Nope, the Blue Wave Is a Myth

 

Shhhhh … don’t tell the Democrat-media-outrage complex, but the Real Clear Politics average of generic ballot polls just narrowed to D+3.9%. Republicans are going to hold the House and gain seats in the Senate. Deal with it, America. According to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, Democrats need a seven-point lead to retake the House. This is due to two reasons: 1) Democrats waste votes in urban areas; and 2) Obama so decimated Democrats’ standing at the state level that Republicans have gerrymandered the bejesus out of districts all over the country.

The Dems won’t be able to climb that hill. We’re going to win, because the left is crazy, and we look sane in comparison. Apparently, “Russia, Russia, Russia!”; “I love socialism!”; “Kill all white people!”; “Abolish ICE!”; “What economic growth?”; etc. are not effective messages. Whodathunkit? And don’t even get me started on the celebration of anniversaries of outrage. Look, people, let’s cut the baloney. The economy is growing, and voters of all backgrounds have more money in their pockets. This is what matters, and if the expert prognosticators say anything else, then just remember what they were saying up until Election Day 2016.

The fact is that the media narrative has not yet caught up and is unlikely to catch up with the data. I Googled “generic congressional ballot” just now, and all I found was articles about the “Blue Wave” from two weeks ago. The media will ignore data that contradicts their narrative, because a Democrat loss in November is a fate too awful for the left to contemplate. Failure to contemplate this fate is a danger to both the left’s political prospects and to public safety. More on the latter in a bit.

Democrats can’t lose, so they will. Similar to the 2016 “Big Blue Wall” narrative, the 2018 “Blue Wave” narrative is a self-feeding juggernaut of over-confidence. This isn’t that complicated. The more voters left, right, and center hear political prognosticators left, right, and center repeat the “Blue Wave” nonsense, the less important it is for any one liberal voter to show up to vote. It’s the classic free-rider problem, and, shock of all shocks (/sarc), it is super-charged among members of the party of handouts. In the social media echo chamber, voter energy turns into voter complacency at warp speed. Besides, I’m sure I don’t need to remind you fellow political junkies that Democrats face a perrenniel midterm election turnout problem any way.

A critic of this argument might say that Republicans, knowing they will probably lose, will be discouraged from voting. However, this converse argument doesn’t apply to Republicans, because we skew older and more likely to be employed. We are out and about working any way on a Tuesday, so we show up. It’s just what we do.

So now that we’ve accepted the fact that we’re going to win this year, let’s move on to dealing with the aftermath. Democrats are going to be just as shocked at their loss this year as they were two years ago. And they will lash out. They will blame Russia; they will harass Trump supporters; possibly door-to-door; and they will destroy property. Let’s hope that no one gets hurt too bad, but as my grandpa said, you can hope in one hand and defecate in the other…

The point is that we need to take all Constitutional measures to defend ourselves against this security threat. The administration needs to tout the Russia sanctions and get its act together on fighting Russian interference in the midterms. Conservatives need to exercise their second amendment right, especially if they live in liberal cities. It’s gonna get ugly.

Published in Politics
This post was promoted to the Main Feed by a Ricochet Editor at the recommendation of Ricochet members. Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

There are 241 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Brian Wolf Inactive
    Brian Wolf
    @BrianWolf

    The post premise was that the Blue Wave was a myth because the average of polls had dipped.  It is to early to tell if there will be a Blue Wave or not no matter what polls say.

    The odds are that it will not be a wave election.  The Senate will either stay the same or Republican control will grow slightly.  The House will most likely narrowly flip to Democrat control. That is no wave.  Even if the House flipped by 40 seats to the Democrats and the Senate held or added a Republican that would not be a blue wave.  The Senate races have been a firewall against a Blue Wave since the start of this cycle and it remains one. 

    It seems likely that the Dems will have an average to below average mid-term.  If something unexpected happens it likely that the Dems will over perform.  The least likely result but still possible is that the Republican retain the House by a seat or two and grow the Senate majority.

    The coverage after any of these events will be breathless, jumbled and divisive.  Little will be reasoned and objective.  If the least likely thing happens and Trump wins the mid-terms it might radicalize some on the left enough to have them turn to violence. 

    By the standard definition of a “Wave” where all competitive races but one or two break all in one direction, in every wave there are one or two races that break the other way, always seemed unlikely. 

    What seems likely is that the Dems will have a conventional win in the House and break even or lose slight ground in the Senate.

    • #241
Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.