conversation with you. We are not getting anywhere, so I’ll stop wasting your time and mine.
No, it is a statement of fact.
Fine, show me another country where the number of cases is not growing. Today, at this time, that statement is true.
It is not. Some economies do not. Some industries do not. How long will it take airlines to recover if we are shut down for a month? How about hotels? Conference centers? You are sure they will all fully rebound? And this is fact?