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Emmanuel Macron Vanquishes Marine Le Pen
According to early estimates, he is headed for a 31 point win, a landslide, in both the colloquial and technical sense.
Marine did much worse than the polls predicted. They underestimated Macron’s victory by about seven points. As Nate Silver just noted on Twitter, this represents a bigger polling error than Brexit, and a much bigger one than Trump.
Vive La France.
Published in General
Well, now the majority of the French go back to their sleep.
I feel bad for the French, having those two candidates make the final round.
What does the polling error say about the polls?
And are these gaps new, or is this standard for polls?
Putin must be terrified now.
It seems like polling errors abound in the last few years–which makes them meaningless and unhelpful. I may watch them out of curiosity, but that’s about all.
I cannot escape the feeling that France is whistling past the graveyard. Le Pen may be the wrong answer, but the fact that she can be plausibly presented as a (or the) lesser evil speaks to problems for France that are profound.
Vive la France?
The tide of regression is restrained for at least a moment.
They stink.
Or the the French were angered by the possibility of election tampering after the Macron leaks. Maybe it had the opposite effect of some predicted.
Or that Le Pen isn’t the leader the French wanted.
They are poorly conducted and poorly reported. One of the last reports of the polls that I saw was crowing about a 2.5% surge by Marcon. This from a poll with a margin of error of ±3.5%. And they listed the results to one tenth of a percent. Not only was it drivel, it was overly precise drivel.
Miss Berlinski, I hope the people of France are as excited as you are. I hope they’ll think of vanquishing & think M. Macron a vanquisher. I hope they will not think of this as the end of the epic of vanquishing; I hope they think of it as the beginning, instead, & I hope some political arrangement for reform will come out of the legislative elections. I hope you’ll come back to report about vanquishing in that case, too.
I hope the vanquishers will not flatter themselves too much–or think of the third or so of the electorate as the vanquished or the need-to-be-vanquished.
Too bad. I was pulling for Le Pen, because I want the status quo upset. I wanted to see France become an independent nation again, and to either bring the refugees to heel, or deport them.
Well he did give it the old collage try at the end with the surprise hacking and document release. They even had to throw in fake ones to really stir the pot properly? Could it actually have back fired? Of course given the margin maybe even a real scandal might not have sunk Macron.
So it turned a solid win into a massive land slide?
All polls have always had errors. The biggest problem polls have is that journalists are mathematically illiterate for the most part and don’t seem to under stand how error bars work. So they create false expectations about what the polls are actually scientifically saying.
ISIS wants to upset the status quo too. So does Putin. Just tossing over the cart doesn’t lead to improvement it just leads to chaos.
but what is the reason for their foul odor?
Ha! Overly precise drivel… I like that. I think pollsters should report what they find. Your numbers go up by 2.5% then say that. But, if as you point out the error is larger than the increase be sure to point out that this change isn’t statistically significant compared to the last measurement. What should be noted is that polls had Macro from the onset up by about 20%, yet there was a lot of hay made about Le Pen’s chances. This though was done largely in part to over compensate for the fact that with Brexit and Trump people made a much bigger deal out of far closer data. Never say never, but given that polling the likely hood of her wining were very low.
Hillary to announce Le Pen lost because Sexism. Amirite?
Waiting…
Waiting…
An expected and unremarkable result, I fear Macron represents the status quo and is unlikely to have many answers to France’s many problems it also unlikely that he will be able to unite a country in which a third voted for FN and much of the rest only voted for him because he was not Le Pen I also hear that turnout was terrible so add in the milliions of people so disillusioned with politics they couldn’t be bothered voting, seems like the only thing worth celebrating is the fact that Putin’s candidate has been defeated.
Is anyone else annoyed by the Washington Post headline: “France Rejects Le Pen and her Right-Wing Populist Tide!”
In an alternate universe, the Washington Post headline last November was “US Rejects Hillary Clinton and her Left-Wing SJW Horde!”
Macron payer ses impots ou non?
Alors, je suis content d’apprendre qu’ils vont “reupholster” les chaises à bord le paquebot Titanique.
France is done. After the Bataclan and daily reminders that Paris is now a third world squatter’s camp, they STILL voted for the guy that will turn the country over to Berlin and Brussels.
When the French feel truly threatened and their backs are to the wall, they can be the most determined, devious, underhanded weasels on the planet.
I admire that about them.
That and those gougères. Those are delicious.
With Gruyère, Comté, or Emmentaler? Enquiring minds want to know.
Claire thinks that Islam is not a problem. This almost certainly guarantees that she will find out if she is right. The terrorist problem likely will be non-linear with the % of the population that is from the ROP. If the percentage doubles from the current 5-7%, my estimate is that the number of terrorist incidents will triple. Goodbye France. Apres now, the deluge.
Richard, I honestly fear for her life now. An outspoken American female would not be popular with the female-oppressing Islamic System. She could easily become a target of those monsters.